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Brexit Deal Fails in Parliament

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Re: Brexit Deal Fails in Parliament

#211
post #196

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What sort of "good deal" do you think May could realistically have extracted from the EU? Everything I've read has implied that the Brexit options ranged from "poor" to "apocalyptically bad".

Is that what they say on TV nowadays? Somehow Britain existed for 2 thousand years without the EU all the way until 1973, and now for it to exist without the EU (and presumably with stronger ties to the US) would be "apocalyptically" bad? This doesn't pass the sniff test, IMO.

I don't watch TV. This is from numerous print sources, but especially The Economist. And you yourself described the failed plan as "as unfavorable a set of exit conditions as possible", so I'm still waiting to hear what a favorable set of exit conditions would have looked like - one that actually stood a chance of getting both UK and EU approval.

Re: Brexit Deal Fails in Parliament

#212

I voted remain but I spend a lot of time with group of people who voted leave. Some of them have realised the leave campaigners basically had no evidence to back up their claims and so feel lied to but, sadly, the others are just angry - and I mean really angry. They want out at all costs because the “EU is telling us what to do”. Revoking article 50 would be a bad idea for civil stability but going through with it s…

> the others are just angry - and I mean really angry. Out of curiosity, how has "EU is telling us what to do" affected these people to make them so angry?

This is a complicated topic, but a short and overly basic version:

There are many people in the UK - as in the US, as in most of the West, actually - for whom neoliberalism has not been kind.

They see immigrants getting jobs and struggle to make ends meet and have been told via various right wing media outlets (in the UK, principally the Daily Mail, Daily Express, Sun, Telegraph and Times newspapers), that there are two causes: uncontrolled freedom of movement in Europe and the political classes that are taking their marching orders from an unelected European Commission.

This view misses out important details. Firstly, it's not accurate in the slightest. It also doesn't reflect the fact the sort of people who are the root cause are the rich globalists who don't pay tax, such as people who own the Daily Mail, Daily Express, Sun, Telegraph and Times newspapers, for example.

However, the view has been built up over entire lifetimes. There are sprinklings of truth about sovereignty (akin to the fact that States have limited powers in the US), inefficiencies in how the European Union does its business (c.f. the Strasbourg/Brussels move and split), and so on.

However the UK gets far more economic benefit than it spends, and the poorest of communities like South Wales have had far more spent on it in targeted social programmes by the EU than has ever been spent by Westminster.

Let me give you a direct example: Lincolnshire is a farming community that had seen declining populations for decades. A large number of farming labour jobs have been filled by people from Europe - particularly Eastern Europe - because they are prepared to do work locals are not, at a price that locals will not consider.

Lincolnshire is a hard Leave area. Boston is IIRC the highest Leave vote in the country. When you ask there people why, one of their favourite anecdotes is the strain the Europeans put on local services.

They sit in an A&E unit waiting hours to be seen, and are surrounded by Eastern Europeans. They think "all these people here are the reason my waiting time is so long, they're using services I pay for! If we got rid of them, I'd have been seen by now!"

The context they are missing is that multiple A&E units in that county were slated for closure. The reason they remain open is because of high demand - from Eastern Europeans.

If we block freedom of movement, they would not be seen quicker. The unit would not exist. It would be closed. But that's not how they see it.

The real culprit as to why waiting times are so high is not because of the Eastern Europeans waiting with them, but because the government has cut funding, because tax receipts are lower than they could be, because certain rich businessmen have lobbied for tax breaks and then told the editors of the papers they own to blame the foreigners...

So there is a huge amount of anger built out of lies and misdirection that will take generations to undo. And they are so convinced of these lies, they are prepared to cause chaos. One of them before the last referendum murdered an MP (a woman called Jo Cox), and that will be but the first of many.

Re: Brexit Deal Fails in Parliament

#213

I'll be the first to admit: I'm an American. I fundamentally do not understand Brexit. I understand the following timeline: 1. A largely disseminated, nation-wide vote occurs, bolstered by nationalist sentiment, that the EU is bad for the UK. This vote results in a conclusion that UK should leave the EU. 2. This is controversial, due to the majority of the populace in general not desiring to leave the EU, but not vot…

> What's preventing the referendum from being declared stupid and that the UK gov't is not going to do it?

Nothing except politics. The referendum is advisory and not legally binding. The Leave campaign has been found guilty of criminal offences. But actually, the referendum result is the closest thing May has to a mandate, her party won a minority in the parliamentary elections.

Re: Brexit Deal Fails in Parliament

#214
post #160
post #117

I loved the comparison to a submarine made of cheese: https://twitter.com/hugorifkind/status/1072222230791229440?l...

>Theresa May was initially against building a submarine out of cheese, obviously. Because it’s a completely insane thing to do. Leaving the EU is not a completely insane thing to do. The UK (and many other countries) have legitimate grievances about some things the EU is foisting on them (immigration for example) and the EU is giving them the cold shoulder and fining them if they don't comply. Labelling people who ar…

[flagged]

Re: Brexit Deal Fails in Parliament

#215

I'll be the first to admit: I'm an American. I fundamentally do not understand Brexit. I understand the following timeline: 1. A largely disseminated, nation-wide vote occurs, bolstered by nationalist sentiment, that the EU is bad for the UK. This vote results in a conclusion that UK should leave the EU. 2. This is controversial, due to the majority of the populace in general not desiring to leave the EU, but not vot…

For many Pro-Brexit people they felt May's deal didn't really leave the EU. A very major sticking point is that provisions in the exit agreement, refereed to as the "backstop", that in theory and possibly in practice could legally trap the UK in a half completed transition deal forever with the UK always subject to EU rules. Overall the agreement May put forward is basically an agreement to start the next phase of negotiations to start discussions on a transition agreement which would maybe hopefully be finished by the year 2020 or 2021 or a day after never. Also paying 39 billion pounds and not knowing what the next phase of negotiations would deliver.

For Remainers(Anti-Brexit) the agreement was to start the process to leave the EU so of course those people didn't like the agreement either.

Re: Brexit Deal Fails in Parliament

#216
post #196

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What sort of "good deal" do you think May could realistically have extracted from the EU? Everything I've read has implied that the Brexit options ranged from "poor" to "apocalyptically bad".

Is that what they say on TV nowadays? Somehow Britain existed for 2 thousand years without the EU all the way until 1973, and now for it to exist without the EU (and presumably with stronger ties to the US) would be "apocalyptically" bad? This doesn't pass the sniff test, IMO.

blah blah blah, go away russian troll.

Re: Brexit Deal Fails in Parliament

#217
post #161

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Literally yes. Some elections right here in the US are decided by as few as a dozen votes, and people accept the results. > You just called some referendums "bullshit" You're putting words in my mouth Cathy Newman style here.

> Some elections right here in the US are decided by as few as a dozen votes This is a basic "false equivalence" logical fallacy.

I don't see any fallacy. I'm sure some elections in the UK are decided by a few votes as well, and they too are accepted. Why should a referendum be any different. The definition of a majority is 50% + 1 vote all over the world. The definition of majority vote is that majority decides the vote. And in this case nearly 1.3 _million_ more people voted to leave than to stay, not a few dozen.

Re: Brexit Deal Fails in Parliament

#218
post #160
post #117

I loved the comparison to a submarine made of cheese: https://twitter.com/hugorifkind/status/1072222230791229440?l...

>Theresa May was initially against building a submarine out of cheese, obviously. Because it’s a completely insane thing to do. Leaving the EU is not a completely insane thing to do. The UK (and many other countries) have legitimate grievances about some things the EU is foisting on them (immigration for example) and the EU is giving them the cold shoulder and fining them if they don't comply. Labelling people who ar…

Giving them the cold shoulder and fining them?

What?

Re: Brexit Deal Fails in Parliament

#219
post #160
post #117

I loved the comparison to a submarine made of cheese: https://twitter.com/hugorifkind/status/1072222230791229440?l...

>Theresa May was initially against building a submarine out of cheese, obviously. Because it’s a completely insane thing to do. Leaving the EU is not a completely insane thing to do. The UK (and many other countries) have legitimate grievances about some things the EU is foisting on them (immigration for example) and the EU is giving them the cold shoulder and fining them if they don't comply. Labelling people who ar…

The EU never set immigration policy for the UK. The UK never enforced any of the restrictions on freedom of movement it could have.

Re: Brexit Deal Fails in Parliament

#220
post #41

The Brexit promise is something nobody can deliver on. It was a lie, you cannot force the EU to accept an unfavorable trade deal. If only for the reason that it would set an exceptionally bad precedent and everybody would want their own deal, to pick and choose the parts of EU membership that are favorable to them, leading the EU to implode. Somebody needs to own up to that lie and accept that a "no deal" outcome, wh…

A no deal is better than a bad deal.
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