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Climate models are running red hot, and scientists don’t know why

bloomberg.com

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Re: Climate models are running red hot, and scientists don’t know why

#211
post #192
post #185

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think what precedes the problem you mention (and one of the main points in the article) is the problem of generating reduced uncertainty in the model. Maybe there’s a chance for more granular data to enhance that?

The problem isn’t the granularity of observations, it’s the granularity of the grid with which the simulations are run. As I understand it (by analogy with my own field of macroeconomics) the current limit is the fact that the grid is coarser than the average size of a cloud, and that therefore cloud cover needs to be approximated. That is the real source of uncertainty.

Interesting. So is the grid limited due to computational complexity, like the mesh in finite element analysis?

Re: Climate models are running red hot, and scientists don’t know why

#212
post #167

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I suppose my immediate question is - is there any way for an non-professional with a pair of eyes and a smartphone to contribute in a crowd-sourcy way?

Why do you want to a horde of “non-professional[s] with a pair of eyes and a smartphone” to contribute if literally hundreds of professionals with high-end equipment, meteorological observation satellites, and oodles of computational firepower are already on the task? The main problem has never been a lack of science, the problem has always been (and alas, continues to be) a lack of political wherewithal to actually…

>Why do you want to a horde of “non-professional[s] with a pair of eyes and a smartphone” to contribute if literally hundreds of professionals with high-end equipment, meteorological observation satellites, and oodles of computational firepower are already on the task?

Because the Earth is huge, data collection is expensive, and funds are limited. There is a lot of [literal] ground to cover and it's perfectly feasible to augment professional work with amateur data, now that pressure, temperature, and location sensors are relatively cheap and ubiquitous.

Re: Climate models are running red hot, and scientists don’t know why

#213
post #77
post #3

Well, politicians aren't doing anything anyway, whether the models predict catastrophe or CATASTROPHE. Already according to the 3° sensitivity predictions we would need an effort that rivals WW2 to stay below 1.5°. Yet major countries are led by climate denialists.

Even a 5C (9F) warming is not "CATASTROPHE." See: https://www.forbes.com/sites/ucenergy/2018/12/05/will-global... > While it is true that we estimated damages as high as 10% of GDP annually at the end of the century for warming of 15°F above pre-industrial levels, the odds of a temperature change that would drive damages of this magnitude are slim. In fact, they are less than 1-in-100 by our original calculation. Und…

Also from that link:

> Our localized approach to studying the relationship between climate and society reveals that the burden is spread unevenly. In many counties, GDP decline could total more than 10% by 2100, and in the worst-hit county, Florida's Union County, losses could near 28% for a likely warming scenario under continued emissions growth (the 7°F median change, not the extreme 15°F change highlighted in press coverage). The combined tally almost certainly understates the extent of the damages, because the worst effects are concentrated in places where incomes are lowest. Tumbling incomes in poor counties have a correspondingly small impact on nationwide GDP, meaning the economic burden of climate change is reduced because it falls on those with low incomes.

> If the burden is spread evenly, 1% or 2% of national GDP might seem manageable, but we will not all be equal in the face of climate change. Across the United States, there will be winners and losers. What is lost in all of this noise is the sad fact that even those smaller numbers are too high a cost. They come from a subset of outcomes that are well-measured. As ever in this debate, it is important that we look beyond the headlines, beyond the averages, and examine the people at the heart of the issue. Look at the mass of evidence that points to people who will actually be negatively affected by climate change. They are not abstract people not-yet-born and in some far-off land. They are your neighbors. They are your friends. They are you. Combining local climate projections with historical observations yields a personalized, evidence-based outlook of future risk. Our ongoing research is mapping out these local impacts across the globe.

That sounds pretty catastrophic.

Re: Climate models are running red hot, and scientists don’t know why

#214
post #3

Well, politicians aren't doing anything anyway, whether the models predict catastrophe or CATASTROPHE. Already according to the 3° sensitivity predictions we would need an effort that rivals WW2 to stay below 1.5°. Yet major countries are led by climate denialists.

"we would need an effort that rivals WW2" Exactly and from what I remember WW2 had around 75 million casualties. Which is an unfortunate and grim prediction on what it's going to take to get any real action from politicians.

Re: Climate models are running red hot, and scientists don’t know why

#215

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The other sad conclusion to derive from this is that the "improvements to urban planning" bit is largely not happening, despite generally broad bipartisan support. It signals to me that people like complaining about things, but do not participate in politics in any productive fashion. Right now it's just team sports, and most people can not name the candidate they are voting for, outside of the presidential election,…

It may also be that people like the idea of 'improvements in urban planning' when they are intangible, but if those changes involved limiting their land use or bulldozing their inefficient homes and neighborhoods they balk; they may also not like moving those planning decisions from their local communities to some bureaucracy outside of their direct engagement.

Don't need to bulldoze much of anything to do something though. The inefficiency of buildings is a tiny part of the problem, especially in temperate climates; more mixed use zoning, and the relaxing of single family dwelling zoning, will have a dramatic impact on excess travel.

Transport accounts for basically a third of U.S. energy use, though it has been hardly growing over the last few years, which is a good start.

The most efficient car, bus, or train, is the one that you didn't ride.

Re: Climate models are running red hot, and scientists don’t know why

#216

I'm reminded of Feynman's famous anecdote about the Millikan oil drop experiment: Millikan underestimated the charge of the electron, and over the ensuing years, subsequent measurements slowly but surely converged on the correct value. Why? Because experimenters who got the correct value figured it must be too high, and ran the experiment again until they got a more-erroneous value, one that was nonetheless higher. E…

this is textbook middlebrow contrarianism. using some quote from some recognizable name to dismiss the incredible work of dozens of top of their field professionals doing their life's work. its a perfect example of the way hacker news "types" do climate change denial. via endless "well-actuallys" until you're lost and stuck in a level of analysis-paralysis that borders on an anxiety disorder. the problem with solving…

This comment is inappropriate and should be removed. It violates the #1 fundamental rule of this forum - to argue the argument, not the arguer.

Re: Climate models are running red hot, and scientists don’t know why

#217

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So if I asked you to bet at 50/50 odds that next year would be colder on average than this year, you'd take the bet?

That's not what climate is about. Also, it depends on location, in many places it was colder in 2019 than in 2018. If you're talking about some calculated "global" temperature, it doesn't exist in a valid form.

you can, in fact, compute a mean temperature for the globe. and you can, in fact, plot a trend line over that mean. and that mean is, in fact, meaningful.

Re: Climate models are running red hot, and scientists don’t know why

#218
post #110
post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tweaking the inputs would help one to identify what factor is causing the difference, which allows you to focus on that. It doesn’t mean you permanently leave it out. And it does not make a credibility issue. This is how science works — it is a process that strives to be as accurate as possible, not come up with a static answer and stick to it (that’s what religion does). The ability for science to change and adapt i…

I think you're missing the point. From how I read the parent comment, the problem they see is how scientists are using the data available to them. When you make a hypothesis, you are supposed to validate or invalidate it based on its predictions - not change the predictions to fit the evidence. If you change your model (hypothesis) to fit the facts, your model is merely descriptive of the evidence that is already ava…

Uh, you realise this article is about work in progress, right?

If you want to cast it in the rigid hypothesis testing language (not a very good description of the actual practice), the description is this:

A physically motivated modification to existing tools lead to unexpected results that are not understood yet. As part of figuring out the cause of the new result they are running a series of smaller experiments to test various hypothesis of what aspects of the modifications matters most for the new results.

In effect, objecting to the practice of turning things off and on again is to object to the very notion of doing experiments, which is not very scientific.

Re: Climate models are running red hot, and scientists don’t know why

#219

> Those now attempting to figure out the mystery of the hot climate models think one factor might have caused the recent unusual results: clouds. It turns out simulated clouds often cause headaches for climate modelers. The impact of cloud cover in these models has been incorrect, and has such a large impact. Doesn't this strike anyone as a major problem? We're burning about 100 billion gallons of aviation fuel per y…

So, 500 million metric tons sounds like a lot, doesn't it? But there's the fact that it's getting dumped into an already big system: the atmosphere at large.

Let's check it out it percentage terms. According to wikipedia, the mean mass of water vapor in the air is 1.27 * 10^16 kg. To get the units correct, that aviation contribution is 5 * 10^11 kg. Dividing the latter by the former, we find that the annual commercial aviation water vapor represents 0.004% of the mean mass of water vapor.

That's rounding error.

Re: Climate models are running red hot, and scientists don’t know why

#220

> Those now attempting to figure out the mystery of the hot climate models think one factor might have caused the recent unusual results: clouds. It turns out simulated clouds often cause headaches for climate modelers. The impact of cloud cover in these models has been incorrect, and has such a large impact. Doesn't this strike anyone as a major problem? We're burning about 100 billion gallons of aviation fuel per y…

Rough estimate: There are 1.4 × 10^17 liters of water in atmosphere (https://whyfiles.org/2010/how-much-water-is-in-the-atmospher...).

Your number "about a half a billion metric tons" is 0.5 × 10^12 liters of water, which is 5 orders of magnitude lower number. Or, less than 1/10 000 of atmospheric water.

To say in your words, "If I was quoting this number as a significant contribution, I would be embarassed."

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