I think the way forward for acalability will be multi-chain. Each blockchain has its own accounts and own token but is connected to other chains via fully automated DEXs. The blockchains will form a hierarchy of chains with the most trusted and busiest one at the top. I think there will be a trend to make a consistent payment API so that any cryptocurrency can be used in the place of any other, online shops will use on-chain DEX trade price and volume data to determine which coins they accept and for what value.
Cryptocurrency in the 2020s
211–220 of 278 posts
Re: Cryptocurrency in the 2020s
#212The trouble with this article is that the author doesn't seem to know what Bitcoin is for. Notice the vague treatment of actual cryptocurrency applications. There are lots of predictions about startup activity, "flippenings" and venture capital, but little about the goods and services customers will actually be buying, or what specifically startups will be building. It's this kind of thinking that leads people into t…
I find it hilarious you think Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong doesn't "know what Bitcoin is for." Maybe you don't know what it is for. People that are sane like Mr. Armstrong and Satoshi Nakamoto intended it to be used as a currency. If Satoshi is still alive I'm sure he was quite disappointed when Bitcoin decided to not scale past its blistering 7 transactions per second. "Bitcoin can already scale much larger than tha…
This entire model does not sit comfortably with a permissionless, even anarchic construction like Bitcoin. Partially because it puts you in constant conflict with regulators whose relationship is your business. Secondly because if Bitcoin becomes a major currency in its own right, your role as an onramp is no longer necessary, or at least far more competitive.
And as every other exchange discovered, the real money is in offering a blistering array of coins and taking a percentage on trade between them.
Thus, it might be disappointing to cypherpunks that Coinbase is only a reluctant proponent of Bitcoin, but it's also quite predictable.
Re: Cryptocurrency in the 2020s
#213I was thinking with some friends recently (new year's eve) : considering a bitcoin model with a fixed finite amount of currency, won't every coin be lost at some point due to storage failure/lost keys/etc ? Statistically ? And rather sooner than later, if my thinking is right ? Like the birthday problem ? There is a maximum of 21x10^6 bitcoins, imagining a 0.01 chance of losing 1 bitcoin/day ?
Also it's untested if miners will continue mining after Bitcoin inflation completely stops
Re: Cryptocurrency in the 2020s
#214Earlier quoted context omitted.
>censorship-resistant money It's not, the majority of hash power is in China. That means the Chinese government could start censoring bitcoin transactions in a week if they wanted to - by orphaning non-compliant blocks. Regardless of anything else, this centralization alone makes bitcoin a failed experiment. https://cointelegraph.com/news/study-chinas-btc-miners-contr...
Well, first, "censorship-resistant" doesn't imply "censorship-proof". Second, I don't think we can conclude what would happen if China tried to censor. China certainly has 51% attack capability against Bitcoin, but the only implication that of that which is clear to me is that they could potentially execute double-spends. Using 51% attack capability to orphan transactions is different. With a double spend, there's tw…
Every fork is vulnerable to the same attack, which is why such a switch doesn't make sense. There's no way to prevent Chinese miners from mining on the "Western" bitcoin if it's the more profitable option. The censorship can be easily made reactive: first, all Chinese miners have to register and report their hash power. If the total hash power for any specific network is below X (eg. 65%) they don't have to censor. The moment they do, they start orphaning blocks that don't comply with the Chinese law. Note it also increases their profits!
The same forces (lots of cheap electricity) that resulted in the concentration of sha256 hashing in China also work for any other PoW; switching to a GPU-based PoW would at best only prolong the inevitable. Most likely GPU PoW is also China-dominated.
Proof of work has infinite economies of scale and the winner can take all property. The second property makes it profitable for the majority of hash power to cartelize and exclude others. If the cartel was smartly set by the Chinese government - allowing access to all Chinese miners and making it illegal to create smaller cartels - everyone in China would join and after a while it would be enough to mine with only ~20% of the available hash power. That's a 5x increase in revenue per watt hour!
Why? Initially, Chinese miners can mine with >65% of global power, excluding competitors. They do it until everyone else goes bankrupt, giving them 100%. Then, each individual miner can start mining with only 20% of their total power. To prevent fraud, it's enough to make everyone mine with 100% for one hour every week, all at once, to prove their total individual hash power. If some foolish foreign competitor arrives with more than 20% of the Chinese hash power, every Chinese miner turns everything on. This monopoly would be almost impossible to defeat.
However, even if you assume someone defeats it somehow - the only way to defeat it is to have an even bigger centralized entity! All that happened is a new monopoly, not decentralization.
All of this means bitcoin can never become "refuge from the growing foreign and domestic militarization of money. [..] an indispensable weapon against civil asset forfeiture, international sanctions, deplatforming, and mass surveillance" to any noticeable degree. It's currently left alone only because it's irrelevant except as a speculative toy.
Re: Cryptocurrency in the 2020s
#215I’m pretty new to crypto in general, but it seems to me that the primary value of it in coming years would be anonymity/privacy. As I understand it Bitcoin has some problems in this regard, but others have solved it. I just can’t find it hard to believe we get to 2030 without a way to buy things anonymously online.
Re: Cryptocurrency in the 2020s
#216I’m pretty new to crypto in general, but it seems to me that the primary value of it in coming years would be anonymity/privacy. As I understand it Bitcoin has some problems in this regard, but others have solved it. I just can’t find it hard to believe we get to 2030 without a way to buy things anonymously online.
Cash is anonymous and private.
Re: Cryptocurrency in the 2020s
#217Earlier quoted context omitted.
I find it hilarious you think Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong doesn't "know what Bitcoin is for." Maybe you don't know what it is for. People that are sane like Mr. Armstrong and Satoshi Nakamoto intended it to be used as a currency. If Satoshi is still alive I'm sure he was quite disappointed when Bitcoin decided to not scale past its blistering 7 transactions per second. "Bitcoin can already scale much larger than tha…
It doesn't matter what Satoshi said five years ago, it matters what he would say now, given what we've learned about Bitcoin since. His old opinions are less and less informed each year. Increasing block size utilization has series tradeoffs for decentralization, privacy and reliability. Each year we learn and understand those tradeoffs better. Pro block-size increase people never seem to directly address them though…
It's funny you say that pro block-size increase people don't understand the decentralization, privacy and reliability trade-off, while the people against a block-size increase have never defined or quantified these trade-offs. And very often they also have the notion that "everyone must run a full node" that implies they don't have a good understanding of Bitcoin at all.
Re: Cryptocurrency in the 2020s
#218Earlier quoted context omitted.
> The point of bitcoin is that everyone should have a copy of every transaction (excluding lightning network transactions). Is that the point of bitcoin? Satoshi said: > Long before the network gets anywhere near as large as that, it would be safe for users to use Simplified Payment Verification (section 8) to check for double spending, which only requires having the chain of block headers, or about 12KB per day. Onl…
Except SPV as Satoshi described doesn't work, so the trade-off becomes "can users simply trust miners" to which the answer from experience is a resounding "no".
Re: Cryptocurrency in the 2020s
#219I’m pretty new to crypto in general, but it seems to me that the primary value of it in coming years would be anonymity/privacy. As I understand it Bitcoin has some problems in this regard, but others have solved it. I just can’t find it hard to believe we get to 2030 without a way to buy things anonymously online.
Cash is anonymous and private.
Re: Cryptocurrency in the 2020s
#220"Just like the dot com craze kicked off the idea of an internet startup (and a decade later, just about every tech startup uses the internet in some way), I believe that by the end of the 2020’s almost every tech startup will have some sort of cryptocurrency component." This literally already happened for a hot second, did you not notice the everyone doing their own ICO when bitcoin was 20k? Are you saying it will ha…
[1] https://torrentfreak.com/filesharing-and-vpn-traffic-grow-ex...