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US inflation jumps to 31-year high amid global supply chain crisis

theguardian.com

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Re: US inflation jumps to 31-year high amid global supply chain crisis

#151

Post by ashtonkem »

simonsarris wrote: post #13

I've mentioned before [1] but these prices still don't seem that serious. Most prices have still not beat their highs made in 2008-2014 (crude oil, global energy price, eggs, milk, sugar, rice, chicken, pork chops). Ground beef is an outlier, however. And US price per kwh is back at its peak, though it declined in these October numbers to be below... 2014 numbers again. [2] So while the climb up is bad, the prices th…

There have been some supply shocks in the past year, but I'm increasingly convinced that the disaster rhetoric around inflation is more of a political argument more than an economic one. Personally I suspect it has more to do with justifying austerity in order to curb labor's demand for more money than anything else.

Re: US inflation jumps to 31-year high amid global supply chain crisis

#152

Post by dlp211 »

MeinBlutIstBlau wrote: post #62
JackPoach wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Clearly the Fed mostly. We'll see it once the supply chain issues go away, but high prices stay high.

I remember thinking $50k was an awesome salary when I first started working. Now I think "damn how do families survive off that kind of household income" after seeing essential goods and services cost roughly 1.5x what they were pre stimulus.

Median household income has gone up. It's currently the highest it's ever been in real terms. Households are better off today then they have ever been in their day-to-day affordability of goods.

You also can't cherry-pick a handful of things that have gone up a lot and then assume that it applies to everything. Some things have gone up in price, others haven't. Inflation is sitting at about 6%, which after a decade+ of sub-2% might seem like such a shock, but it isn't really a big deal.

Re: US inflation jumps to 31-year high amid global supply chain crisis

#153

Post by podgaj »

seanmcdirmid wrote: post #17

Interest rates really should have went up a couple of years ago. Not just for the sake of stemming inflation, but what good is the tool of lower rates in bad times when they are already at bottom in good times? If something goes wrong (or more wrong) we will have no effective economic tools available because they are constantly running as if we are in crisis already.

I agree. Plus if you look at 90 day credit card delinquency’s and credit card balances they’re going in the opposite direction. Delinquency’s are going down right now, but inflation can change this quickly. It’s been said that the lower delinquency rate is solely due to stimulus payments.

Re: US inflation jumps to 31-year high amid global supply chain crisis

#154

Post by anm89 »

dlp211 wrote: post #124
anm89 wrote: post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Right but with massive debts and a fairly weak economy that is show signs of continuing to slow, this is exactly why the Fed is between a rock and a hard place. The smart mmoney is on rates staying low for a long time which shows you just how powerless the Fed is right now. They would LOVE to raise rates. They can't.

> Right but with massive debts and a fairly weak economy that is show signs of continuing to slow, this is exactly why the Fed is between a rock and a hard place. lol? whut? Stop talking about government debt, it's a stupid talking point used to beat people over the head with who want to govern by misleading voters into believing that government debt is the same as household debt. Also, what weak economy? Economic gr…

Saying lol doesn't invalidate basic economics

> Stop talking about government debt, it's a stupid talking point

Said not a single respectable person in economics or finance ever.

Re: US inflation jumps to 31-year high amid global supply chain crisis

#155

Post by ASinclair »

There's one thing I've never quite understood. There seems to be some sort of obsession with inflation and Fed policy among the HN/Reddit demographic. Could it be the crossover with interest in Cryptocurrencies?

I could be wrong but it's just something I've noticed over the years.

Re: US inflation jumps to 31-year high amid global supply chain crisis

#156

Post by jjk166 »

kerng wrote: post #121
srj wrote: post #113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're the one who made the assertion - curious on your sources. If you're simply looking at fiscal stimulus spending that's a pretty naive view of economics.

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/money-supply-m0 Look at 5 year view.

Look at the 25 year view. 2014-2019 was an anomaly where us GDP grew 22% while the money supply contracted by 25%, we are currently back to the straight line we've been on since 2008.

Re: US inflation jumps to 31-year high amid global supply chain crisis

#157

Post by podgaj »

wayoutthere wrote: post #18
seanmcdirmid wrote: post #17

Interest rates really should have went up a couple of years ago. Not just for the sake of stemming inflation, but what good is the tool of lower rates in bad times when they are already at bottom in good times? If something goes wrong (or more wrong) we will have no effective economic tools available because they are constantly running as if we are in crisis already.

Nobody wants to be the next Jimmy Carter who lets the fed raise interest rates to stem inflation because it invariably triggers a recession that gets said president and his party voted out of office. So rates will stay perpetually low.

Democrats are the Charlie Brown’s of politics. And Republicans are Lucy.

Re: US inflation jumps to 31-year high amid global supply chain crisis

#158

Post by WarOnPrivacy »

anonymouse008 wrote: post #126
kerng wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You miss the key point on why this is happening and will continue to get significantly worse. What happens when the number of dollars approximately doubles in 2 years as it happened? Do you think prices stay the same and everything is just 50% off? Reality is that the current number is off by reality quite a bit, real number has to be much higher. It's just math and the worst part... it can't be just reversed.

> Reality is that the current number is off by reality quite a bit, real number has to be much higher. It's just math and the worst part... it can't be just reversed. I am now starting to wonder if the unrealized gains tax is the 'reversal' and the interdemensional checkmate on hidden wealth.

Are you recommending the world spend a bit of it's hoarded wealth, to allow less money to be printed?

You're a monster.

Re: US inflation jumps to 31-year high amid global supply chain crisis

#159

Post by long_time_gone »

dlp211 wrote: post #124
anm89 wrote: post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Right but with massive debts and a fairly weak economy that is show signs of continuing to slow, this is exactly why the Fed is between a rock and a hard place. The smart mmoney is on rates staying low for a long time which shows you just how powerless the Fed is right now. They would LOVE to raise rates. They can't.

> Right but with massive debts and a fairly weak economy that is show signs of continuing to slow, this is exactly why the Fed is between a rock and a hard place. lol? whut? Stop talking about government debt, it's a stupid talking point used to beat people over the head with who want to govern by misleading voters into believing that government debt is the same as household debt. Also, what weak economy? Economic gr…

> Also, what weak economy? Economic growth is up, wages are up, unemployment is down, personal debt is down. The only thing that is currently "weak" in the US economy is our JIT supply lines, and that will work itself out eventually.

Agree with this take. The GDPNow estimate for Q4 growth is 8.5%. A lot of this seems to be getting lost in the politically obsessed back-and-forth.

https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow

Re: US inflation jumps to 31-year high amid global supply chain crisis

#160

Post by rsj_hn »

ashtonkem wrote: post #151
simonsarris wrote: post #13

I've mentioned before [1] but these prices still don't seem that serious. Most prices have still not beat their highs made in 2008-2014 (crude oil, global energy price, eggs, milk, sugar, rice, chicken, pork chops). Ground beef is an outlier, however. And US price per kwh is back at its peak, though it declined in these October numbers to be below... 2014 numbers again. [2] So while the climb up is bad, the prices th…

There have been some supply shocks in the past year, but I'm increasingly convinced that the disaster rhetoric around inflation is more of a political argument more than an economic one. Personally I suspect it has more to do with justifying austerity in order to curb labor's demand for more money than anything else.

> I suspect it has more to do with justifying austerity in order to curb labor's demand for more money

The problem with blowing off inflation because you think it empowers workers is that the latest round of inflation more than erased all the wage increases that were provided. In real terms, workers have been falling behind.

So perhaps to make those labor demands more real, it might be a good idea if the government wasn't competing with the private sector for goods and services.

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