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The Long-Term Jobs Killer Is Not China, It’s Automation

nytimes.com

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Re: The Long-Term Jobs Killer Is Not China, It’s Automation

#221

Post by shostack »

dvtv75 wrote: post #116
alkonaut wrote: post #98

I'm not sure what everyone is so afraid of? There will be tensions and a political problem about redistribution if "simple" jobs dry up, sure, but isn't automation a good thing regardless? It means we make more stuff withuot putting in more effort. Automation and industrialization over the last 150 years already meant we went from 120h weeks on farms to 40h weeks in offices and factories, while living standards incre…

Four years ago, I was working full time. That job was automated away, but I found another part-time job that paid minimum wage for fewer hours, so my income dropped dramatically. That job was automated away, and I was very lucky to find a job (that ended up being around double full-time hours, but only paid for half of them, so legally I was paid about half of minimum wage), which went away. Now, I'm working one thir…

Sorry to hear about your job troubles. Can you share what you do that has been automated away? Were all these jobs in the same industry? If so, what are your plans to shift to jobs that are less prone to automation (if you don't mind my asking)?

Re: The Long-Term Jobs Killer Is Not China, It’s Automation

#223

Post by Pica_soO »

The final stage are fully automated factory's on ships, going to where the resources are the cheapest. Receiving machinery from other ships, selling Kalashnikov and cellphones, to a mankind at war over boredom.

Good thing is though, machines dont need CEOs - so the last rat on the ship, might have the flagpoles cotton as towel.

That is unless they can invent so many boolshit jobs, that the hamster wheel keeps on churning.

Re: The Long-Term Jobs Killer Is Not China, It’s Automation

#224

Post by smallnamespace »

klodolph wrote: post #104
smallnamespace wrote: post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Even if everyone has their own replicator, the competition shifts to who controls raw materials, and who controls energy. Fresh water, for example, is a scarce (and becoming scarcer) resource, and it's impossible to farm or live without it.

Yes, although I'm not convinced that fresh water is going to be such a scarce resource in the future. There are a few "outs" on the horizon—besides changing our diet, the possibilities for desalinization, or things like lab-grown meats, may change our relationship with water. Just as long as population growth slows enough… Agree with the comment about ownership. As technology has improved, more and more power has bee…

Fresh water is not a problem given unlimited energy since desalination works well.

The problem is that energy is expensive, and fresh water shortages will be worst in countries that are poor and can't afford these plants.

Re: The Long-Term Jobs Killer Is Not China, It’s Automation

#225

Post by flowersoldier »

smallnamespace wrote: post #72
visarga wrote: post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Economies of scale have been the bread and butter of progress in the last 100 years, but we're entering the age of customization now. Adaptive technologies can work on small scale as well as on large scale. And large scale can still be achieved by coops that provide services for many people at once. People do have capital and resources, it's just spread and divided. What we need is to organize. I give self-replicatin…

Even if everyone has their own replicator, the competition shifts to who controls raw materials, and who controls energy. Fresh water, for example, is a scarce (and becoming scarcer) resource, and it's impossible to farm or live without it.

Whisky is for Drinking. Water is for Fighting. -Mark Twain

Re: The Long-Term Jobs Killer Is Not China, It’s Automation

#227

Post by Jach »

croon wrote: post #192
randcraw wrote: post #181

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Cures for disease. Entertainment. Friendship.

Cures for diseases I expect AI to do much better than us very soon. Entertainment will take longer, but I see no reason why it wouldn't be possible to algorithmically create. The lesser ones like Big Bang Theory is basically just a nerd reskin of every other sitcom Chuck Lorre has done. That could probably be churned out by a computer by the end of 2020. The more complicated entertainment will take longer to crack th…

Friendship may be tough to define, but I think it won't present a problem. Even a simple attempt like this points the way: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nkcKaNqfykg

Re: The Long-Term Jobs Killer Is Not China, It’s Automation

#228

Post by gitah »

cm2187 wrote: post #92
tmnvix wrote: post #2

One upside to automation is that comparative advantage with regard to labour costs becomes much less important. This means that manufacturers can more easily afford to keep production in high wage economies. There are other considerations of course, such as proximity to resources, transport hubs, and markets. Ultimately though, this doesn't change the fact that automation is mostly beneficial to capital owners and no…

> Ultimately though, this doesn't change the fact that automation is mostly beneficial to capital owners I think that inequality will increase but not because of owning capital. Rather because this automation will shift demand away from unskilled workers and into software developers, marketing experts, etc. And I do not think that the supply of skilled worker can adapt fast enough, if any. The good news (for the US)…

It would probably require 15-20 years if automation does reach the scale to have macro-level effects on employment. By that time China's economy will be 2x-3x bigger than it is now with GDP per capita around 30k USD. China would essentially be a developed country at that point.

It's easy to assume and take for granted that the US will create all the automation technology. However, I think it's more probable that China will move up the value chain and be the ones to own and develop these technologies, especially in manufacturing as China already has a super strong manufacturing ecosystem and talent (think Silicon Valley and Software).

If China owns the technology, the wealth would be in China so less will be available to spread around for basic income in developed countries like the US.

Re: The Long-Term Jobs Killer Is Not China, It’s Automation

#229

Post by ab5tract »

GFK_of_xmaspast wrote: post #178
ab5tract wrote: post #99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Interesting that your example of warlordism in a "potlach-like" culture is from a feudal society. The rest you've said is a gross misrepresentation of the giveaway culture shared amongst many more tribes than just the Northwest ones. And of course, white academia will just refuse and say "our written documentation written by genocidal outsiders is way more accurate than what the cultures themselves say about themselv…

Why stop keeping track at 1900?

Because since 1900 the genocide shifted from bodies to minds. IE, the millions of deaths occurred prior.

Re: The Long-Term Jobs Killer Is Not China, It’s Automation

#230

Post by ab5tract »

coldtea wrote: post #105
ab5tract wrote: post #99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Interesting that your example of warlordism in a "potlach-like" culture is from a feudal society. The rest you've said is a gross misrepresentation of the giveaway culture shared amongst many more tribes than just the Northwest ones. And of course, white academia will just refuse and say "our written documentation written by genocidal outsiders is way more accurate than what the cultures themselves say about themselv…

It obviously means no negative effects for the colonizers. Which, come to think of it, it's true. Except some guilt maybe.

What an excellent disregard of externalities.
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