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The mutation that helps Delta spread

nature.com

211–220 of 641 posts

Re: The mutation that helps Delta spread

#211

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> We can reasonably say the Black Death killed 30% of Europe's population. We can't reasonably say covid won't do the same I was going along, nodding my head in agreement until this. Do you realize how bad medical care was during that era? Hygiene? Knowledge of how to slow transmission in a community (we Americans have not yet even BEGUN to really take COVID seriously)? Do you realize how vastly more deadly than Blac…

> It's absurd. People said that about the idea that covid would become a pandemic too, you just proved my point.

That doesn't prove your point at all. The fact that someone disagrees with you doesn't prove you're right.

Re: The mutation that helps Delta spread

#212
post #151

Purely anecdotal but I'm double vaccinated (Astra Zeneca) and I caught Covid recently. It was probably Delta as 99% of cases in UK are. I know of quite a few vaccinated friends who've caught it recently too. Mainly AZ I think but one was Pfizer (single jabbed). Anyway, none of us had severe illness although I felt pretty rough for a few days like I had a really bad cold and smell went for a week completely. I was bas…

a bit more A bit more until the virus decides to go away? Or a bit more until they invent a non-leaky vaccine? Or a bit more like when the cows come home? Because that's what you are talking about. A bit more forever.

A bit more until, by combination of the virus mutating to less dangerous forms and everyone's immune system being primed against it, it settles somewhere between common cold and the flu.

Re: The mutation that helps Delta spread

#213

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Have we perhaps forgotten about Sweden which: - Did not force lockdown / masks onto anybody - Has one of the least vaccinated population in Europe (around 40% afaik) - Has had 0 covid deaths in the last couple weeks. - Has not had it worse than countries with stricter mandates. Are we also forgetting about Iceland / Israel which are among the most vaccinated countries in the world (on top of having stringent mandates…

Have you been actually following how things have gone? Sweden has 1708% more deaths to covid vs Norway, but only 84% higher population. That doesn't sound that great to me.

This comparison between two datapoints is not too useful. The graphs at https://euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/ provide a more nuanced picture, with the caveat that those are graphs of excess mortality and not necessarily covid-specific.

Re: The mutation that helps Delta spread

#214

Covid is going to be endemic like the flu and cold. It's not going to be eradicated, unfortunately, and I don't think we've come to terms with this yet. Now what's our plan exactly? Get vaccinated every 6 - 12 months indefinitely and always wear masks? What's our goal and what's our new normal?

I already get vaccinated every 12 months for the flu, so that seems like a fine plan to me.

Perhaps they could add it to the flu shot.

Re: The mutation that helps Delta spread

#215
post #151

Purely anecdotal but I'm double vaccinated (Astra Zeneca) and I caught Covid recently. It was probably Delta as 99% of cases in UK are. I know of quite a few vaccinated friends who've caught it recently too. Mainly AZ I think but one was Pfizer (single jabbed). Anyway, none of us had severe illness although I felt pretty rough for a few days like I had a really bad cold and smell went for a week completely. I was bas…

Do you have awareness that your anecdotal data, even if it were more than anecdotal, still would not prove that the shots you've taken reduced the symptoms, as many cases are asymptomatic / mild symptoms anyways?

Re: The mutation that helps Delta spread

#216

Covid is going to be endemic like the flu and cold. It's not going to be eradicated, unfortunately, and I don't think we've come to terms with this yet. Now what's our plan exactly? Get vaccinated every 6 - 12 months indefinitely and always wear masks? What's our goal and what's our new normal?

I've been asking those questions for about 16 months now and hardly anyone of those in charge is willing to even consider an answer. They just botch and bumble their way through from one lockdown to the next. The COVID-19 vaccines are a boon and a vital component for ending this crisis. However, they're not the panacea those in charge made them out to be. Make no mistake, those vaccines, particularly those of the mRN…

Getting tested - have you? - is not neutral on your body. The nasal swab is sterilized by a carcinogen gas which exposure should be limited and you can’t avoid wrong gesture by a nurse physically damaging your nose. It’s fine time to time but not everyday.

Re: The mutation that helps Delta spread

#217

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Slightly off-topic: shouldn't the 'new normal' be to wear N95/N99 masks? We know they're far more effective, and there's been plenty of time to ramp up production. I don't see why the 'normal' option is to wear a non-medical mask. It's also surprising that societies are entirely incapable of doing a hard lockdown for 3 weeks with mandatory testing at the end. I imagine that would be enough to reduce the case count to…

Just asking: would they also be effective in a slightly clueless general public? Eg they only work when they are in your face, fitted, etc. It could be that cost/actual benefit looks worse when you factor poor usage.

That's actually what Dr Fauci initially talked about with regard to the general public. With how masks are worn and used in practice, he was probably right.

Fauci: There’s no reason to be walking around with a mask. When you’re in the middle of an outbreak, wearing a mask might make people feel a little bit better and it might even block a droplet, but it’s not providing the perfect protection that people think that it is. And, often, there are unintended consequences — people keep fiddling with the mask and they keep touching their face.

LaPook: And can you get some schmutz, sort of staying inside there?

Fauci: Of course, of course. But, when you think masks, you should think of health care providers needing them and people who are ill.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5gYAka7qSnM

Re: The mutation that helps Delta spread

#218
post #151

Purely anecdotal but I'm double vaccinated (Astra Zeneca) and I caught Covid recently. It was probably Delta as 99% of cases in UK are. I know of quite a few vaccinated friends who've caught it recently too. Mainly AZ I think but one was Pfizer (single jabbed). Anyway, none of us had severe illness although I felt pretty rough for a few days like I had a really bad cold and smell went for a week completely. I was bas…

Same. My breakthrough infection lasted over a week. Nothing serious, but definitely very infectious, so I self quarantined. I’ve had minimal social contact and just about avoided COVID the original, so it was surprising how quickly I caught Delta after it became dominant.

Re: The mutation that helps Delta spread

#219

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> - Lockdowns should have stopped covid. Maybe if people obeyed them, which they did not. > - Masks should have stopped covid. Maybe if people wore them, which they did not. > - Vaccines should have stopped covid. Maybe if people got them, which they did not. And now that there are new variants in the wild because of people not doing all of those things, the vaccines, lockdowns, and masks still keep ICU beds from ove…

Have we perhaps forgotten about Sweden which: - Did not force lockdown / masks onto anybody - Has one of the least vaccinated population in Europe (around 40% afaik) - Has had 0 covid deaths in the last couple weeks. - Has not had it worse than countries with stricter mandates. Are we also forgetting about Iceland / Israel which are among the most vaccinated countries in the world (on top of having stringent mandates…

> Have we perhaps forgotten about Sweden: - Has not had it worse than countries with stricter mandates.

Please explain this graph comparing Covid deaths in Sweden to its immediate neighbors that shows the opposite of what you're saying:

https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explor...

> - Has had 0 covid deaths in the last couple weeks.

Deaths per week are a function of previous deaths and population distribution. If more people die at the beginning, then fewer are left to die later. That's how dying works. Sweden's weekly per capita deaths peaked much higher than in the US or EU overall, and they've lost more people per capita than their neighbors.

A person who cares about numbers should be looking cumulatively, not just within some specific narrow window.

> Are we also forgetting about Iceland / Israel which are among the most vaccinated countries in the world

Israel isn't even in the top 30 and their vaccinations flatlined back in February, they prematurely declared victory, and people went back to licking doorknobs. But let's ignore all of that for now.

Congratulations, people faffed around fighting against restrictions and vaccination for so long that now we have successfully developed a mutation that achieves viral escape. Go team! Yay! Mission accomplished!

Vaccines and lockdowns and mask mandates still appear to prevent deaths and hospital overflow. How do we know? Because deaths and ICU bed percentages go down during lockdowns and go up when lockdowns end and because a tiny fraction of the people dying are vaccinated.

Keep in mind also that Iceland still has one of the lowest total per capita COVID death rates of any place in the world. It's also a weird little volcanic island with everyone living in only a few places with a major international transit hub between Europe and North America. The few places in the world doing better than Iceland are places which also lock down quickly.

> Going back to common sense

Except that your "common sense" tells you that Sweden has done great and that Israel and Iceland are doing poorly when compared to other countries the opposite is true. How then should we assess the accuracy of your common sense?

My common sense says that people who refuse the vaccine should just be refused access to hospital resources if they get sick. It would neatly address a lot of issues.

Re: The mutation that helps Delta spread

#220
post #151

Purely anecdotal but I'm double vaccinated (Astra Zeneca) and I caught Covid recently. It was probably Delta as 99% of cases in UK are. I know of quite a few vaccinated friends who've caught it recently too. Mainly AZ I think but one was Pfizer (single jabbed). Anyway, none of us had severe illness although I felt pretty rough for a few days like I had a really bad cold and smell went for a week completely. I was bas…

Note that it appears that it is still unknown how likely breakthrough infections are to result in long Covid. The very limited data that does exist indicates that the likelyhood is rather high (~20%). https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/16/well/live/vaccine-long-co...

Isn't long Covid caused by damage from the spike proteins? In that case, repeatedly giving people the vaccine might do damage as well since it gets you to produce those spike proteins right?
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