Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

US inflation jumps to 31-year high amid global supply chain crisis

theguardian.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

211–220 of 304 posts

Re: US inflation jumps to 31-year high amid global supply chain crisis

#211

Post by mywittyname »

seibelj wrote: post #29
garden_hermit wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wouldn't the evidence of inflation occurring in other countries suggest that COVID is its primary driver, rather than a specific monetary policy? (though it does seem that the scale of inflation in the U.S. is a little higher than elsewhere) See for example: UK: https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/boe-chief-economist-says-uk... Australia: https://www.reuters.com/business/australia-core-inflation-sp... China: https://www…

US is world reserve currency. We have the ability to print unlimited dollars. All other currencies are primarily backed by US dollars. Most important commodities like oil are priced in USD. Therefore, US drives inflation globally.

No. If the GBP goes up 10% relative to USD, and oil prices go up by 10% in USD, then oil prices remained flat in countries using the GBP, but increase for those using USD.

There's no magic here.

Re: US inflation jumps to 31-year high amid global supply chain crisis

#212

Post by bell-cot »

coding123 wrote: post #107
simonsarris wrote: post #13

I've mentioned before [1] but these prices still don't seem that serious. Most prices have still not beat their highs made in 2008-2014 (crude oil, global energy price, eggs, milk, sugar, rice, chicken, pork chops). Ground beef is an outlier, however. And US price per kwh is back at its peak, though it declined in these October numbers to be below... 2014 numbers again. [2] So while the climb up is bad, the prices th…

Not a single item I buy in the grocery store right now is less than 50% more expensive than it was 6 months ago.

Here (Michigan, US) there is not a single grocery item I buy that has gone up even 35%. Most items have not gone up at all.

Might you tell us your approximate location?

Re: US inflation jumps to 31-year high amid global supply chain crisis

#213

Post by rsj_hn »

WarOnPrivacy wrote: post #210
rsj_hn wrote: post #196

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Over the last generation, indications are far over half experienced regular struggles. Most people experience "regular struggles", by definition. Life is a struggle. But we have a way of defining who is poor and who isn't in terms of income, and it's good to use the same language as everyone else. The "large majority" of the U.S. is not poor. That's just obviously true from the income data I cited. If that data is…

> Most people experience "regular struggles", by definition. Life is a struggle. This seems obtuse. The entire thread is focused on finances. It should be self-evident my post is referring to financial struggles. > But we have a way of defining who is poor and who isn't in terms of income, and it's good to use the same language as everyone else. Different metrics aren't a different language. > The "large majority" of…

> Different metrics aren't a different language.

You aren't citing a "different metric". You are citing an unscientific internet poll by Bankrate.com, whose results were released as a PR announcement meant to encourage people to open savings accounts. The "no savings" means "no money in a savings account" by those who answer the poll. You know nothing about whether these people were even in the labor force, how old they were, what money they had in checking accounts or 401Ks or money market mutual funds, and whether they were a representative sample (N=hundreds). Because an internet poll is not a study, and a marketing campaign is not scientific data.

This is clickbait. If you have a quality study not published by bankrate.com, then please cite it. And also explain why you are ignoring the US Census and the SCF, which is what everyone who studies household wealth uses.

I am citing the gold-standard academic study of household finances -- the survey of consumer finances, and the gold standard study of income as determined by the Census. This is not a situation of "different metrics", this is a situation of bad data versus good data leading to bad conclusions versus accurate conclusions.

Please look to the Census and academic studies to form your worldview of the state of US household finances rather than Bankrate.com's marketing department.

Re: US inflation jumps to 31-year high amid global supply chain crisis

#214

Post by Jeema101 »

AnthonyMouse wrote: post #4

People need to decide whether they think this is because of supply chain issues and the demand spike following COVID or if it's because of the Fed.

I'm not sure a distinction really matters at this point. Supply chain issues are complex and not within the direct control of policymakers. The money supply, on the other hand, is.

"Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon in the sense that it is and can be produced only by a more rapid increase in the quantity of money than in output" -Milton Friedman

Re: US inflation jumps to 31-year high amid global supply chain crisis

#215

Post by mullingitover »

missinfo wrote: post #187
simonsarris wrote: post #13

I've mentioned before [1] but these prices still don't seem that serious. Most prices have still not beat their highs made in 2008-2014 (crude oil, global energy price, eggs, milk, sugar, rice, chicken, pork chops). Ground beef is an outlier, however. And US price per kwh is back at its peak, though it declined in these October numbers to be below... 2014 numbers again. [2] So while the climb up is bad, the prices th…

From the CEO of Square who access to real world data at scale: Hyperinflation is going to change everything. It’s happening. https://twitter.com/jack/status/1451733913961783299

CEO of Square, but also kind of a crank who's long on crypto, so he has a vested interest in convincing people to YOLO their savings into crypto so he can cash in. I take his statements with several blocks of salt.

Re: US inflation jumps to 31-year high amid global supply chain crisis

#216

Post by AlgorithmicTime »

mejutoco wrote: post #204
caeril wrote: post #201

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not about "will", it's about ability. The fed funds rate is technically disconnected from, but highly correlated to, the TSY yield curve, particularly at the short end. Our current sovereign debt-to-GDP ratio does not really permit a 10y TSY yield above about 4.5% without calling into question our ability to service the debt. Powell is painted into a corner - he simply can't hike significantly. He faces the shor…

Not to be that guy, but it is cojones (cajones means drawers)

So your cojones are held snugly by your cajones?

Re: US inflation jumps to 31-year high amid global supply chain crisis

#217

Post by MeinBlutIstBlau »

dlp211 wrote: post #152
MeinBlutIstBlau wrote: post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I remember thinking $50k was an awesome salary when I first started working. Now I think "damn how do families survive off that kind of household income" after seeing essential goods and services cost roughly 1.5x what they were pre stimulus.

Median household income has gone up. It's currently the highest it's ever been in real terms. Households are better off today then they have ever been in their day-to-day affordability of goods. You also can't cherry-pick a handful of things that have gone up a lot and then assume that it applies to everything. Some things have gone up in price, others haven't. Inflation is sitting at about 6%, which after a decade+…

Average hourly wage near me is like $12/hr. That's basically 50k in a 2 adult household. If anyone is projecting it's you thinking everyone has a middle class job...

Re: US inflation jumps to 31-year high amid global supply chain crisis

#218

Post by u320 »

WarOnPrivacy wrote: post #167
u320 wrote: post #120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Prices are always moving so you can say anything you want by cherrypicking individual categories. That says nothing about inflation.

For this comment to be helpful, you could offer links about goods that you feel better better represent inflation.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIUFDSL

I'm not saying food prices (even broad baskets like the this) represents inflation. The broad indexes are better for that. But it's not true to say that food prices are at the same level as a decade ago.

Re: US inflation jumps to 31-year high amid global supply chain crisis

#220

Post by throwawaygh »

podgaj wrote: post #163
throwawaygh wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This post and its parent hit the nail on the head. Levels aren't particularly worrisome. High, sure, not scary high. However, you should still be worried. Just not about current prices. It's various first and second derivatives + the amount of "potential energy" in the system that have (informed) people scared.

But you’re mistaking inflation for the rate of inflation growth. The rate of inflation growth is horrible right now.

> But you’re mistaking inflation for the rate of inflation growth.

You mean... like... a first derivative? What am I mistaken about? I literally said literally exactly this:

>> It's various first and second derivatives + the amount of "potential energy" in the system that have (informed) people scared.

(and, in fact, it's not just the rate of inflation but also several other related rates of change and rates of rates of change and stocks of things that can fuel changes in those rates, but engaging in that nuance seems a bit fruitless given that you seem to be literally repeating my own point back to me while thinking you're disagreeing with me.)

> The rate of inflation growth is horrible right now.

yes thanks for repeating my point for me.

Post reply on HN