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Tesla meets self-imposed deadline for Model 3, rolls out 5000 cars in a week

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Re: Tesla meets self-imposed deadline for Model 3, rolls out 5000 cars in a week

#211

Post by philipodonnell »

anoncoward111 wrote: post #120
philipodonnell wrote: post #54

> with the final car rolling off the assembly line on Sunday morning, several hours after the midnight goal set by Chief Executive Elon Musk No, they missed the deadline, twice now. Lot of Muskites in these comments, remember, Tesla failed to meet the same deadline in January and pushed it to June. (EDIT: I've been told they missed this 3 times now, the 5K/wk figure was originally Dec '17, then Jan '18 then Jun '18).…

Oh my god, come on. I'm a Tesla bear , and I don't really see a massive different between a rate of 4,850 cars and 5,000 cars....

If it wasn't that big of a deal, they would have hit the target before 5am the day after they were supposed to.

Re: Tesla meets self-imposed deadline for Model 3, rolls out 5000 cars in a week

#212

Post by Someone1234 »

Robotbeat wrote: post #174
Someone1234 wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> the 5000 deadline was arbitrary anyway. Wasn't it in multiple letters to shareholders? It is literally an update to debtors on the company's position, far from arbitrary. Were Tesla required to give an estimate? Nope. But doing so may be used to attract further investment into the company, so it is far from innocent.

Shareholders aren't debtors. It's still arbitrary, a goal they set for themselves.

SEC likely wouldn't agree, and haven't agreed historically.

Re: Tesla meets self-imposed deadline for Model 3, rolls out 5000 cars in a week

#213

Post by philipodonnell »

manicdee wrote: post #156
Maro wrote: post #141

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> When it was clear they would miss again, they put up a third production line in a canvas tent, which the NYT quoted as "never heard anything like this ever" using what Musk tweeted as "scrap we had in warehouses" to build the cars. I'm a software guy. Can somebody explain to me how you can build a high-tech auto production line from "scrap"?

You can't. GP is completely misrepresenting everything about this situation: not a tent, not canvas, not scrap. Musk's tweet about scrap in a tent was very clearly a joke.

I can't link NYT because I get the paper version and lost my login, but I'm quoting from the paper in front of me:

> A tent, about 50 feet high, its taut grey canvas membrane supported by aluminum columns.

I don't think it was a joke. The tweet was specifically in the context of trying to convince investors that the cost of that tent production wasn't substantial and by "scrap" he meant equipment they had discarded from their main production lines because they are constantly upgrading them. You can't have it both ways. It was either discarded "scrap" machines they had lying around and he was not joking or machines they bought and he was lying (a.k.a "joking") about it. I'm giving him the benefit of the doubt that they really had all that equipment in a warehouse because its been reported they have re-tooled the line several times.

Re: Tesla meets self-imposed deadline for Model 3, rolls out 5000 cars in a week

#214

Post by matt-snider »

jjeaff wrote: post #164
austenallred wrote: post #127

Earlier quoted context omitted.

OK, sure, but call it 4850 of 5000 when everyone says there wasn't a prayer of making it is pretty remarkable. Call it 97% of the way. The fact that they built out a tent and hustled 24/7 to hit the goal is impressive to me. Overall it's pretty classic Tesla/Musk. Predict the absolutely impossible, get 97% of the way there, and regardless of how you slice it the only thing that's not impressive is the facxt that they…

>I see Teslas everywhere now. Meaning you live in one of 4 coastal cities. Teslas are exceedingly rare everywhere but the wealthiest cities.

I saw dozens of them on a recent trip to Paris. They were mostly taxis

Re: Tesla meets self-imposed deadline for Model 3, rolls out 5000 cars in a week

#215

Post by whateveracct »

csomar wrote: post #138
panarky wrote: post #103

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Imagine that today is July 1, 2020. Looking back I see three scenarios. 1) It's clear now that the company is a sham and Musk is a snake-oil salesman. It's all smoke, mirrors, bubblegum and baling wire. After hitting 5000 cars per week one time, they never reached that level again. The company had to do a punishingly dilutive capital raise just to get 6 months more runway, and the company's market cap is now $6 billi…

> I assign probabilities of 10%, 50% and 40% to these scenarios Well, the devil is in the details. Where did these numbers come from?

Rear end

Re: Tesla meets self-imposed deadline for Model 3, rolls out 5000 cars in a week

#216

Post by saas_co_de »

woodandsteel wrote: post #158

You know, it is really interesting watching the Musk haters over the years. The more he succeeds in doing what he promised (albeit usually behind schedule), the more they hate him, and the more convinced they become that his present projects will all turn out to be complete failures. It almost makes you think they have some ulterior motive, like they work for the fossil fuel industry, of one of the other rocket launc…

yeah, when he crashes and burns it will burn 100 billion dollars and the credibility of the whole tech industry (like Theranos but 100X).

There will be a nuclear winter in tech investment after that which sets back legitimate companies with real innovation by years with lasting damage to the global economy.

Same story as Uber and why people "hated" on them before the adults cleaned things up (as best as possible).

These con artists are shitting in the water for everyone else which has direct financial impact. Not hate, just money.

Re: Tesla meets self-imposed deadline for Model 3, rolls out 5000 cars in a week

#217

Post by philipodonnell »

panarky wrote: post #103
philipodonnell wrote: post #54

> with the final car rolling off the assembly line on Sunday morning, several hours after the midnight goal set by Chief Executive Elon Musk No, they missed the deadline, twice now. Lot of Muskites in these comments, remember, Tesla failed to meet the same deadline in January and pushed it to June. (EDIT: I've been told they missed this 3 times now, the 5K/wk figure was originally Dec '17, then Jan '18 then Jun '18).…

Imagine that today is July 1, 2020. Looking back I see three scenarios. 1) It's clear now that the company is a sham and Musk is a snake-oil salesman. It's all smoke, mirrors, bubblegum and baling wire. After hitting 5000 cars per week one time, they never reached that level again. The company had to do a punishingly dilutive capital raise just to get 6 months more runway, and the company's market cap is now $6 billi…

Not to be rude, but these scenarios and percentages are all really random as is your valuation. Its far more likely they continue to do the same thing they have for the last year or two: limp through their slowly escalating production targets until the Model 3 is just one of several electric sedans available and there is no way to justify their multiples.

Re: Tesla meets self-imposed deadline for Model 3, rolls out 5000 cars in a week

#218

Post by antpls »

philipodonnell wrote: post #54

> with the final car rolling off the assembly line on Sunday morning, several hours after the midnight goal set by Chief Executive Elon Musk No, they missed the deadline, twice now. Lot of Muskites in these comments, remember, Tesla failed to meet the same deadline in January and pushed it to June. (EDIT: I've been told they missed this 3 times now, the 5K/wk figure was originally Dec '17, then Jan '18 then Jun '18).…

If you look at SpaceX launch schedules, many are delayed for several weeks/months. Yet it has a better public image than Tesla. I think missing deadline isnt that unexpected, it happens in many projects. If the goal is still achieved at a reasonable time after the deadline, it is still a success imho. It means the project is now a reality, and that's awesome.

Re: Tesla meets self-imposed deadline for Model 3, rolls out 5000 cars in a week

#219

Post by GW150914 »

antpls wrote: post #218
philipodonnell wrote: post #54

> with the final car rolling off the assembly line on Sunday morning, several hours after the midnight goal set by Chief Executive Elon Musk No, they missed the deadline, twice now. Lot of Muskites in these comments, remember, Tesla failed to meet the same deadline in January and pushed it to June. (EDIT: I've been told they missed this 3 times now, the 5K/wk figure was originally Dec '17, then Jan '18 then Jun '18).…

If you look at SpaceX launch schedules, many are delayed for several weeks/months. Yet it has a better public image than Tesla. I think missing deadline isnt that unexpected, it happens in many projects. If the goal is still achieved at a reasonable time after the deadline, it is still a success imho. It means the project is now a reality, and that's awesome.

Missing a launch in rocketry is a normal and expected part of life in the industry, and no matter who is launching it happens. Missing targets for producing a car isn’t. This is what people mean when they say “comparing apples and oranges.”

Re: Tesla meets self-imposed deadline for Model 3, rolls out 5000 cars in a week

#220

Post by GW150914 »

matt-snider wrote: post #214
jjeaff wrote: post #164

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>I see Teslas everywhere now. Meaning you live in one of 4 coastal cities. Teslas are exceedingly rare everywhere but the wealthiest cities.

I saw dozens of them on a recent trip to Paris. They were mostly taxis

Teslas are exceedingly rare everywhere but the wealthiest cities.

...recent trip to Paris.

Yeah... a notably wealthy city.

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