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Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

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Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#211
post #187
post #78

Not sure what the fuss is. I tried Deepseek earlier today for the first time and it was even worse than o1 when it came to reasoning skills and following my requests for how I wanted to engage with it. o1 at least gives it to me straight. When I ask it to engage in more back and forth before assuming what I'm after, it tends to follow through. Deepseek seemed immediately eager to (very slowly) feed me a bunch of made…

Deepseek shows you details of the reasoning so you can trust its answers more and you can correct it when it makes a bad turn.

o1 also does this.

Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#212
post #132

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What does Apple have to do with AI

Nothing. Apple (and Meta) are not directly impacted by AI even if the cost of training these AI models becomes cheaper and $0 free models get better. It actually affects the frontier AI companies (OpenAI, Anthropic, etc) who directly make money from their closed models AND spend hundreds of millions on training these models. Why pay $3/per million tokens (Claude 3.5 Sonnet) when DeepSeek R1 offers $0.14 / per million…

> Meta) are not directly impacted by AI even if the cost of training these AI models becomes cheaper and $0 free models get better.

cheaper spam and impersonation engines (LLMs) have a direct impact on the ad network that is strategically downsizing its moderation efforts

Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#213
Seems bad! To me this highlights a failure in the US tech industry. Silicon Valley is theoretically a triumph of entrepreneurship, where the best and best thinking wins. In reality investors picked OpenAI as the winner right out of the gate, gave it more funding than most of us can imagine so that it could dominate the market, sat back and told themselves job done.

Meanwhile in another tech industry a startup had to think lean and innovate its way around resource restrictions. And OpenAI looks like a mess now.

Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#214
post #108

This is an example of a recurrent phenomenon in politics. Trump comes in with big plans, this and that, threatening countries, deporting people, a clear agenda to take America to the hard right. Isolationism, crush China, screw every other country over, etc. etc. And then - something completely unexpected, a total curveball - arrives a week into office and everything changes. Your agenda collapses and you enter react…

> Your agenda collapses and you enter reactive mode. Where has Trump's agenda collapsed? I might have missed the press release. And why would a curveball on AI throw off an agenda around trade, immigration and military engagement? I don't follow. China could take the lead on AI and I don't see it would impact any of those things. Isn't DeepSeek open source? The US already has access to it, so what leverage could Chin…

> Where has Trump's agenda collapsed? I might have missed the press release.

Well, it's too early to say if it has happened in this case. But we've seen it happen again and again, so it will not be a surprise if it happens.

> And why would a curveball on AI throw off an agenda around trade, immigration and military engagement? I don't follow.

Well, trade restrictions against China have just backfired spectacularly. So further trade restrictions may not seem as good an idea. And to start trade wars, you need a strong economy. And at the moment America's economy is entirely driven by the AI bubble, as it is the value of the AI stocks that has separated the economy from the European trend.

It is very likely that military engagement will be driven by, or affected by, developments in AI. And there's no doubt that Taiwan's situation is heavily affected by chip production.

> Do you feel the Chinese government closely controls AI research and timed this response?

No evidence, but I am not naive enough to think it's out of the range of possibility. I don't follow your reasoning, more likely the timing of the release is all they had to modify - which is quite trivial for any government. To not question that would be very naive. They have _every motive_.

Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#215
post #104

This is an example of a recurrent phenomenon in politics. Trump comes in with big plans, this and that, threatening countries, deporting people, a clear agenda to take America to the hard right. Isolationism, crush China, screw every other country over, etc. etc. And then - something completely unexpected, a total curveball - arrives a week into office and everything changes. Your agenda collapses and you enter react…

I said in other threads about how the establishment passed Trump a ticking time bomb – if he were smart, he should've made it blow up early himself to avoid becoming the next Herbert Hoover

He's inherited a bubble. If he chooses to stoke that bubble...

Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#216

Seems bad! To me this highlights a failure in the US tech industry. Silicon Valley is theoretically a triumph of entrepreneurship, where the best and best thinking wins. In reality investors picked OpenAI as the winner right out of the gate, gave it more funding than most of us can imagine so that it could dominate the market, sat back and told themselves job done. Meanwhile in another tech industry a startup had to…

The innovators dilemma.

Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#217
post #123

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can ban the company but are you going to ban any US company from using the open model and running it on their own hardware [1]? The cat is out of the bag and there is no going back. [1] https://apxml.com/posts/gpu-requirements-deepseek-r1

> You can ban the company but are you going to ban any US company from using the open model and running it on their own hardware [1]? Just for the people who might not have been around the last time, this has precedent :) US government (and others) have been trying to outlaw (open source) cryptography, for various reasons, for decades at this point: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crypto_Wars

That statement is, at best, misleading.

The vast majority of what the US government has tried to ban was export of cryptography tools. However, as your own link makes clear, they stopped doing that in 2000.

Furthermore, what was restricted was not "open source cryptography"; it was cryptography that they could not break. The only way that open source comes into it is that that is what made it abundantly clear that the cat was out of the bag and there was no going back.

Hm. Kind of like this situation.

Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#218

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>been obtained illegally. PRC companies breaking US export control laws is legal (for PRC companies). Maybe they're trying to avoid US entity listing, lot's of PRC companies keep mum about growing capabilites to do so. But the mere fact Deepseek is publicizing means they're unlikely to care about the political heat that is coming and the ramifications. If anything, getting on US entity list probably locks in their em…

> PRC companies breaking US export control laws is legal So long as they don't plan to do any business with the US or any of their allies I guess.

This may not be that much of a moat, as Trump seems committed to turning US current allies into former allies.

Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#219
post #2

Nvidia -13% in Frankfurt stock market just now. Valuations of private unicorns like OpenAi and Anthropic must be in free fall. DeepSeek spends $6 million in old H800 hardware to develop open source model that overtakes ChatGPT. AI gets better, but profit margins sink with strong competition. Chinese AI startup DeepSeek overtakes ChatGPT on Apple App Store https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42839656 Edit: Nvidia now…

It's a very strange result. I believe that NVIDIA is overvalued, but if DeepSeek really is as great as has been said, then it'll be even greater when scaled up to OpenAI sizes, and when you get more out you have more reason to pay, so this should if it pans out lead to more demand for GPUs-- basically Jevon's paradox.

You need to be prepared for the reality that naive scaling no longer works for LLMs anymore.

Simple question: where is GPT-5?

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