I’m a physical oceanographer. While I have only skimmed this article I would like to make two quick comments. 1) The AMOC is one of the most studied parts of the world ocean and predictions about its collapse have been made since Stommel in 1961. I think in general any study on its imminent collapse should be taken with a grain of salt and it would be wise to wait for further replication and the consensus of the comm…
So say it does collapse, in layman's terms what does that mean?
A forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation
211–220 of 324 posts
Re: A forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation
#212Earlier quoted context omitted.
Like you would any other thing that is outside your circle of influence: kick it out of your circle of concern because you aren't realistically speaking geared up to move yourself into a position where you do have influence. If you don't you end up with the global equivalent of a burn-out and it might start to affect your ability to make decisions about things that you do have influence over because it is paralyzing…
As always I disagree... This is the attitude that "people in charge will do something for you, and if they don't I guess we'll cope" that is undemocratic and breeds passivity. if you are concerned about something it does not mean you must be non stop stressed or forever abandon your life for single cause. You can be concerned and act in constructive ways (lead by example, talk about it, raise the issue, vote, etc), m…
The only time when you have a fractional input on this is at the voting booth and even there the chance is that climate change will not be expressly put on the ballot but you get a mixture of components that you will be able to locally influence. But that sort of mechanism isn't well suited to deal with global problems. Global problems require global coordination and for everybody to play ball. For a variety of reasons (some good, some bad) this isn't going to happen. Climate change is fact. The consequences of climate change are already visible all over the globe. And yet: as long as there is money to be made by industry, wars rage all over the place and various possible checkpoints are passed no single individual that is wondering what they can personally do about it is going to make a shred of a difference by worrying about it to the point that it affects their day-to-day affairs.
Let me be blunt: the time to tackle climate change for real was when we first became aware of it. But all of the above inertia pretty much guaranteed and continues to guarantee that we will not act on a scale where it does matter until it is much, much too late. This year many people will die as a result of climate change. They have no voice but they are affected in the most drastic way possible. Next year it will be more and so on. Until the developed part of the world, and in particular the people in power in the developed part of the world are going to be personally and inescapably affected you're along for the ride.
If this particular thing concerns you and you are not non-stop stressed that only means that you haven't understood it yet.
Re: A forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation
#213Earlier quoted context omitted.
This article isn't great. He says "the IPCC says we won't see extreme weather until 2100.... (except for extreme heat and cold which the IPCC says is already here)" Okay? A lot of the discourse is explicitly about the heat and cold.
But every hurricane season we hear it, it’s been talked about with the Canadian wildfires, locally in Minnesota they’ve been blaming our recent droughts on it, etc. It wasn’t all that long ago that interviewed climate scientists would say that you couldn’t attribute individual events to climate change. Now they constantly do. I feel like I hear it every other time I tune in to NPR.
Re: A forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation
#214I’m a physical oceanographer. While I have only skimmed this article I would like to make two quick comments. 1) The AMOC is one of the most studied parts of the world ocean and predictions about its collapse have been made since Stommel in 1961. I think in general any study on its imminent collapse should be taken with a grain of salt and it would be wise to wait for further replication and the consensus of the comm…
Re: A forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation
#215Earlier quoted context omitted.
Kind of an irrelevant point to make. We're setting new emissions records, so nothing so far has been productive.
It's exceptionally relevant. Excuse my French, but this constant doomerism is really fucking up the kids. >"More than half of the 16- to 25-year-olds in the Lancet survey said they believe humanity is doomed. And close to 40 percent said that fears about the future have made them reluctant to have children of their own." [1] We gave an entire generation anxiety and depression, and it's going to wreak havoc on the fer…
Re: A forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation
#216Earlier quoted context omitted.
It's mentions a potential collapse as early as 2025. More precisely 2025-2095. That is this century and it's accurate to say 2025 is imminent.
Yes, but I - and probably you - will die sometime between 2025 and 2095. I wouldn't say that therefore our deaths are imminent.
Re: A forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation
#217I’m a physical oceanographer. While I have only skimmed this article I would like to make two quick comments. 1) The AMOC is one of the most studied parts of the world ocean and predictions about its collapse have been made since Stommel in 1961. I think in general any study on its imminent collapse should be taken with a grain of salt and it would be wise to wait for further replication and the consensus of the comm…
If you are a real oceanographer, why are you anonymous and using a throw away? You want to both use your credentials to be taken seriously in your posts, but also you want to avoid too much scrutiny of who you are.
Not sure why people are eager to believe literally some guy on the internet. Maybe the people are afraid to believe the other guys, you know, the ones published in Nature.
Re: A forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation
#218Earlier quoted context omitted.
not gonna lie, a scenario where a big nasty effect of climate change pastes Europe first might make the powers that be wake up to the impending disaster faster. For the folks with the big money one death in Europe might be more shocking than 100 deaths in India.
The trouble with climate change has always been that by the time you notice the "big nasty effect" it's already too late to prevent catastrophe. To be clear, it's never too late to improve our fate, but by the time something like the AMOC shutting down destroys Europes climate, you've already signed up for an incredible amount of climate pain. Maybe such an event will wake us up enough to prevent out right extinction…
My understanding with climate change is that we have signed up for a lot already, but much more is on the way if we don't make big changes faster. Humanity is a crisis-motivated species. The trouble with climate change is the effects so far have nearly no impact on power. If AMOC were to shut down in 2030 devastating Europe's economy, that could be the wake-up call to everyone to actually stop fossil-burning ourselves to doom for short-term conveniences.
Re: A forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation
#219Earlier quoted context omitted.
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The world is palpably warmer today than when we were children. Likewise, it was not always the case that summers were characterized by weeks of choking wildfire smoke. Who are you going to believe: the warmth felt by your own skin, or the people telling you that nothing is wrong, and that global heating isn't something to be concerned about? Psychologically it's more comfortable to choose the latter because it implie…
The natural rate of wildfire is about 5x higher than current levels, despite what breathless journalists will push. Check out this chart [1] before modern forest "management" kicked in.
Modern conflagrations are a result of decades of snuffing out small fires.
Also, I live in Arizona and I'm pretty sick of people telling me it's getting hotter. Its not. Our record temperature was set in 1990 [2]. The news claims that every year is "record breaking" by using a different metric every time. Last year it was "number of days over X degrees" this year it's "Average nightime lows" which is more affected by the growing urban heat-island effect than climate change, but I digress.
[1] https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/iISDydT73c1...
[2] https://cals.arizona.edu/maricopa/garden/html/weather/record...
Re: A forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation
#220Earlier quoted context omitted.
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The world is palpably warmer today than when we were children. Likewise, it was not always the case that summers were characterized by weeks of choking wildfire smoke. Who are you going to believe: the warmth felt by your own skin, or the people telling you that nothing is wrong, and that global heating isn't something to be concerned about? Psychologically it's more comfortable to choose the latter because it implie…