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Observation-based early-warning signals for a collapse of the Gulf Stream

theguardian.com

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Re: Observation-based early-warning signals for a collapse of the Gulf Stream

#221

Post by slownews45 »

beebmam wrote: post #70
matttproud wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The performative stuff has to stop. On the one vacation I am doing since this pandemic began, I saw a place in Northern Italy give out paper straws enclosed in plastic wrapping. You have to be kidding me. It’s missing the point and greenwashing at its finest (unrelated to climate). You’ll meet plenty on the left, especially scientists, who are in favor of nuclear. Where I live (Switzerland[0]), the biggest NIMBY agai…

It's important to remember that plastic waste is virtually unrelated to climate change. They both might be "green" issues, but plastic straws in our oceans aren't going to have any significant effect on warming the planet. They'll just end up causing ecological changes/damage. Malicious actors try to conflate the two. Carbon gas emissions pose an existential threat to the future of human society; plastic straws do no…

You don't have to be a malicious actors. The same folks are pushing both issues and will not talk proactively / positively about anything?

Carbon capture? Hell no!

Micro nuclear? Hell no!

Ban straws? Yes!!

We did the whole glass bottle use thing for milk etc etc - but at some point you realize some of these high profile enviro actions are basic hot air - we'd be better off with getting rid of them entirely and doing things like

1) Carbon tax on all sources of carbon emissions that then pays for ANY solution (carbon capture, solar + battery, mini-nuclear) that folks want to try.

2)

Re: Observation-based early-warning signals for a collapse of the Gulf Stream

#223

Post by tsss »

abeppu wrote: post #153
jacquesm wrote: post #32

After seeing the global chaotic response to COVID I'm convinced that climate change will not receive a meaningful response until it is way too late. It apparently needs to hit the majority of the planet right in the gut (and then preferably the wealthy part) for people to get off their collective asses and do something about it. I'm just about ready to pack it in and hope the next generation is smarter than this one…

The crazy thing is it _is_ hitting the wealthy parts, but that still hasn't galvanized sufficient response. A very partial list of headline impacts in the first world off the top of my head: - US West Coast droughts and fires - Pacific Northwest heat dome - Texas cold snap - Epic floods in Germany - Australian wild fires - European heat waves - Even when rich SF techies were under a terrifying orange sky, our behavio…

SF techies making 100k/year are not rich and definitely not the Germans making 40k. As long as there are no spontaneous hurricanes sucking Jeff Bezos' space rocket out of the sky, nothing will change.

Re: Observation-based early-warning signals for a collapse of the Gulf Stream

#224

Post by jacquesm »

bequanna wrote: post #193
jacquesm wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> That strikes me as close-to-impossible for industrialized nations to achieve. A round-trip flight from NYC to SF emits 1.5 metric tons per passenger. In order to reach 1.61 metric tons an individual would not be able to own a gas-powered car, could not regularly consume meat, could not live in remote areas only visitable by plane etc. So? > Many things people don't even consider "luxuries" (like visiting family ove…

> That is a luxury, whether you consider it one or not is irrelevant. When you emigrate there are certain consequences. Interesting. Why are you (or your political affiliates) the ones who get to decide what is a luxury and what is “essential”? Were you ordained with some divine moral authority? I can’t speak for the rest of the world, but that kind of authoritarian thinking will thankfully never be allowed to prevai…

It's not me who will decide, it will be your wallet.

> but that kind of authoritarian thinking will thankfully never be allowed to prevail in the United States.

That's a very funny statement.

Re: Observation-based early-warning signals for a collapse of the Gulf Stream

#225

Post by inetknght »

raisedbyninjas wrote: post #94
vimy wrote: post #41

Could we restart the Gulf Stream with some kind of technology? In theory?

I did some napkin math once for artificially replacing the salt content in the ocean where it is diluted by glacier runoff. It was on the order of all container ships in operation re-purposed to just dumping salt into the affected region.

Where would you even get that much salt anyway? The ocean perhaps?

Re: Observation-based early-warning signals for a collapse of the Gulf Stream

#226

Post by jjk166 »

jlos wrote: post #177
jacquesm wrote: post #32

After seeing the global chaotic response to COVID I'm convinced that climate change will not receive a meaningful response until it is way too late. It apparently needs to hit the majority of the planet right in the gut (and then preferably the wealthy part) for people to get off their collective asses and do something about it. I'm just about ready to pack it in and hope the next generation is smarter than this one…

There is simply no simple way to address Climate Change like there was with CFC's in the 90s. - 1/3 of emissions come China which has an autocratic leadership accountable neither to its people or the global community. - 70% of emissions come from energy consumption. 35% of all emissions is electricity and heat, and another 15% is construction + manufacturing. - Even if every mode of transportation was fully electric…

Energy and heat are very easy targets to replace with low emission energy sources, indeed far easier than transportation which is one of the few places where fossil fuels make sense because of their high energy density.

China has a higher percentage of its energy coming from low emission sources than the US and single handedly accounts for 45% of worldwide annual investment in renewables, 3 times that of the US.

Carbon taxes are not sin taxes meant to disincentivize carbon production, they are a means to pay for carbon capture. If you can't afford to store the carbon released from burning a ton of coal, you can't afford to burn that ton of coal. Of course any new tax is going to meet friction, but what is will if not the ability to overcome friction when necessary?

Re: Observation-based early-warning signals for a collapse of the Gulf Stream

#227

Post by belorn »

jacquesm wrote: post #32

After seeing the global chaotic response to COVID I'm convinced that climate change will not receive a meaningful response until it is way too late. It apparently needs to hit the majority of the planet right in the gut (and then preferably the wealthy part) for people to get off their collective asses and do something about it. I'm just about ready to pack it in and hope the next generation is smarter than this one…

I do not think lifestyle is going to be the big culprit when looking back, but rather money. Nations prioritize costs over emissions when it comes to generating power. Most home owners prioritize short term costs over long term gains that comes with lower emissions. It not much of a lifestyle choice to burn coals for power or use inefficient heaters, but it is a economical choice.

My hope is not on the next generation to be less willing to sacrifice the environment for short term economical gain. If I got any hope left it will be that politicians figure out how to farm tax money by targeting those that pollute, knowing that they can do so safely because they got popular support.

Re: Observation-based early-warning signals for a collapse of the Gulf Stream

#228

Post by jacquesm »

myth_drannon wrote: post #169
jacquesm wrote: post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For a relatively limited number of people and with a standard of life that doesn't compare to western/northern Europe. It will be 'a bit of an adjustment' to put it euphemistically. I've lived in Northern Canada, which is somewhat comparable to Northwest Russia and sure, it's doable, but civilization as it currently exists in the countries that are exposed to this will cease, the present day number of inhabitants wil…

Novosibirsk, Russia is 1m+ city... with some effort you can live. Russians are obsessed about populating their country all over even in the most inhospitable places vs Canadians who are just fine with living south of 60th parallel.

Go ask them how many of them would like to move family and all to Paris or Amsterdam and how many people from Paris or Amsterdam would like to move to Novosibirsk.

I've lived in Northern Canada. Snow isn't nearly as much fun as it is cracked up to be when there is 6+ months of it in some years (I recall one year where the snowplow went on the tractor in October and we had the last snow in June).

Those areas are well outside the ones where humans feel comfortable most of the time and don't underestimate the energy budget on a per-person basis required to make those places habitable to begin with.

Re: Observation-based early-warning signals for a collapse of the Gulf Stream

#229

Post by jakear »

deanCommie wrote: post #10

Before someone makes the inevitable joke, no this will not help offset climate change temperature gains and neutralize the risk of heat-waves. The summer temperatures will continue to get hotter. It's the winter temperatures that will get colder. Both require energy use to keep housing liveable. Which, unless we dramatically transition our energy generation to renewables, will just continue exacerbating the climate p…

Or, redesign houses to not need nearly as much energy for heating and cooling, preferring natural heating via the sun and cooling via breeze. https://www.codylundin.com/codys_house.html

Re: Observation-based early-warning signals for a collapse of the Gulf Stream

#230

Post by heavyset_go »

abeppu wrote: post #153
jacquesm wrote: post #32

After seeing the global chaotic response to COVID I'm convinced that climate change will not receive a meaningful response until it is way too late. It apparently needs to hit the majority of the planet right in the gut (and then preferably the wealthy part) for people to get off their collective asses and do something about it. I'm just about ready to pack it in and hope the next generation is smarter than this one…

The crazy thing is it _is_ hitting the wealthy parts, but that still hasn't galvanized sufficient response. A very partial list of headline impacts in the first world off the top of my head: - US West Coast droughts and fires - Pacific Northwest heat dome - Texas cold snap - Epic floods in Germany - Australian wild fires - European heat waves - Even when rich SF techies were under a terrifying orange sky, our behavio…

> The crazy thing is it _is_ hitting the wealthy parts

Until wealth can't buy its way out of the consequences of climate change, this hasn't really happened.

Who cares about what's going on in SF when you can hop on your plane and fly to one of your properties elsewhere?

I lived somewhere where people would build multimillion dollar homes on the beach, and every few years hurricanes would wash them away. It's happening at an increasing frequency now. It's no big deal, though, because wealthy people can afford to insure and rebuild every time it happens. It's just one of the costs of having a beach house in a desirable area.

Similarly, wildfires are just one of the costs of having houses in the Bay Area.

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