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Infectious disease doesn't care why you're unvaccinated

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Re: Infectious disease doesn't care why you're unvaccinated

#181

Earlier quoted context omitted.

20-ish cases is not what I would call a big outbreak. Some of those affected in Texas had received vaccinations, but for whatever reason[1], weren't protected. [1] I guess they had either neglected to get a booster, were not scheduled to receive the full series of shots, or the vaccine's efficacy isn't what it is claimed to be. >My anecdotal experience among anti-vaccination people I've known is that they're only wea…

Well ... it is simple math. If the vaccine is effective 95% (pretty good on its own) and you come in contact with 10 sick people you have a good 40% chance to catch it. That is the whole things with vaccines - the herd immunity is as important in protection as the vaccine itself. It is virtuous positive feedback loop.

This is the part most people don't get, on either side. You're vaccinated? Not a magic bullet, you rely on others around you. Not vaccinated? You're putting others in danger, not just yourself.

A vaccine doesn't have to get anywhere near 100% protection to be effective - it just has to drop the viral coefficient below 1.

Re: Infectious disease doesn't care why you're unvaccinated

#182
post #149

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Here's an example where vaccines cause harm: http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/story/2012/09... By and large though, vaccines are amazing. Just the fact that we have a vaccine which can protect against influenza is pretty fantastic. Life unfortunately always throws you spanners, so even though I think the people who live in the vaccine autism universe are bat shit crazy, it's still good to have people ta…

Well it's still possible to be pro-vaccine in general but against a specific vaccine that does not hold up its end of the risk/reward bargain. There aren't simply two sides where 1 is always pro-vaccine and the other is always quoting Wakefield.

Absolutely. I wasn't trying to paint it as a black and white argument at all, and in fact, quite the contrary.

The people who are against vaccinations are mostly idiots, however, scientists are not infallible. Sometimes they lapse into politics too.

Re: Infectious disease doesn't care why you're unvaccinated

#183
post #151
post #142

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think he simply meant that he's never met someone with autism, in his experience. The point to that being that, if vaccines do cause autism, he should have met someone with autism. The fact that he didn't seems to argue against the hypothesis that vaccines do cause autism.

My point, how does the grandparent know he's never met someone with autism? Autism isn't always a visible disease. The faces of autism are the faces of everyday people. My guess is they have meet or seen an autistic person, and didn't know they were autistic because they have some kind of preconceived notion of what an autistic person looks or sounds like or acts like. Look at the pictures I posted above of my two au…

> The faces of autism are the faces of everyday people.

My oldest son has an ASD. I'm very familiar with the idea that those with a form of autism are not those who simply "look autistic".

Re: Infectious disease doesn't care why you're unvaccinated

#184

Earlier quoted context omitted.

20-ish cases is not what I would call a big outbreak. Some of those affected in Texas had received vaccinations, but for whatever reason[1], weren't protected. [1] I guess they had either neglected to get a booster, were not scheduled to receive the full series of shots, or the vaccine's efficacy isn't what it is claimed to be. >My anecdotal experience among anti-vaccination people I've known is that they're only wea…

> we selectively decline / delay vaccinations Interested to hear your justification for declining / delaying vaccine's, but not considering yourself anti-vaccine.

>Interested to hear your justification for declining / delaying vaccine

I'm interested to hear why a five minute old infant is at risk of contracting Hep-B. Our kids will get Hep-B before they start school. Even if one of our kids did contract Hep-B, it is pretty unlikely that they will be able to give it to your children.

Rota-virus vaccine was suspended by the FDA temporarily,[1] We opted to decline this one even after the suspension was lifted considering seriousness of intussusception[2][3] compared the very low incidence of death or serious injury by rota-virus infection in the US. Even though the suspension wasn't related to the earlier intussusception problem, I considered the incident sign of poor QC and/or a lack of respect for the FDA by the manufacturer. We would probably reconsider if we had plans for international travel with the children, even though our oldest has probably been exposed/infected. (a fun story!) (It sure would be nice if antibody testing were cheap and widely available).

Seasonal Influenza - Declined based on personal negative experience and systematic reviews of vaccine efficacy[4][5]. Every single seasonal influenza vaccine I have taken has resulted in a miserable two-week flu-like state. I have never had a case of the flu as that was as unpleasant as my reaction to the vaccine. I understand most people are not affected so negatively by the vaccine. After reading the Cochrane reviews on the subject, I am inclined to believe that the seasonal Influenza vaccine is an unnecessary and rarely useful product.

Not that I need to worry about it yet, but Cervarix and especially Gardasil seem to have low efficacy WRT to the (possible) risks of the vaccine, especially considering the prognosis for those that contract cervical cancer (women rarely die of cervical cancer). I also find Merck's relationship over the matter with my state's idiot Governor particularly aggravating.

So, basically, if the risk of contracting and or having the illness is low, and if it doesn't needlessly endanger others (like MMR refusal for school-aged children) then I am going to take a good hard look at whether we really need the vaccine.

>not considering yourself anti-vaccine.

Anti-vaccine means you don't allow yourself or your children to be vaccinated. Our children do receive most vaccines at the scheduled time. We have opted to delay or forgo a few vaccines. Lumping people into two opposing factions has had a very negative effect on the debate, as it tends to do in a debate on any subject.

[1] http://www.fda.gov/BiologicsBloodVaccines/Vaccines/ApprovedP...

[2] https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22293889

[3] http://www.fda.gov/BiologicsBloodVaccines/Vaccines/Questions...

[4] 'Flu vaccine doesn't help elderly' http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20166072

[5] Please read the author's conclusions for this one. 'Vaccines for preventing influenza in healthy adults.' http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20614424

Re: Infectious disease doesn't care why you're unvaccinated

#185

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I have also never seen a case of autism. Not sure where you live. There are two kids with autism on my block. Both young boys. Autism is a common disease where I live in the midwest. We have 3 large organizations that only work with Autistic kids. My wife and I have 3 kids and vaccinate them selectively on our own schedule. We vaccinate our kids for the same things that we received as children, nothing more and not…

Chicken pox is not harmless. It kills adults, and if you get it as a child you can get shingles as an adult which is debilitating. Vaccinating on your own schedule is dumb. Do you have a MD? Did you develop the vaccine? Trust the experts. Skipping vaccines is dumb. Science and medicine make progress. To put this in HN terms: this is like saying I'm going to build my startup's website using DOS and XTs, because that's…

This is a weird one. I got shingles about two years ago (when I was 37). It was pretty horrible. My boss who sat in the next office from me got it within two weeks of when I got it, which is a pretty odd coincidence.

When I talked to my doctor about all of this, her hypothesis was that there was probably some other virus which weakened our immune systems to the point where the dormant chicken pox virus could get out and travel up the nerve endings and break out. Her thinking was that as a result of kids getting vaccinated, we're actually not exposed to the virus a lot any more. She felt that as a result shingles was becoming more prevalent in adults because you're not generating as many antibodies.

Through all of this, my daughter who was three at the time, also broke out in slight bumps on her legs. She had been vaccinated against the chicken pox, so the bumps went away and never developed into anything like a full blown case. I remember when I was a kid and got the chicken pox it was pretty horrible.

My point is really that there are side effects to everything. I haven't seen a study of whether shingles is on the rise, so I don't know if my boss and I were just unlucky. My preference is to still vaccinate, but really I'd love to see that particular virus wiped off of the planet.

Re: Infectious disease doesn't care why you're unvaccinated

#186

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One of the current big US measles outbreaks is church-related: http://www.npr.org/2013/09/01/217746942/texas-megachurch-at-... My anecdotal experience among anti-vaccination people I've known is that they're only weakly correlated with religion or politics--leaning slightly left but still all over the map.

20-ish cases is not what I would call a big outbreak. Some of those affected in Texas had received vaccinations, but for whatever reason[1], weren't protected. [1] I guess they had either neglected to get a booster, were not scheduled to receive the full series of shots, or the vaccine's efficacy isn't what it is claimed to be. >My anecdotal experience among anti-vaccination people I've known is that they're only wea…

Vaccines don't work 100% of the time. That's why you shoot for herd immunity.

Vaccines aren't to keep individuals from getting sick; they're to prevent outbreaks and pandemics.

That they prevent most people who receive them from getting sick is an added benefit.

Re: Infectious disease doesn't care why you're unvaccinated

#187

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One of the current big US measles outbreaks is church-related: http://www.npr.org/2013/09/01/217746942/texas-megachurch-at-... My anecdotal experience among anti-vaccination people I've known is that they're only weakly correlated with religion or politics--leaning slightly left but still all over the map.

20-ish cases is not what I would call a big outbreak. Some of those affected in Texas had received vaccinations, but for whatever reason[1], weren't protected. [1] I guess they had either neglected to get a booster, were not scheduled to receive the full series of shots, or the vaccine's efficacy isn't what it is claimed to be. >My anecdotal experience among anti-vaccination people I've known is that they're only wea…

I guess I need to dig deeper with that case, but 20 symptomatic cases is probably linked to many others exposed and needing monitoring and prophylactic care[1]. So maybe not big, but not tiny either.

[1] for example, this case that happened in my old town had 3 symptomatic, but 175 or so others needing treatment: http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/mm5341a3.htm

And I totally get the skepticism of authorities thing. I only developed what trust in medical authorities I have after doing prepress work on a lot of medical textbooks and getting more familiar with the literature. Frankly most of us don't have a chance of keeping up with the state of the field when even professionals can barely keep up.

Re: Infectious disease doesn't care why you're unvaccinated

#188

Yes, I think we should all be vaccinated, as the powers that be confidently tell us. And as a consumer of medicine, I observe that doctors are equally confident when they really don't know what they're talking about, and when their opinions aren't substantiated by science. (The command to wear padded running shoes, for instance.) And I know that the CIA organized a fake "vaccination drive" to get Osama bin Laden. So…

Why don't you give your source for said CIA "drive" the same level of distrust as the FDA and your doctors? Or are you a primary source?

Re: Infectious disease doesn't care why you're unvaccinated

#189
post #174

Spend some time in the autism community, as a parent of a child with autism, and meet other parents of children with autism, and you might have a different opinion about whether children can be vaccine injured after you hear the same stories over and over again.

From another parent of a child with autism, I have two things to say:

1) it's clear from the science that vaccines do not cause autism. Autism becomes noticeable about the same age as vaccination, but its causes are earlier.

2) refusing to vaccinate simply means that you put your autistic child and mine at risk of other diseases.

Get educated and stop doing the wrong thing.

Re: Infectious disease doesn't care why you're unvaccinated

#190
post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"it's a shame that no numbers are mentioned on that side of the coin" Here you go: "The rates of virologically confirmed aseptic meningitis per 10,000 recipients were 16.6, 11.6, 3.2 and 0 for the standard MMR, Takeda MMR, Kitasato MMR and Biken MMR vaccines, respectively." There were 38,203 recipients, and the vaccines "were arbitrarily given". Source is "Adverse events associated with MMR vaccines in Japan", http:/…

Shouldn't there be a _lot_ of very good data about this in the general case, not just for widely recognized anomalous events? I suspect adverse reactions are under-reported. A recent experience does nothing to dissuade me from that notion. (I know, confirmation bias). But the sheer number of vaccinations that take place would provide some very good data. Of course, that data would also probably show at least some occ…

Umm, what makes you think there isn't a lot of very good data? Start with http://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/vac-gen/side-effects.htm#dtap . I linked to DTaP but there are many others on that page.

To report a problem, go to http://vaers.hhs.gov/index , which is the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System.

Did you get any paperwork about the immunization? There should have been a flyer or handout like http://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/hcp/vis/vis-statements/dtap.pdf . This has information both about VAERS, as well as about the National Vaccine Injury Compensation Program.

The "ap" in DTaP vaccine means "acellular Pertussis", which means it uses antigens of the pertussis pathogen rather than whole cells. There should be no infectious material that could cause a bad cough a week later. (It also has fewer side-effects than, but is also less effective than the whole cell vaccine.)

I read that newspaper article you mentioned. It said "Infants under 2 months of age are at the highest risk, accounting for five of Texas' [six] deaths this year" and "80 percent of those were children under 2 months old, who are too young to be vaccinated against the disease."

This is a very different situation than what you are describing, where a cough starts a week after the vaccination. I don't think you can make the inference that it's a side-effect of the vaccination itself based on that article.

The article points out that the new vaccine formulation doesn't seem to be as effective for as long as the old one. What's likely happening is that adults whose immunity has worn off are acting as carriers for the disease, and infecting babies and children who haven't received any immunization for the disease.

This is probably one of the reasons that the Td immunization (DTaP is for children) recommends "All adults should get a booster dose of Td every 10 years."

(While it doesn't confer a life-long immunity, the goal is to prevent pertussis in children; they have the highest risk of death if infected.)

I don't know what to say to you, other than that I, some anonymous person on the internet, agrees with your doctor that "it probably wasn't Pertussis."

> "even considering the low expected rate of serious adverse vaccination events, it is not possible that this clinic has never had a reportable event"

There are different styles of reporting. First off, 25% of the children who receive the DTaP vaccine get a fever, 25% get redness or swelling where the shot was given, and 25% get soreness or tenderness where the shot was given. Your doctor has almost certainly seen those side effects.

But they aren't reported because they are expected. Again, they should be in the handout you got as part of the information about immunization. No doctor is going to report such mild problems.

Then there are the "moderate problems", like seizure, non-stop crying, and a fever of over 105°F. These occur in less than 1:1000 children, which means there should have been a couple of children in your clinic who have had these reactions.

However, it's up to the doctor to decide if this is severe enough to report. The VAERS guideline include "clinically significant adverse health events following vaccination", "vaccination error [that] may pose a safety risk", "or that the error would be preventable with public health action or education" but "accepts all reports."

These moderate problems are likely not 'significant adverse.' The severe cases seem to happen in 1:1 million cases or rarer for the vaccinations I looked at. Even across all of the vaccinations, it's unlikely that your doctor's office would have had that happen to one of their patients.

So, that's one style of reporting. Another style occurs when they get the above statistics in the first place. In that case, they enroll doctors into the program, and have the doctors report all problems that arise after the vaccination. This can be compared to a baseline reference from children who haven't yet had the vaccine. (Eg, the three weeks before the vaccine compared to the three weeks after.) That's used to weed out coincidental correlations. After all, kids do get sick even with vaccines.

This second style of reporting is what's used to list the known risks of the vaccine, with the first style of reporting use to get information about the very rare cases.

What should the doctor have done to improve your sense of confidence? Run a test for pertussis even though your child didn't have the symptoms for the disease? Make a report even though it wasn't a severe adverse effect? The information you wanted - what to do if there was a severe affect - should have been information you already had. I'm somewhat surprised that the staff didn't know that, since I (an anonymous stranger on the internet) knew it existed, but I also only know your side of the story.

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