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Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

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211–220 of 777 posts

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#211
post #151

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But they were supposed to eat other people’s faces. You know THOSE people.

About a quarter of America (whose vote collectively counts for >50%) will happily suffer if it means that people they don't like suffer slightly more.

Reminds me of this: https://www.bostonreview.net/articles/jonathan-m-metzl-dying...

> Even on death’s doorstep, Trevor was not angry. In fact, he staunchly supported the stance promoted by his elected officials. “Ain’t no way I would ever support Obamacare or sign up for it,” he told me. “I would rather die.” When I asked him why he felt this way even as he faced severe illness, he explained: “We don’t need any more government in our lives. And in any case, no way I want my tax dollars paying for Mexicans or welfare queens.”

> At the most basic level, Trevor died of the toxic effects of liver damage caused by hepatitis C. Yet Trevor’s deteriorating condition resulted also from the toxic effects of dogma. Dogma that told him that governmental assistance in any form was evil and not to be trusted, even when the assistance came in the form of federal contracts with private health insurance or pharmaceutical companies, or from expanded communal safety nets. Dogma that, as he made abundantly clear, aligned with beliefs about a racial hierarchy that overtly and implicitly aimed to keep white Americans hovering above Mexicans, welfare queens, and nonwhite others. Dogma suggesting to Trevor that minority groups received lavish benefits from the state, even though he himself lived and died on a low-income budget with state assistance. Trevor voiced a literal willingness to die for his place in this hierarchy, rather than participate in a system that might put him on the same plane as immigrants or racial minorities.

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#212
post #30
post #8

This is an inherently political subject, but I would appreciate a dispassionate argument explaining how this could be even remotely good for the U.S.'s economy in a way that is light on MAGA ideology and doesn't simply claim the overwhelming majority of economists are dumb. I'm simply not seeing even a glimmer of a possible upside right now. I see even less possibility of an upside for those of us North of the border…

My best understanding of the administration's psyche is that they're determined to have more manufacturing happen in the US - regardless of the economic impact. It still doesn't make sense though - there's a reason sneaker makers like to have kids in places like Vietnam make shoes for a few cents per hour. It's because no one in the US would work gruelling hours for such little pay! POTUS wants to 'level the field' b…

They used to work that way in the US! Then came the labor protections.

Labor conditions are a prisoners dilemma. Individuals in a location can’t really choose to opt out of poor labor conditions if that is what exists there. That is why it took a lot of activism in America to change the labor conditions.

So right now we are exploiting people in places that don’t have the same protections. The comparative advantage of those places is in allowing suffering, not in the people actually being more okay with the conditions.

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#213

Isn't it obvious that Trump's goal are not these tariffs, but renegotiated trading agreements? But everybody just seems to love to proclaim this the end of US.

How is that obvious? Why would your 'negotiating stance' be 'give no demands and tariff the entire world, including islands with just penguins, a nonsensical rate?' I mean sure I guess you can say he's negotiating, in which case I'd like you to admit he's a terrible negotiator.

because that's the way he likes to do things?

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#214
post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think that makes sense. Wars happen when one of the sides think they can win (and want something). USA leaving nato and reducing trade makes european states more vulnerable. I would expect this to increase the liklihood of war. Especially in the near term - eventually europe will adapt to the new world order, but in the mean time their is a limited window of opportunity where everything is in flux, which woul…

I'd like to correct you: wars don't happen when just one of the sides thinks they can win, they happen when BOTH sides think so. I think that exactly for this reason Europe needs such a vaccine shot, so they stop they can win a war against Russia.

But... they can? If Ukraine can fight Russia to a standstill, a fully mobilized Europe clearly at least has a shot. Unless it escalates to nuclear weapons and everyone loses... But you need at least an argument if you want to say that is less likely without any initial US involvement, it's not obvious.

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#215
post #169

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> This is an inherently political subject, but I would appreciate a dispassionate argument explaining how this could be even remotely good for the U.S.'s economy in a way that is light on MAGA ideology and doesn't simply claim the overwhelming majority of economists are dumb. The slim hope to a voting bloc in the Upper Midwest that maybe, somehow, this will bring back manufacturing. They've tried everything else; why…

I’m from Southern Ohio which was not hit as hard, but I know the attitude well. I call it “rust belt rage.” I remember during the first Trump election hearing quotes like “I hope he does as much damage as possible” and “I can’t throw a bomb into the White House but I can throw a Trump.” Lots more like that. The attitude in that region of the country is absolute seething rage. A lot of people from Northern Ohio, Weste…

> Imagine what the vibes would be on the West Coast if there was a huge set of policy changes that decimated and liquidated the high tech industries

We had large inflation caused by Joe Biden's industrial revival acts (spurring a massive increase in factory construction (see https://home.treasury.gov/news/featured-stories/unpacking-th...) that led to interest rate rises and a TON of tech layoffs! People on this forum should be aware that the chain of causality runs in that direction.

And are you saying that the US media doesn't pillory Californa as a liberal hellhole? I actually don't even know what distribution of media you consume that doesn't handwring over the morality of liberals.

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#216
post #24

On the bright side, this may be a good opportunity to convert 401(K) or IRA funds into a ROTH account.

Why?

Rebuy equities/reinvest dividends at reduced prices, pay taxes now, enjoy tax-free growth. If the current admin is serious about trying to get rid of income tax, then that would eliminate a major advantage of trad vs roth.

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#217
post #102

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Almost all the trade deficit numbers being thrown around by the US administration don't include trade in services which the US generally has a large surplus. A lot of that is very high margin tech SASS/advertising. If this continues it seems like this could be a "digg->reddit" type moment for US tech. In some ways it is easier for a lot of people to leave facebook than it is for a single person. If you look at gross…

>Almost all the trade deficit numbers being thrown around by the US administration don't include trade in services which the US generally has a large surplus. Then why don’t other countries tax US services? I don’t even hear this from anyone in the media too

I think that's the nuclear option, at least for China.

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#218
post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Hopefully for the US they won't go in a similar crisis like the UK is going through... Err.. do tell about the UK's larger crisis than US'?

Reading the parent's comment I was expecting the UK GDP to have been plunging since Brexit, but that's not the case apparently[0]. Some sectors clearly profited from it, compensating for those who went down the drain. GDP isn't everything and from the outside the UK feel like in a very bad place, but I wonder what's the metric that really captures that status. Inequalities aren't getting that much wider as well. http…

There is a lot of data to talk about that's why I linked the video directly in the other comment. Maybe check it out. For the GDP it may not look bad but compared to other countries and especially the US, the UK is going through what we call a "lost decade". Their GDP should be +25% higher than right now... That's just one (huge) metric talked about in the video.

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#219
post #102

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Almost all the trade deficit numbers being thrown around by the US administration don't include trade in services which the US generally has a large surplus. A lot of that is very high margin tech SASS/advertising. If this continues it seems like this could be a "digg->reddit" type moment for US tech. In some ways it is easier for a lot of people to leave facebook than it is for a single person. If you look at gross…

>Almost all the trade deficit numbers being thrown around by the US administration don't include trade in services which the US generally has a large surplus. Then why don’t other countries tax US services? I don’t even hear this from anyone in the media too

They do - the EU and UK have 'Digital Services Tax' which predominantly targets US social media giants..

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#220
post #145

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This. There is no reason why any country should trust us anymore if entire trade relations can be destroyed by a presidential whim. Even if Trump fell out of a window today and we got a pro-trade president tomorrow, we’re not fixing this damage for a very long time. We probably would have to amend the constitution to insulate foreign policy from the whims of a single person if we want any chance of fixing this in our…

It's already there in the Constitution - Article II, Section 2, Clause 2. Unfortunately other countries chose not to require things in writing and were happy with pinky promises that could be reneged.

We (Canada) literally signed the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement for trade in 2020... with Donald Trump. Trump this February said "Who would ever sign a thing like this?" and proceeded to make up the story about fentanyl coming from Canada as a pretense to ignore this deal. So there was certainly more than a pinky promise.

Additionally your senate just signed law to repeal the tariffs against Canada specifically so I don't know what other receipts or paperwork you'd like here. Not that I expect Trump to adhere to that of course, but I've never heard the perspective of "well these weren't signed agreements" for things that clearly were.

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