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Bitcoin’s Overnight Collapse Probability Is About 50%

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Re: Bitcoin’s Overnight Collapse Probability Is About 50%

#221

Post by [deleted] »

Closi wrote: post #197
thebean11 wrote: post #123

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This doesn't sound right to me. It seems like your analysis assumes that BTC has already become a store of value, and people are putting excess income into it, like gold. In that future, why wouldn't there be buyers? There aren't new people earning money and investing excess income? People need to turn gold into fiat in order to spend it. Those are people with excess wealth and not enough income. There will always be…

More specifically, I'm assuming that they are a speculative instrument where people are expecting positive growth (i.e. that bitcoins become more valuable over time). The supply of new people earning money who will want to invest income into Bitcoin has to be finite. Growth can't continue forever because you always need to find someone new who is willing to pay more than you did for a bitcoin/satoshi to keep the pric…

[deleted]

Re: Bitcoin’s Overnight Collapse Probability Is About 50%

#222

Post by justapassenger »

viklove wrote: post #219
justapassenger wrote: post #112

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Dollar is powered by one of the biggest economical, political and military power in the world.

The USD also had some difficult beginnings, and through luck and force of will has been established as the de-facto world currency. Saying that no-one will ever challenge the king is foolish, short-sighted, and naive.

No one reasonable says that USD cannot be challenged. Chinese yuan is on the way there and we’ll see that fight pretty soon.

Bitcoin is not even not in the same league - it’s playing different sport.

Re: Bitcoin’s Overnight Collapse Probability Is About 50%

#223

Post by throwaway3699 »

desmap wrote: post #215
throwaway3699 wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Any article posted here could cause market movements. We discuss public companies all the time.

Apples to oranges. Manipulating stock prices of public companies is much harder/more complex than of crypto currencies.

Right but I do think the principle is the same. We're commenting on an asset. If the market moves due to that conversation then so be it. The GameStop fiasco proves that it's really not hard to manipulate public trading as one might initially think.

Re: Bitcoin’s Overnight Collapse Probability Is About 50%

#224

Post by anm89 »

ffggvv wrote: post #31
anm89 wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What happened to Amazon in the two cases where it has drawn down 90% from a high?

yes this analogy works because amazon ships billions in packages with almost a trillion in revenue and btc can be replicated by a sql database

Also, totally unclear about what this has to do with them both having 90% drawdowns.

Re: Bitcoin’s Overnight Collapse Probability Is About 50%

#225

Post by vntok »

rognjen wrote: post #204
panarky wrote: post #173

Earlier quoted context omitted.

1) This is a clickbait headline. TFA doesn't say there's a 50% chance of a collapse tonight. It says there's a 50% chance of collapse at some point in the next year. 2) TFA also says the reason Bitcoin futures are contango (6 month contract costs more than 3 month contract) on the Chicago Merc is because of counterparty risk with Bitcoin exchanges. But it also says there's zero counterparty risk with the Chicago Merc…

> We should immediately discount stories about cryptoassets from any site that can't manage to set up a TLS cert. Very interesting conclusion. Let me see if I can follow along: Adding an SSL cert = SSL SSL = encryption EnCRYPTion = CRYPTocurrency Cryptocurrency = Bitcoin implementation Bitcoin implementation = Bitcoin price Yes, I see now how they're equivalent. The article definitely is hand-wavy and there are other…

Adding an SSL cert = minimal IT skills required

Understanding cryptoassets = Above minimal IT skills + more skills + more knowledge required

Not knowing how to add an SSL cert certainly does not bode well for one's expertise on crypto. Knowing how to do so but not caring is even worse.

Re: Bitcoin’s Overnight Collapse Probability Is About 50%

#226

Post by dang »

desmap wrote: post #22

@dang, you should think about adding a disclaimer to every crypto-related submission, just regex the title with the typical key words to catch them, with something like: Be aware that crypto-related submissions like this one might be intended to trigger or influence a wanted market behavior by OP.

I don't think HN readers need us to tell them that.
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