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Infectious disease doesn't care why you're unvaccinated

sciencebasedmedicine.org

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Re: Infectious disease doesn't care why you're unvaccinated

#211
post #170

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In a conversation like this, it's important to discount hypothetical risks. Vaccination has been around for a long time. Hypothetically, there could be one with a 40% risk of long-term disability. But there isn't. Show me an example of disability caused by vaccination (they exist), complete with a percentage estimate of how many people will suffer. Then we can talk about the associated costs.

I think you are looking at this from a statistical point of view, where you balance the risk for the group and what might happen to one person. I understand this point. What I am saying is that from an individual point of view, people won't react the same if you tell them: A - "Your kid has a 1 in 800 million have it bad, it should be OK but if it's not, tough luck, you deal with it" B - "Your kid has a really small…

'''B - "Your kid has a really small chance to suffer from it, but it's for the group. If it goes bad the group will do everything to support you and your kid'''

To be fair, that's why the National Childhood Vaccine Injury Act was passed, though there are limitations:

> to be eligible to file a claim, the effects of the person’s injury must have: 1) lasted for more than 6 months after the vaccine was given; or 2) resulted in a hospital stay and surgery; or 3) resulted in death.

For examples, if you get the measles vaccine and within 4 hours go into anaphylactic shock, then it's presumed to be caused by the vaccine. If in the month after getting the chicken pox vaccine you start suffering from chronic arthritis, then again it's presumed that the vaccine caused the condition.

In those cases you can be paid (quoting from http://www.hrsa.gov/vaccinecompensation/84521booklet.pdf ):

• a reasonable amount for past and future nonreimbursable medical, custodial care, and rehabilitation costs, and related expenses (There is no limit on the amount a person with an injury may be paid for these types of expenses. Payments are based on your vaccine injury needs.);

• up to $250,000 for actual and projected pain and suffering;

• lost earnings; and/or

• reasonable lawyers’ fees and other legal costs or legal costs, not fees, of petitioners representing themselves, if your claim was filed on a reasonable basis and in good faith.

Re: Infectious disease doesn't care why you're unvaccinated

#212
post #205

Earlier quoted context omitted.

From another parent of a child with autism, I have two things to say: 1) it's clear from the science that vaccines do not cause autism. Autism becomes noticeable about the same age as vaccination, but its causes are earlier. 2) refusing to vaccinate simply means that you put your autistic child and mine at risk of other diseases. Get educated and stop doing the wrong thing.

I didn't say vaccines cause autism, but thanks for regurgitating the usual non-conversation at me. If you would like to discuss the idea that vaccines can pull the trigger on particular children who are born with a loaded gun, then maybe we can have a constructive conversation.

I guess you didn't actually say "vaccines cause autism". You merely spoke about the stories you hear about vaccines in the autism community, and suggested that everyone else would change their mind if only they had the same experience -- without any clarification as to what you actually meant that is different from the usual "vaccines cause autism" tripe.

Do not blame others for misunderstanding when you communicate badly (see also http://xkcd.com/169/ ). If you want to have a "constructive conversation", start by communicating better. Explain what you mean, instead of getting angry at people for not guessing what you mean.

Re: Infectious disease doesn't care why you're unvaccinated

#213
post #179

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why would God protect from the measles but not the autism? (And I say this as a Christian who believes in healing) Yet while 'vaccine denialism' is often associated with the Religious Right, it's certainly not a prerequisite, because you can certainly find the same sentiments among the all-natural anti-GMO fringe Left, and before we had stories about Texas mega churches we had stories about affluent Californians[1] […

And I say this as a Christian who believes in healing Forgive me if I come across as rude. I'd love to hear your answer to, "Why won't God heal amputees?" I'm not trying to score points or anything. I'm genuinely curious about your answer. Despite our different beliefs, I'm glad we share so much common ground on the issue of vaccination.

That's a legitimate question, and I don't pretend to have an answer. I believe God has healed in numerous cases that defy explanation by placebo, misdiagnosis, or other means, but that tells me little about why he has not done so in others. I could come up with theological theories, but none, at least presently, that I would expect others to find satisfactory. It is also, I admit, not a question I have specifically spent much time considering or investigating, - - though I acknowledge its difficult implication.

Re: Infectious disease doesn't care why you're unvaccinated

#214
post #174

Spend some time in the autism community, as a parent of a child with autism, and meet other parents of children with autism, and you might have a different opinion about whether children can be vaccine injured after you hear the same stories over and over again.

Man, I wish I could down-vote this idiotic comment. Changes in the brains of infants who later developed Autism have been observed before those infants ever received their vaccinations.

> "Changes in the brains of infants who later developed Autism have been observed before those infants ever received their vaccinations."

I'd love a citation, if you have one.

(Disclaimer: I am pro-vaccination, and the father of an autistic child. I'm interested in the "changes in the brain" thing, not the "link with vaccines" thing.)

Re: Infectious disease doesn't care why you're unvaccinated

#215
post #190

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Shouldn't there be a _lot_ of very good data about this in the general case, not just for widely recognized anomalous events? I suspect adverse reactions are under-reported. A recent experience does nothing to dissuade me from that notion. (I know, confirmation bias). But the sheer number of vaccinations that take place would provide some very good data. Of course, that data would also probably show at least some occ…

Umm, what makes you think there isn't a lot of very good data? Start with http://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/vac-gen/side-effects.htm#dtap . I linked to DTaP but there are many others on that page. To report a problem, go to http://vaers.hhs.gov/index , which is the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System. Did you get any paperwork about the immunization? There should have been a flyer or handout like http://www.cdc.gov/vacc…

>Umm, what makes you think there isn't a lot of very good data?

Because there isn't. Good data on vaccine outcomes would mean that blood samples would be taken and used to assess the effectiveness of vaccines. Good data would require a follow-up tests post vaccination. Good data means I'd get a report in the mail, and maybe every once in a while the report might say to come and get another X because the test indicates that the last X vaccination was ineffective. Thanks, I've been all over the FDA's and the CDC's websites.

>To report a problem, go to http://vaers.hhs.gov/index , which is the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System.

Yes, VAERS is voluntary reporting system that is sporadically used by practitioners, and may also be filled with reports from randoms, some of which may be junk. It has some value, it is better than nothing; but, we certainly aren't going to draw many conclusions from it. I was very dissatisfied with baby's first pediatrician for failing to mention VAERS when I asked, as anyone should be.

>Did you get any paperwork about the immunization?

Of course, parents are showered with CDC pamphlets; and showered with them again every time you tick a box on forms that say your child isn't up to date on ALL vaccinations.

>There should be no infectious material that could cause a bad cough a week later.

I know there shouldn't! I described an experience as I remembered it. I did not draw a conclusion, I cannot. I do not have my own immunology lab. But, neither can I dismiss the possibility that the cough was related to the vaccination (maybe baby was exposed in the waiting room). Nobody else should draw a conclusion from a secondhand anecdote, either. Baby could have been exposed several other ways, either to Pertussis or something else.

>I don't know what to say to you, other than that I, some anonymous person on the internet, agrees with your doctor that "it probably wasn't Pertussis."

Nor do I know what to say to you other than, you're probably right. You'll probably always be right because both Pertussis infection, and vaccine adverse reactions are fortunately rare.

I didn't ask the ped to make a VAERS report over the visit. I asked what would happen in the event of a serious problem, following a vaccination. If you're my child's pediatrician, and your response to my question indicates a lack of knowledge, or possible willingness to mislead me for your own convenience; then you probably aren't going to be my child's pediatrician much longer.

> The severe cases seem to happen in 1:1 million cases or rarer for the vaccinations I looked at. Even across all of the vaccinations, it's unlikely that your doctor's office would have had that happen to one of their patients.

Unless death is the only thing you qualify as serious, you are mistaken. Even with the shabby state of data collection, and the even shabbier state of medical studies, severe adverse reactions are evidently more common than 1:1e6. Look at pretty much any vaccine label for evidence to support that. I haven't access to our former ped's books, but I would expect them to have given tens maybe hundreds of thousands of vaccinations per decade as a conservative estimate. Consider the number of vaccines recommended by the CDC schedule http://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/parents/downloads/parent-ver-sch...

>What should the doctor have done to improve your sense of confidence? Run a test for pertussis even though your child didn't have the symptoms for the disease?

The child did have the symptoms of the disease[1][2].

Additionally, as I stated, about that time, there was a "Massive Pertussis (fear mongering) Outbreak" in the news, with periodic reporting and shaming of vaccine refuseniks. Yes, absolutely, the ped. should have run a test. But the main thing that any ped. can do to inspire confidence is not to be dismissive of parents' concerns or questions. If instead of waving more CDC pamphlets at us, she had mentioned VAERS, or anything resembling even a vague and non-specific something like VAERS she would probably still be our ped.

Is it not enough that I vaccinate my kids for infectious diseases, despite my suspicions that all may not be right in the world of vaccines[3], but you expect me to do so with unreserved faith in the manufacturers of vaccines, and the government?

[1] http://www.cdc.gov/pertussis/about/signs-symptoms.html

[2] Pertussis symptoms are quite like the symptoms of Influenza, and many other childhood ailments.

[3] I don't question the science of immunology or epidemiology. I question the claim that in practice, vaccines are manufactured, distributed, and administered with a near miraculous failure rate.

Re: Infectious disease doesn't care why you're unvaccinated

#216
post #198

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Interested to hear your justification for declining / delaying vaccine I'm interested to hear why a five minute old infant is at risk of contracting Hep-B. Our kids will get Hep-B before they start school. Even if one of our kids did contract Hep-B, it is pretty unlikely that they will be able to give it to your children. Rota-virus vaccine was suspended by the FDA temporarily,[1] We opted to decline this one even a…

"I'm interested to hear why a five minute old infant is at risk of contracting Hep-B. " Because a baby whose mother is infected with Hep-B can be infected at birth, it's estimated that only 50% of the pregnant women who have Hep-B are identified, and babies can get Hep-B from other family members and caregivers. See http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/PDF/rr/rr5416.pdf for the full details, but here are two relevant passages: >…

>Because a baby whose mother is infected with Hep-B

Well, we didn't elect to deliver in the back room of a whorehouse, or under a tree on the prairie. We went to one of the best hospitals in the country, where blood tests are done in advance of delivery, where these things are discussed and planned as part of the pre-natal pregnancy care.

Wife and I are both vaccinated, and apparently Hep-B negative. I have to make sure my kids aren't raped by Hep-B positive child-rapists, which is sadly too common.

> There's no infectious material at all, making it a very safe vaccine.

You keep missing something from my posts. I don't doubt the science behind vaccines. You don't need to convince me that vaccines are practically a modern miracle. I lack confidence in manufacturers, and in fairness of the NVIC.

Re: Infectious disease doesn't care why you're unvaccinated

#217
post #205

Earlier quoted context omitted.

From another parent of a child with autism, I have two things to say: 1) it's clear from the science that vaccines do not cause autism. Autism becomes noticeable about the same age as vaccination, but its causes are earlier. 2) refusing to vaccinate simply means that you put your autistic child and mine at risk of other diseases. Get educated and stop doing the wrong thing.

I didn't say vaccines cause autism, but thanks for regurgitating the usual non-conversation at me. If you would like to discuss the idea that vaccines can pull the trigger on particular children who are born with a loaded gun, then maybe we can have a constructive conversation.

> I didn't say vaccines cause autism

Then you're incapable of having an adult conversation.

> If you would like to discuss the idea that vaccines can pull the trigger twaddle twaddle whine

Provide evidence that they can and we'll think about it. Note that evidence comes in the form of peer-reviewed journals, not mommy-blogs written by people who still think Wakefield qualifies as a human being.

Re: Infectious disease doesn't care why you're unvaccinated

#218

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I have also never seen a case of autism. Not sure where you live. There are two kids with autism on my block. Both young boys. Autism is a common disease where I live in the midwest. We have 3 large organizations that only work with Autistic kids. My wife and I have 3 kids and vaccinate them selectively on our own schedule. We vaccinate our kids for the same things that we received as children, nothing more and not…

I meant that there weren't kids in my surrounding (consisting of a couple of thousand kids) with the kind of mental problems(symptoms) while growing up and having very strict immunization schedule. Of course in the 80s in Eastern Europe some things were just considered being a kid that I suppose will give you today some diagnosis. Was chicken pox or mumps the one that boils your testicles if you get is as an adult?

Mumps.

Re: Infectious disease doesn't care why you're unvaccinated

#219
post #179

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And I say this as a Christian who believes in healing Forgive me if I come across as rude. I'd love to hear your answer to, "Why won't God heal amputees?" I'm not trying to score points or anything. I'm genuinely curious about your answer. Despite our different beliefs, I'm glad we share so much common ground on the issue of vaccination.

That's a legitimate question, and I don't pretend to have an answer. I believe God has healed in numerous cases that defy explanation by placebo, misdiagnosis, or other means, but that tells me little about why he has not done so in others. I could come up with theological theories, but none, at least presently, that I would expect others to find satisfactory. It is also, I admit, not a question I have specifically s…

Fair enough. I used amputees in my example because they were the most obvious, but there are plenty of afflictions that prayer never cures: Down syndrome, spina bifida, cleft palate, Tay-Sachs, dwarfism, etc.

I hope some day that you have a satisfying answer to this question.

Re: Infectious disease doesn't care why you're unvaccinated

#220
post #190

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Umm, what makes you think there isn't a lot of very good data? Start with http://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/vac-gen/side-effects.htm#dtap . I linked to DTaP but there are many others on that page. To report a problem, go to http://vaers.hhs.gov/index , which is the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System. Did you get any paperwork about the immunization? There should have been a flyer or handout like http://www.cdc.gov/vacc…

>Umm, what makes you think there isn't a lot of very good data? Because there isn't. Good data on vaccine outcomes would mean that blood samples would be taken and used to assess the effectiveness of vaccines. Good data would require a follow-up tests post vaccination. Good data means I'd get a report in the mail, and maybe every once in a while the report might say to come and get another X because the test indicate…

Yes, we have different definitions of "good data."

"Good data" for me is enough to establish if there's a public health need. "Good data" for you is much, much higher.

"the test indicates that the last X vaccination was ineffective"

And perhaps impossible. Do these tests even exist? In the various papers I read, there are tests for given antibodies, but the only hard numbers I saw are the infection rates. What's the false positive/false negative rate for these tests? How much do they cost? Who should pay for them, and what's the effective benefit?

Also, the test doesn't need to be 100% effective in everyone in order to be useful. That's the logic behind herd immunity.

"Look at pretty much any vaccine label for evidence to support that."

I did look at the Vaccine Information Statements for several vaccines. I pointed you to one as well.

DTaP: Severe Problems: 1) Serious allergic reaction (less than 1 out of a million doses), 2) Several other severe problems have been reported after DTaP vaccine ... These are so rare it is hard to tell if they are caused by the vaccine.

Hepatitis B: Severe Problems: Severe problems are extremely rare. Severe allergic reactions are believed to occur about once in 1.1 million doses.

MMR: Severe problems: 1) Serious allergic reaction (less than 1 out of a million doses), 2) Several other severe problems have been reported after a child gets MMR vaccine ... These are so rare that it is hard to tell whether they are caused by the vaccine.

Then there's the ones that don't even have numbers, which I assume puts it in the "greater than 1 in a million" probability.

Meningococcal: Severe problems: Serious allergic reactions, within a few minutes to a few hours of the shot, are very rare.

Pneumococcal Conjugate (PCV13): Life-threatening allergic reactions from any vaccine are very rare.

Haemophilus Influenzae Type b (Hib): The risk of Hib vaccine causing serious harm or death is extremely small

Since I couldn't find one with If your clinic has done 100,000 shots, then that's still under a 10% probability that any of their patients have had a problem. But the math doesn't work out as simple as that. If someone isn't allergic to DTaP the first time then that person likely isn't allergic to it the next 4 times. I estimate more like a 2% rate.

> there was a "Massive Pertussis (fear mongering) Outbreak"

Which was an outbreak mostly among those who have not been vaccinated. Your child had been vaccinated. (Well, you didn't say if this was after the 2 month, 4 month, or 6 month shot. If it started the day after the 2 month shot then the immunization wouldn't have started being effective. I don't have enough data to go on.)

> the main thing that any ped. can do to inspire confidence is not to be dismissive of parents' concerns or questions

Agreed. You have every right to make that decision. It is a proper one.

My argument is that your demands on the quality of the information you expect - personalized tests after every vaccination, for example - is not possible. It's expensive, even if feasible, and the major benefit seems to be that it makes people like you more confident.

But that data will also have vague and uncertain parts. It won't be a simple statement of "the last vaccine did not provide enough immunization" but "the number of antibodies is 10% lower than the recommended level. This may increase the risk that your child will be infected in the future by between 1% and 15% compared to full immunization. Enough other children have been immunized so the overall probability is very low, unless . Should you wish a booster shot, please contact your physician."

You complained about "waving more CDC pamphlets at us" -- interpretation of this additional data leads to still more CDC pamphlets.

"I question the claim that in practice, vaccines are manufactured, distributed, and administered with a near miraculous failure rate."

Why do you think it's 'near miraculous' any more than having potable fresh water come out of your tap? A clean water supply has probably saved more lives than all the vaccinations ever done in the US. We bathe in drinking water!

The vaccines which have the higher failure rates, like anthrax, aren't part of the normal schedule. The allergic reaction rate to the anthrax vaccine is ">100,000" so 10x higher than those children get.

The yellow fever vaccine lists "Severe allergic reaction to a vaccine component (about 1 person in 55,000)" and "Severe nervous system reaction (about 1 person in 125,000)" and "Life-threatening severe illness with organ failure (about 1 person in 250,000). More than half the people who suffer this side effect die." That's much higher than anything I saw on any of the childhood vaccines.

Let's look at some less successful vaccines.

The RTS,S malaria vaccine only reduced the chance of infection in children by 31%, which it lower than the 50% that the researchers had hoped for, and much lower than the 90+% from the best childhood vaccines.

The RV 144 HIV vaccine is estimated to be 31.2% effective, but "there is no more than a 71 percent chance that the vaccine was effective at preventing HIV." There are of course many AIDS vaccines which just plain didn't work.

The attenuated form of the polio vaccine would sometimes revert to a more virulent form, which caused vaccine-induced polio in about 1 in 750,000 cases. The US switched to the less effective inactivated form, because those rare polio cases aren't worth the advantage.

And so on.

The first vaccine was for smallpox in 1796. The first compulsory vaccine law was in England in 1853. The rabies vaccine was in 1885. The first polio vaccine in 1955. There's a lot of work behind that "near miraculous failure rate." Why are you so astonished?

For that matter, there are failure rates, just not at the level where you're looking. People get the wrong shots, last year "160,000 doses of the Novartis vaccine, Agrippal, [were] recalled after 'particles' were found in the vials", and this year Merck recalled "1 lot [27,000 vials] of Recombivax HB hepatitis B vaccine (adult formulation, 10 μg/mL) because some of the vials may be cracked."

And so on.

Why does any of this require you have "unreserved faith in the manufacturers of vaccines, and the government", any more than you have faith in the builders of your car, the maintainers of the traffic lights, or the pilots and builders of the plane you fly?

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