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Apple Will 'Watch Everything Burn' When the AI Bubble Bursts

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Re: Apple Will 'Watch Everything Burn' When the AI Bubble Bursts

#201

Post by ChrisMarshallNY »

dan_gee wrote: post #157
bensyverson wrote: post #134

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Same, though the types of jobs I’m working on now require the speed I get from LLMs. If I had to take my current projects and switch to hand-coding I’d have to extend the timelines and practically add a zero to the price.

If you don't mind sharing, what types of jobs are you working on now? I haven't personally seen a speed boost from LLMs, but my experience with them suggests that they could be effective in some domains and inadequate in others. E.G., I have observed that LLM tools are inadequate for generating C++ code.

I’m writing Swift (native iOS apps), with PHP backends.

I have found it does good PHP code, and Swift code that definitely needs adult supervision.

Also, very good for things like code documentation, debugging, and writing copy for things.

Re: Apple Will 'Watch Everything Burn' When the AI Bubble Bursts

#202

Post by blks »

throwaway63467 wrote: post #106
cmiles8 wrote: post #78

Apple looks better and better as every day passes. Other players going deeply into debt to build out massive infrastructure, VCs pumping up the model ecosystem that is now a total commodity. Apple’s just been sitting there with solid cashflow waiting for all this to implode and then have on-device models with their own chips. Apple will own the end device while the rest of the world is fighting over a pure commodity.…

Isn’t Apple potentially under a lot of pressure due to the DRAM prices as well as having to compete with AI for fab capacity? Before all the price hikes their products were already priced at the top of the market so I would assume that memory getting more expensive will impact their sales or margin quite a bit as they can’t subsidize hardware like AI companies do (they can of course eat into their own margins a bit w…

They are, for now; but also Apple is known for making long term price locked contracts and ensuring availability of semiconductors for their devices.

Re: Apple Will 'Watch Everything Burn' When the AI Bubble Bursts

#203

Post by kpennell »

bananamogul wrote: post #2

I don't know if Ed Zitron is right about allhis analysis, but it's nice to have an alternative, well-argued narrative to the gushing torrent of AI company propaganda.

Cal Newport is another great person to follow on this and I think he understands the CS fundamentals much better.

Re: Apple Will 'Watch Everything Burn' When the AI Bubble Bursts

#204

Post by sodapopcan »

LogicFailsMe wrote: post #193
sodapopcan wrote: post #147

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> But in a world where AI is a fad like cabbage patch kids and beanie babies AI will almost certainly not be a fad for software developers, or at the very least for web developers, but it's certainly possible that other industries will look back on "experimental AI days" and chuckle. Even if there is a financial bubble (that pops), the technology is still not going away. As for what's next, I dunno. I've heard people…

The possibility of AI sticking around is apparently pretty threatening to the Zitron cult or what seemed like an innocuous response wouldn't be in such negative territory so quickly. But I think AI is here to stay and it has already proven useful. And sure, we will look back on today's models like we look back upon Gordon Gekko and his giant early cell phone. And I cannot fathom how one can not separate AI the scienc…

> But I think AI is here to stay and it has already proven useful.

Yes, I said as much. I've said this is two other places in this thread, but when they are talking AI being useful, they aren't just talking about for software development. The software industry is seeing far more AI adoption, by a very large margin, than any other industry, and the success of the current companies hinges on it being heavily adopted everywhere. I don't really care to defend Zitron because he does speak out of his lane far too much, especially when it comes to software, and those are the points the HN crowd latches onto. But that's not the bulk of what he talks about.

Re: Apple Will 'Watch Everything Burn' When the AI Bubble Bursts

#205

Post by sodapopcan »

tptacek wrote: post #195
sodapopcan wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ya, there are already three pure ad hominem comments here with no examples. Zitron isn't even anti-AI per se. He clearly talks out his ass at times (like AI doesn't work for developers... which he's not saying so much anymore, I don't think) but his main talking points are around numbers and profitability.

I'd be interested in the schematics of where you think the "ad hominems" are in my comment.

You were just attacking his character without backing it up? Do I not know what an ad hominem is? If that's the case, then that's embarrassing for me. Unless you're saying that your remark doesn't technically bash his character?

Re: Apple Will 'Watch Everything Burn' When the AI Bubble Bursts

#206

Post by twister2920 »

solenoid0937 wrote: post #90
twister2920 wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> There is a reason this man doesn't heavily short the same companies he criticizes yes, because in order to take a short position you have to predict exactly when the bubble is going to pop, which is different from predicting that at some point it will

> you have to predict exactly when the bubble is going to pop Not true.

please elaborate, I love learning new things

Re: Apple Will 'Watch Everything Burn' When the AI Bubble Bursts

#207

Post by sd2ff »

ghaff wrote: post #59
59percentmore wrote: post #27

His read on the Apple Vision Pro (both the circumstances of its creation and its path forward) are incorrect in quite the discouraging manner for me. AVP wasn't released early (late, if anything), and it wasn't a dud because of Tim Cook's disinterest. I also think it's irresponsible to not broach the obvious implication of "PC components becoming prohibitively expensive" + "untold amounts of compute sitting in comput…

Tim Cook was probably mostly disinterested because it didn't seem like a real business opportunity. Wherever AVP fell on the VR/AR spectrum, VR (while having other opportunities) was mostly a niche for high-end gamers and AR, whatever the possibilities in some future idealized form with fashionable glasses that give you lots of information about what/who you're looking at is a long way from reality.

It was released to appease investors.

Ultimately as a manager you are held accountable to your investors and the cost-benefit analysis is such that it was the right action to take.

Re: Apple Will 'Watch Everything Burn' When the AI Bubble Bursts

#208

Post by rbanffy »

I kind of look forward to Oracle's demise. Maybe they sell the remains of Solaris and SPARC to someone who'll make something useful out of that IP, maybe even a nice product.

I sincerely hope, when all this madness ends, there will be enough data centre surplus gear we'll all be able to soup up our homelabs.

Re: Apple Will 'Watch Everything Burn' When the AI Bubble Bursts

#209

Post by sd2ff »

satvikpendem wrote: post #140
ChrisMarshallNY wrote: post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm of the opinion that the market will need to expand, horizontally. That's what's happening, with low-cost LLMs. I already know lots of "regular folks" that are totally hooked on LLMs (mostly ChatGPT, at the "regular mensch" level). They usually use the free tier, but a lot of them are doing the $20/month Pro tier. If anyone is in my age group, they remember when ATMs were free. It was the "heroin dealer" business…

LLMs are rapidly becoming commodities with open weight and Chinese models. Frontier providers won't be able to raise prices forever, indeed we already see evidence of decreased prices from such competition. And ATMs can be free still, if you use a bank that refunds all worldwide ATM fees, such as Charles Schwab.

The commodity is not in the LLM but the tokens.

Anthropic's offerings are vertically differentiated. However from an economical stand point, it also be true that they are not the preferred option for many.

Re: Apple Will 'Watch Everything Burn' When the AI Bubble Bursts

#210

Post by tptacek »

sodapopcan wrote: post #205
tptacek wrote: post #195

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'd be interested in the schematics of where you think the "ad hominems" are in my comment.

You were just attacking his character without backing it up? Do I not know what an ad hominem is? If that's the case, then that's embarrassing for me. Unless you're saying that your remark doesn't technically bash his character?

Yeah, you're off on what an ad hominem is. I would dispute that I attacked his character at all, but that doesn't matter: an ad hominem isn't an "attack on character", it's an argument that is predicated on an unrelated character attack.

My argument here is just that Zitron says things that are wrong all the time.

You could fairly rebut me by saying I didn't substantiate that argument. That's true! That doesn't make the argument fallacious; it just means it isn't facially dispositive.

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