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September was the most anomalously hot month ever

scientificamerican.com

211–220 of 439 posts

Re: September was the most anomalously hot month ever

#211

> Two main factors are at play in driving temperatures to such extremes: their inexorable increase from burning fossil fuels and an El Niño event that is shaping up to be a strong one. It would be quite educational to attribute in more detail the impact of these two factors. The degree of "El Nino" influence is presumably known, and if its strength is not related with global warming in complicated and unknown ways it…

> It would be quite educational to attribute in more detail the impact of these two factors. The degree of "El Nino" influence is presumably known

Unfortunately, they aren't independent variables. The climate change effects of global warming have also altered the function of El Nino. You can't entirely subtract one variable out because they're interlinked.

If you really wanted to, you could squint and look at the trend lines of previous months and years and try to extrapolate a trajectory. It would still be going up.

Re: September was the most anomalously hot month ever

#212
post #174

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And just on cue there it is: “It is easier to imagine the end of the world than to imagine the end of Capitalism”, variously attributed to Frederic Jameson and Mark Fisher (amongst others).

Because communist countries don’t pollute?

There are issues with the quote, and Communist countries do pollute, but if the argument is (as avgcorrection stated):

> Then it's the small task of changing the economic model of the entire developed (and less developed, and exploited) world. The model that all of the richest and most powerful people depend on.

Then yes, you're talking specifically about Capitalism at this point; avgcorrection is saying that we can't make this change because it conflicts with Capitalism.

;) Unless you're trying to imply that Communism is the driving economic force behind the entire developed world, which I'm going to guess is not something you believe.

I do think it's reasonable to ask whether the problem of human exploitation and the tendency for entrenched powers to cement their own power at the expense of the world is perhaps broader than one economic system and whether that harmful instinct might show up in multiple places and systems beyond only Capitalism. One could very reasonably argue (and I would argue) that Capitalism showcases just one manifestation of a human instinct that corrupts multiple economic systems including Communism.

But avgcorrection's criticism (as far as I can tell) was that we can't shift off of fossil fuels because that shift is incompatible with the driving economic model of our time: Capitalism. So I don't think the quote is inappropriate. It's easier to imagine the end of the world than to imagine the system avgcorrection is referencing (Capitalism) even temporarily bending in order to prevent that end. Whatever solution is proposed is only likely to be adopted if it doesn't conflict with Capitalist ends because Capitalism is fully willing to look directly at an incoming catastrophe, shrug its shoulders, and do nothing if the solution would decrease immediate profits.

Re: September was the most anomalously hot month ever

#213
post #99

Powerbill tripled, food doubled, taxes steadily increasing. Scrabbling for dollars. My attention is consumed. None to spare for "existential crises". Is it a conspiracy?

And yet none of it actualy makes a difference for climate change :) You can tax people to death and still complain the weather is hot and its the end of days. It's a scam and will always be.

Re: September was the most anomalously hot month ever

#214
post #66
post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A large portion of the US populace wants to maintain/increase fossil fuel usage just to stick it to their perceived enemies. Also not hopeful.

What about the portion of the US populace that wants to maintain/increase fossil fuel usage because they think it's the best option they have? Is that not a valid viewpoint?

Come decision time, most people pick whatever meets their needs for the cheapest price.

The ideologically-driven people are a minority. A very vocal minority, but a minority.

Most people just choose what's cheap, convenient, and gets the job done. We can put our fingers on the scale by shifting subsidies and taxes around.

Re: September was the most anomalously hot month ever

#215

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Asking people to have less, experience less, and do less isn’t an argument that can ever win. The winning argument is to show how you can consume more energy for less money by using sustainable technology. Cramped trains will rarely win politically but electric cars that go fast and look cool do win. In essence I believe the only politically viable way to reduce carbon is to engineer and tech our way to systems that…

What you're describing is the path to inevitable collapse. If people will never be able to give up convenience or growth then we really are doomed, tech advantages only slow down that runaway train. I don't actually think it's a fundamental blocker though. People sacraficed quite a bit at home during WWII to support the war effort, we could make similar sacrifices now if we saw our impact on the planet as a similarly…

WW2 only lasted 4-7 years depending on which country you were in. There was direct, visible progress along the way. As soon as the war was over, everything could go back to "normal" (at least for the winners).

What you're asking for is a permanent reduction in standards of living. While that might be the right thing to do, it's going to be difficult to convince average people to vote for that. Many of them are barely getting by as it is and don't think they are able to sacrifice more.

Re: September was the most anomalously hot month ever

#216
post #195

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This whole "experience" thing is overrated. Tens of millions of people go to see Mona Lisa, what do they get out of it? Absolutely nothing IMO. Their travel created an awful amount of CO2. Had they sat at home and read about Renaissance art and history, they and the world would be much better off.

The vast majority of people disagree with your subjective opinion. Most people dont want to sit in front of their computer their entire lives.

They can go and take a stroll in a park. There is more beauty in that than jostling in a crowd of tourists in front of the Mona Lisa.

Re: September was the most anomalously hot month ever

#217
post #203

Earlier quoted context omitted.

All it takes is one wet bulb event in a city near the equator. The deaths will be among those that can’t access climate control powered by cheap fossil fuels.

And I'd happily bet that even with extra wet bulb events, death rate will be lower and life expectancy higher at the equator. And I would assign a .0001% chance of a single wet bulb event killing millions of people.

I’ll take that bet, at 1000:1 odds; that should still be profitable for you. How do you want to handle it?

Re: September was the most anomalously hot month ever

#218
post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think it's an uneducated viewpoint that is supported by the deliberate misinformation of the oil and gas lobby. There are alternatives, there have always been alternatives. Better ones, cheaper ones.

It’s also uneducated to eliminate fossil fuels at the expense of all else. There is real impact to life by destroying economies[0]. This is not a one dimensional problem. 0 - https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal...

No one is demanding to get rid of "fossil fuels at the expense of all else". That's a bit of a straw man.

We're far away from getting to the point where we've gotten rid of fossil fuels at the expense of everything else. We've not actually really started to get rid of fossil fuels, yet.

Re: September was the most anomalously hot month ever

#219
post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Honestly I’m getting tired of the “thinkers” who are just _don’t panic_. That statement just comes across as so disconnected and also doesn’t actually accomplish something. If someone is panicking, the correct solution here is to show that there’s a realistic attempt at solving the problem. Not dismissing their valid feelings of dread and panic.

Well the main issue is that no realistic attempt exists that would be able to solve the problem(s). Thus all that anyone can do inscribe "DON'T PANIC" in large friendly letters per HHGTTG's example, so society can continue to run normally for as long as it can while our planet gets demolished. Welcome to the decline, easiest thing to do is to accept it and have fun while we drive off the proverbial cliff.

I'm not sure why this is being downvoted. Yes, there are some realistic choices that could be made, or could have been made to seriously mitigate the issues. But so far we haven't pursued those, so there are not realistic attempts so far. We're pretending pouring money into renewables is enough, and it isn't. We're pretending that made up carbon credits will help, and they won't because people just use them to lie and steal. Some people pretend consumers aren't the problem, that it is "corporations". Well, those corporations exist only to funnel goods and services into the gaping maws of consumers. You can regulate corporations, and we must, but the idea that change will happen without our own personal sacrifices is foolish. You need to allow a nuclear plant to be built in your backyard, and then another one. You need to start taking the bus to work. You need to stop eating meat. These would be the beginnings of "realistic attempts" if all of society committed to such ideas and changed our collective ideas about what quality of life is.

Re: September was the most anomalously hot month ever

#220
post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think it's an uneducated viewpoint that is supported by the deliberate misinformation of the oil and gas lobby. There are alternatives, there have always been alternatives. Better ones, cheaper ones.

I posit that any deliberate misinformation by the oil and gas lobby can and will be equally matched by deliberate misinformation by the wind and solar lobby. There's no reason to believe that the former is composed of evil people who mislead for the sake of profit, and the latter of good people who just want the best for everybody. If there are "better and cheaper" alternatives available right now, market forces will…

> I posit that any deliberate misinformation by the oil and gas lobby can and will be equally matched by deliberate misinformation by the wind and solar lobby. There's no reason to believe that the former is composed of evil people who mislead for the sake of profit

There is plenty of edvidence to the contrary. See e.g.

“Merchants of Doubt: How a Handful of Scientists Obscured the Truth on Issues from Tobacco Smoke to Global Warming”

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Merchants_of_Doubt

“Tracing Big Oil’s PR war to delay action on climate change”

https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2021/09/oil-companies...

“Exxon Knew about Climate Change almost 40 years ago”

“A new investigation shows the oil company understood the science before it became a public issue and spent millions to promote misinformation”

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/exxon-knew-about-...

As for the market argument, it is costly because all historical capacity is in fossil fuel based systems. This is a major cost advantage to fossil fuel based solutions. Waiting for the market to adjust might be too little to late, climate change is path dependent, you can’t simply undo it.

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