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Q2 2020 Update

ir.tesla.com

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Re: Q2 2020 Update

#221

Post by toomuchtodo »

zacksinclair wrote: post #138
toomuchtodo wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My Tesla stock with a $17/share cost basis says otherwise. Take the the other side of the bet and short it if you doubt the long term value. The world isn’t going to suddenly stop supporting climate change mitigation through policy. It’s only going to ramp up, leaving legacy Orgs in the dust.

Your good investment from years ago does not make Tesla a good investment at today's price.

Something being potentially overpriced today does not mean it’s not a good investment. It definitely is or was for those who identified the value arb prior to today and executed based on that.

Is Tesla overpriced today? We can only speculate based on potential and execution ability.

Re: Q2 2020 Update

#222

Post by neximo64 »

wenc wrote: post #183
RandallBrown wrote: post #178

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Electric vehicle tax credits?

Well, EV tax credits are subsidies for a "category" -- electric vehicles -- not specific companies. Every EV customer gets them, and their intention is incentivize the transition to electric transportation, so they're working as they should.

So its not taxpayer funded?

Re: Q2 2020 Update

#223

Post by swrj »

dhritzkiv wrote: post #157
bobsoap wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Seconded. A hint that it links to a PDF would also be welcomed by everyone on a phone.

Out of curiosity, why is viewing a PDF unwelcome on a mobile device?

Some browsers and apps auto download the pdf.

Re: Q2 2020 Update

#224

Post by bryanlarsen »

shuckles wrote: post #212
bryanlarsen wrote: post #206

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> All that said, Tesla also doesn’t build and sell cars profitably. Selling credits is the source of their profits. GAAP gross margin is 21%. They're making excellent profits on their cars.

There are a lot of accounting choices that go into gross margin, and a forensic accountant could dedicate a year to understand the various shell games played by car companies between financing, depreciation on equipment, and warranty. So as a simple matter, it helps to double check the reported gross margin against EBIDTA. And with that measure, my comment stands: Tesla’s reported profits depend on continuing to sell…

Sure, if you assume fraud then anything goes. But barring that, GAAP is a well tested metric. It's been often gamed and then patched to plug the holes.

Re: Q2 2020 Update

#225

Post by marvin »

rconti wrote: post #210
grecy wrote: post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> When your spending 100k on a car you expect Mercedes type of luxury This is the old way of thinking, and it illistrates perfectly why the other auto manufacturers have been caught flat footed re EVs. For many decades what you said held true - more money on a car meant a higher quality interior. Now things have changed dramatically, because what we thought of as a "car" has changed so much. You can now spend 100k to…

The Model 3 and Y make that (mostly) moot (size aside). We've got a Model 3, I've had S loaners and my dad's got an S, and I've driven the S as far back as maybe 2013? There are things I like about both. It's not at all clear to me that if you made me choose a free car to receive, that I'd choose the S over the 3. If you're making me spend my own dollars, 3 all day. I just don't like the S twice as much.

Musk said a few conference calls ago that Tesla doesn't really have a long-term ambition to make a significant fraction of their profits from S/X. I believe he said "keeping them around for sentimental reasons", which is probably overstating it a bit.

But they're clearly not worried about cannibalizing their own product line.

Re: Q2 2020 Update

#226

Post by SaltyLemonZest »

justapassenger wrote: post #202
qeternity wrote: post #116

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For bulls, TSLA isn’t a car company. It’s the climate change company. They are the best bet right now to upend the entire power mix. I’m not saying I agree with this. Even if achieved, the amount of future success being priced in today is extraordinary. Combine that with a stock that’s become “cool” to own with retail, and the huge short interest...and well it starts to make sense. TSLA price action at the moment is…

> It’s the climate change company One (extreme) way of looking at it, is that it's a company that's enabling climate change, at a tiny scale (as they aren't really that big). Regulatory credits, that are driving their profitability, is selling other car manufactures ability to produce gas-guzzling vehicles.

There are reasons to believe they might soon be that big. I'm not saying it's close to a sure bet, but in the Netherlands and Norway they're already the top selling brand - I think any reasonable analysis has to admit the possibility that they might soon replicate that success in larger countries.

Re: Q2 2020 Update

#227

Post by toomuchtodo »

toomuchtodo wrote: post #105
itsoktocry wrote: post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> My Tesla stock with a $17/share cost basis says otherwise. Tesla's IPO price was $17. So you got in right on the lowest price the stock has ever been and never bought another share since? Amazing.

Mostly correct. I performed swing trading along the way up, but still hold all of the initial IPO investment (yolo’d my Roth IRA). Was sold after my first Roadster test drive.

s/Was sold/Was sold on the company and investment/, after realizing my comment might be ambiguous.

Re: Q2 2020 Update

#229

Post by bob33212 »

mamon wrote: post #88
guardiangod wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One would expect a widget-manufacturer that is supply-constrained to have flat revenue until new factories are opened, unless you are talking about raising prices to increase profitability. It doesn't seem Tesla is that concerned with short-term profitability.

If Tesla cars were really in high demand, and supply was the problem then I would expect them to raise prices, thus increasing revenue. They haven't done that, which means Tesla's are probably not as sexy cars as they try to paint them.

For traditional car makers that would be true. There are times where a civic is more expensive than an accord for example. But Tesla is not trying to maximize revenue in the short term. They are trying to convert the world to sustainable transportation.

Re: Q2 2020 Update

#230

Post by shuckles »

bryanlarsen wrote: post #224
shuckles wrote: post #212

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are a lot of accounting choices that go into gross margin, and a forensic accountant could dedicate a year to understand the various shell games played by car companies between financing, depreciation on equipment, and warranty. So as a simple matter, it helps to double check the reported gross margin against EBIDTA. And with that measure, my comment stands: Tesla’s reported profits depend on continuing to sell…

Sure, if you assume fraud then anything goes. But barring that, GAAP is a well tested metric. It's been often gamed and then patched to plug the holes.

I never assumed fraud. My comment is true of car companies generally.
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