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How South Korea Reined In The Outbreak Without Shutting Everything Down

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Re: How South Korea Reined In The Outbreak Without Shutting Everything Down

#221

Post by sp332 »

rsync wrote: post #197
sp332 wrote: post #177

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Every cell phone user has to be tracked so the cell network knows how to route their calls. Result: https://twitter.com/TectonixGEO/status/1242628347034767361 (edited for better link)

Where did this researcher get the anonymized mobile phone location data points from ? Also, I think it's important to clarify that: "Every cell phone user has to be tracked so the cell network knows how to route their calls ..." ... would be more accurate if we said: "Every cell phone has to be tracked ..." Many pieces of the cellular network have no idea who the handset (or other device) is assigned to, or who is us…

Good question. I updated the link to a more original source, which says the data is from X-Mode Social https://xmode.io/

Re: How South Korea Reined In The Outbreak Without Shutting Everything Down

#222

Post by kijin »

casperc wrote: post #176
kijin wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To add a bit more data to your assertion, most of the 9,000 cases in South Korea can be traced to a handful of gatherings where people didn't wear masks. First there was the cult in Daegu, where believers are not allowed to cover their faces because apparently their god can't see through fabric. Mass infections also occurred in churches where people took off their masks to eat or sing together, or tried to "sanitize"…

Any chance you have some sources on this? There a lot of talking around the subject of masks, but I don't have any articles or similar to show people when discussing this.

The bit about masks is my own conclusion based on a lot of different local sources.

The closest thing to a comprehensive source about the distribution of infections in South Korea that I can find is [1], which still contains too much Korean-in-a-canvas that can't be automatically translated:

54.6% of cases are related to the Shincheonji cult

0.5+0.7+0.5% various other churches and religious groups

1.3% Daenam Hospital (almost all cases occurred in the psychiatric ward, as well as the attached funeral home where the Shincheonji cult leader held his brother's funeral)

1.2% related to gyms

1.2% related to the call center in Guro-gu

3.6% nursing homes

6.3% related to other mass infections (this includes other call centers, nursing homes, etc.)

11.3% contact with people infected from one of the other sources

3.3+0.6% infected overseas

14.9% other/unknown

Of course this doesn't say anything about masks. But you can clearly see that unlike in many other countries, ~70% of cases in Korea are concentrated in a handful of clearly delineated groups, with relatively little spillover into the general public. It takes a bit of familiarity with the religious landscape of Korea and the workplace culture to recognize that most of these groups are where people don't wear a mask. (As for nursing homes, the elderly often have difficulty breathing through a mask, not to mention they're together 24/7.)

Some people still got infected while wearing a mask, though, so it's not bulletproof. But it seems that the effect becomes visible as a kind of herd immunity when aggregated over a large population.

As for the government not publishing locations visited with a mask on, here's an example from my city's official Instagram account [2]. It says that the infected person's movements on some days are redacted because she wore a mask on those days (among other precautions) and therefore didn't make any epidemiologically significant contact with other people. You can compare this with other press releases by the same account that contain a lot more location data for other people.

[1] https://coronaboard.kr/en/#source-card-slide

[2] https://www.instagram.com/p/B-Iy3G7lTQs/

Re: How South Korea Reined In The Outbreak Without Shutting Everything Down

#223

Post by [deleted] »

theseadroid wrote: post #184
billfruit wrote: post #157

Last few days though, more numbers are being reported of new infections in both China and South Korea. Yesterday more than 100+ in SK I think.

For China many Chinese emigrants are returning home with the virus with them. as they don't trust their local healthcare systems. One example: https://www.fiercepharma.com/pharma/biogen-parts-way-employe...

[deleted]

Re: How South Korea Reined In The Outbreak Without Shutting Everything Down

#224

Post by robocat »

mxcrossb wrote: post #154
adventured wrote: post #6

So have Thailand, the Philippines and Indonesia (440 million people). They've all had fewer cases than Luxembourg so far. I've yet to see a good explanation for it, other than maybe the premise about seasonal temps and humidity (northern vs southern hemisphere). There's no evidence they're massively lying about their numbers (which would show up in the form of a demolished hospital system and thousands dead of pneumo…

What if there are multiple strands of the virus, and Europe is being dominated by the more potent one? We might not even be surprised that the more potent version ended up on the other side of the planet.

https://nextstrain.org/ncov shows there is a massive number of genetic variants. I have yet to see anyone successfully show that the variants have different behaviours, as that is hard to do. However any strains that are more contagious should dominate over other strains.

Due to international travel, and especially citizens returning home, the different strains are coexisting within the same country.

They have even used strains and genetic trees to trace individuals that transmitted the virus.

Re: How South Korea Reined In The Outbreak Without Shutting Everything Down

#225

Post by DanBC »

leguminous wrote: post #147
mcsb4 wrote: post #21

Again another article that doesn't even mention the use of masks and hand sanitizer. The cost of the epidemic now goes into the trillions, self-made cotton masks are cheap compared to the economic damage. They can be disinfected in boiling water and if everybody uses them they will help to stop the spreading of the virus. In all the countries mentioned in the article people wear masks when in public, often just again…

The doctors in my fiancée's department (ophthalmology and optometry at a major state university) have been officially prohibited from wearing masks, even if they provided a mask themselves. They are right in front of all of their patients' faces.

I'm not defending that, but here's recommendations for preserving PPE: http://www.ihi.org/communities/blogs/covid-pandemic-conservi...

> Other potential considerations being explored include:

> Limiting use of N95 masks to only procedures where respiratory secretions can be aerosolized, including intubation for PUI or COVID+ individuals. Use loop surgical masks for all other encounters. Read the latest guidelines on keeping the coronavirus from infecting health care workers.

> Limiting use of loop masks to only encounters with patients on droplet precautions such as PUI or COVID+ or other flu like illness investigations.

It sounds like their department has implemented this second recommendation. I feel like that's sub-optimal.

Re: How South Korea Reined In The Outbreak Without Shutting Everything Down

#226

Post by ceejayoz »

DanBC wrote: post #215
bitexploder wrote: post #182

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A lot of masks sold retail can’t be used in hospital settings in America. Many hospitals have strict rules about procurement and origination of things like N95 masks. Meanwhile, I can order comparable masks from China and have them in less than a week in quantity. It’s very much cultural as well as government response (why we are sucking so much at controlling this).

> I can order comparable masks from China Why would you buy safety critical equipment from China? There are good reasons those hospitals have such strict requirements. http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2020-03/12/c_138870714.htm > A joint law enforcement operation by government agencies including the State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR) was launched in early February, with over 80 million defective face m…

> Why would you buy safety critical equipment from China?

Hospitals have done this for decades.

Re: How South Korea Reined In The Outbreak Without Shutting Everything Down

#227

Post by ceejayoz »

ardy42 wrote: post #179
largespoon wrote: post #130

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Try aliexepress

> Try aliexepress I'd be surprised if that worked at all. At least one Chinese ecommerce website is preventing foreign IPs from even viewing item listings for masks. When you try to view the item from the search results, it gives you an error saying something like export is prohibited. Also China has pretty much shut down air travel to the country to prevent "imported cases," so air freight capacity from is greatly r…

> About half the world’s airfreight typically moves in the bellies of passenger aircraft, while the rest travels aboard air freighters.

Turns out we can just keep those passenger aircraft flying.

https://www.wired.com/story/airlines-use-empty-passenger-jet...

> But Monday afternoon, Delta said it’s putting an unspecified number of passenger jets back in the air, flying out of 13 American airports and to 70 destinations overseas. Delta’s not selling any tickets for those planes, however. Rather, they’ll be operated by Delta’s cargo arm, running charter flights to cater to anyone who needs to move a package or pallet.

Re: How South Korea Reined In The Outbreak Without Shutting Everything Down

#228

Post by Kiro »

bitexploder wrote: post #185
ardy42 wrote: post #179

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Try aliexepress I'd be surprised if that worked at all. At least one Chinese ecommerce website is preventing foreign IPs from even viewing item listings for masks. When you try to view the item from the search results, it gives you an error saying something like export is prohibited. Also China has pretty much shut down air travel to the country to prevent "imported cases," so air freight capacity from is greatly r…

I ordered a number of masks yesterday from Aliexpress. It works. Shipping is slower than usual, but not crazy.

Can you really say it works until you've actually received them? What masks did you order by the way?

Re: How South Korea Reined In The Outbreak Without Shutting Everything Down

#229

Post by downerending »

Yizahi wrote: post #78
mcsb4 wrote: post #21

Again another article that doesn't even mention the use of masks and hand sanitizer. The cost of the epidemic now goes into the trillions, self-made cotton masks are cheap compared to the economic damage. They can be disinfected in boiling water and if everybody uses them they will help to stop the spreading of the virus. In all the countries mentioned in the article people wear masks when in public, often just again…

I use self made cotton mask to go for groceries. It's garbage - it doesn't fit tightly around the face and most of the air I inhale or exhale goes through the sides unobstructed. Proper masks would be nice but unavailable everywhere and of course washing hands is a must.

One perhaps underappreciated benefit of even a "garbage" mask is that it's a great reminder not to touch your face. That might turn out to be important.

Re: How South Korea Reined In The Outbreak Without Shutting Everything Down

#230

Post by downerending »

robocat wrote: post #7

Another effing article that completely ignores Taiwan... I’m no taiwanophile, but why is it that a first-world democracy with a successful strategy against Covid is being completely ignored by media? https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2762689 Taiwan has huge flows of Chinese people, yet no outbreak. Maybe it’s a good thing they are not recognised by the WHO?

I suspect part of it is the "controversial" state of Taiwan vs mainland China. (i.e., do they count as separate countries, etc)

Some graphics and stats make this distinction more obvious--others sort of roll it all together.

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