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Asteroid ZTm0038 with a >3% impact probability

newton.spacedys.com

211–220 of 252 posts

Re: Asteroid ZTm0038 with a >3% impact probability

#211
post #130

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I can answer 2 of your questions: - What is the probability that this asteroid will hit us? It's listed in the article: Impact probability 0.034, meaning 3.4% chance of impact. - What is the time interval where that probability applies? It's also listed: impact was estimated to potentially occur between 2023/08/14 04:48 TDB and 2023/08/15 12:22 TDB. (TDB seems to be UTC time without leap seconds? not sure). In other…

Probability without confidence interval is not very useful. If there's <1% confidence - this is not exactly news.

I don't know what you mean.

Re: Asteroid ZTm0038 with a >3% impact probability

#212

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What percent of the times when the initial probability is 3% will it later be revised to zero? Is it more than 97%?

To date the percentage that got revised to zero is 100%. And the only time we had a really close call we didn't see it coming.

That's not correct at all: https://newton.spacedys.com/neodys2/NEOScan/index_past_imp.h...

Re: Asteroid ZTm0038 with a >3% impact probability

#213
post #132

I'm having a weirdly difficult time finding some basic ELI5 answers. - What is the probability that this asteroid will hit us? - What is the time interval where that probability applies? - Do we have a probability distribution for where it might hit? I don't know anything about anything, but I assume we know what *general direction* it's coming from? - Do we have a probability distribution for the potential blast rad…

Found this tweet with an impact probability map that is around northern US/Asia/Europe : https://twitter.com/JoelSercel/status/1691549821629526219 "If it is real this IS the worst asteroid threat ever discovered and the impact location and times are ugly (will post pics shortly). Note that the impact is in the next couple days! However, an Italian colleague of one of our astronomers suspects there is an error in the…

Is there any chance of you having a screenshot?

Re: Asteroid ZTm0038 with a >3% impact probability

#214

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That would sound like a kinetic bombardment weapon and that we were about to get rodded. My level of concern would be sky high!

Depending on how it is aimed... straight in that would be messy.

Without fins, it's unlikely to go straight in. It would start tumbling, and probably break up and burn up. A sphere would more likely get to the surface intact.

Re: Asteroid ZTm0038 with a >3% impact probability

#215
post #213
post #132

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Found this tweet with an impact probability map that is around northern US/Asia/Europe : https://twitter.com/JoelSercel/status/1691549821629526219 "If it is real this IS the worst asteroid threat ever discovered and the impact location and times are ugly (will post pics shortly). Note that the impact is in the next couple days! However, an Italian colleague of one of our astronomers suspects there is an error in the…

Is there any chance of you having a screenshot?

Someone on twitter managed to grab them: https://twitter.com/s53001/status/1691615280726704235

Re: Asteroid ZTm0038 with a >3% impact probability

#216
post #212

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To date the percentage that got revised to zero is 100%. And the only time we had a really close call we didn't see it coming.

That's not correct at all: https://newton.spacedys.com/neodys2/NEOScan/index_past_imp.h...

Fair enough, but those are all relatively small, and detected only hours before impact, their effect would not be such that anything major would happen on the surface of the planet beyond some broken windows and maybe a sunburn.

Anything that size aimed straight down would most likely not reach the ground but burn up in the atmosphere and any remaining bits would just fall at regular terminal velocity.

But from 10 meters and up things change and the Chelyabinsk meteor is remarkable in that it (1) was large enough to have been detected but wasn't and (2) struck while we were apparently focused on one that was more visible but that ultimately missed us. We were very lucky that it impacted where and at the angle that it did, otherwise the airburst might have happened far closer to the ground or to might have impacted directly over much more populated territory. That would have been very bad news.

It doesn't matter how many 1 through 5 meter objects we can track because we have the atmosphere to protected us from the worst of these if we miss the 20 meter ones (or apparently even much larger) that travel at speeds high enough to give their relatively modest mass tremendous energy and for which the atmosphere does not give sufficient (or even any) protection.

Re: Asteroid ZTm0038 with a >3% impact probability

#218
post #68

From other comments in this thread, it seems this risk has passed, but was known three days ago? Was any action taken at all? A 3% risk isn't small.

I don't know what action could be taken. The risk of mass anxiety and the behavior that comes with that is probably greater than any additional safety a vague 3 day warning would provide.

I would want to know, especially if it’s a large object and higher percentage probability, because then it’s a way to tell loved ones what we need to tell them and go forward together in love. We should always strive to do this, of course, but it would still be better to have the opportunity to do it.

Re: Asteroid ZTm0038 with a >3% impact probability

#219

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Unless one in every 33 asteroids that have 3% impact probability at some point in time actually impacts earth, there is clearly some unwarranted assumption in the error bar/distribution calculation. "The measurement data has noise" does not explain why the noise has a bias towards "the asteroid will hit earth" whereas reality so far has been biased towards "the asteroid will not hit earth". (This assumes that signifi…

Imagine you see a car 1 mile away as you're preparing to cross the street. 1 sec later, it's a bit closer. You wonder "will this car hit me?". It's hard to say since the car is so far away and your measurements of its speed are so poor. You wait 5 sec and it's still only imperceptibly closer. You realize there is no way it could possibly hit you. You cross the street unconcerned.

That makes perfect sense. Where it breaks down is if you put percentages on it. If you say the car is a 3% chance of hitting you, it doesn't and you repeat the process a thousand times, and it never hits you something is wrong with your math

Re: Asteroid ZTm0038 with a >3% impact probability

#220

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Imagine you see a car 1 mile away as you're preparing to cross the street. 1 sec later, it's a bit closer. You wonder "will this car hit me?". It's hard to say since the car is so far away and your measurements of its speed are so poor. You wait 5 sec and it's still only imperceptibly closer. You realize there is no way it could possibly hit you. You cross the street unconcerned.

That makes perfect sense. Where it breaks down is if you put percentages on it. If you say the car is a 3% chance of hitting you, it doesn't and you repeat the process a thousand times, and it never hits you something is wrong with your math

The uncertainty is epistemic not aleatoric. The percentage represents our knowledge about the system at the time of measurement propagated through the forward model and is not an inherit random process in the system/model itself.
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