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The Strongest El Niño Ever

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Re: The Strongest El Niño Ever

#201

Post by mancerayder »

jordanb wrote: post #173
puttycat wrote: post #154

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The thing is that both sides have a point. European countries (notably France) have known for at least 30 years that this was coming, but was ideologically insisting not to install proper AC or even ventilation in public spaces and transport. This does not contradict the wider angle about Americans ignoring climate change.

> ideologically insisting not to install proper AC or even ventilation This is not supported by facts. People won't spend money on equipment they don't need. Most places in France do not need air conditioning (or did not need it). It makes no sense that a building owner or transit agency would spend limited funds on something that they do not need. One may argue that the government of France should have imposed some…

It's not just that France isn't installing them. It's that laws prevent installing them, and laws keep offices and schools warm on purpose.

The prevention comes to play with massive restrictions around visibility of the units on facades in order to preserve character of apartment buildings and beauty. In some cases these can apply to private homes, too. Additionally you have the copropriété, where you need the majority of the building to grant you the right to install AC. The cities have rigid enforcement of all these and can mandate clawbacks and of course fines. And we didn't get into what you're even allowed to install - the things installed in the US won't cut it.

Offices and schools. Laws don't mandate AC, but they prevent it from being put too strong. 27C, I believe is as cold as you're going to get.

French people have a sort of cultural revulsion to AC - forget climate change and American influence, it'll make you sick and you'll hurting your health.

Just stating the facts, not defending the US. The US has a religious opposition to climate change actions as strong as the French religious opposition to AC.

And for older people, France sucks. For younger people, arguably the whole situation really sucks.

Re: The Strongest El Niño Ever

#202

Post by CoastalCoder »

bcoughlan wrote: post #140
yostrovs wrote: post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It would be one thing if Europe immediately stopped using coal, drastically reduced airline usage, quit building gasoline cars, but if anything it is only marginally better than the US. Europe mostly shifted their dirty work to Asia and North America, while restricting themselves from using air conditioning as some kind of virtue signaling. That's the problem as I see it.

There's a lot to criticise of every country, but we're trying. The US is not trying (*) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paris_Agreement#/media/File:Pa... * Not aimed at all the wonderful, sane and reasonable people of the USA.

> There's a lot to criticise of every country, but we're trying. The US is not trying (*)

I'd argue that it's a bit misleading to treat the US as a single entity for this topic.

The population is deeply divided on issues like this one.

Re: The Strongest El Niño Ever

#203

Post by inigyou »

CGMthrowaway wrote: post #103
inigyou wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

DC water consumption is a red herring. That water is returned back to its source but warmer.

Yes, just like cow farts.

Cow burps are a significant contributor to global warming, like 10%. There are just so many damn cows and their digestive systems produce methane.

Re: The Strongest El Niño Ever

#204

Post by saltcured »

SubiculumCode wrote: post #15

Does this mean California is more likely to get mega flooding?

Not necessarily... it isn't as straightforward as "stronger El Niño means more rain".

The steering of the jet stream seems to have some qualitative changes in these conditions but also more chaos. It could steer storms anywhere along the coast, so different parts of CA, OR, and WA get different impact. Just in my lifetime in CA, I've witnessed some very wet El Niño winters but also some drier than average.

The biggest precipitation threat on the west coast seems to be a repeat of some of the biggest flooding events known historically or geologically. But, these are relatively infrequent and most of the record predates any understanding or tracking of the El Niño oscillation. So the correlation cannot be stated so clearly. These are atmospheric river events which seem to stall, producing heavy rains over the same area for a much longer period.

Just in the recent centuries of CA history, there have been massive floods in northern and southern regions in different month-long rain events. There have been improvements to flood control infrastructure since then. But, the only reason those events aren't known as the most costly is because there wasn't as much economic development here back when the floods happened.

Our usual storms sweep through an area the heaviest rains over just part of a day. Our varied terrain means that each individual storm also has very uneven rainfall amounts due to orographic intensification. Prominences with the right aspect towards the wind will get far more accumulation. Our watersheds can absorb quite a bit of this, but even those brief rains can cause localized flooding.

If the rain continues for many days in a row, we will see widespread mudslides and flooding of larger rivers, basins, etc. Some of the historically extreme events had rain persisting for over a month!

Edit: along with these "mega storm" scenarios, we also have evidence of "mega droughts". It's worrisome to imagine what challenges may come from a more energetic and chaotic climate.

Re: The Strongest El Niño Ever

#205

Post by akamaka »

CGMthrowaway wrote: post #98
jonwinstanley wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well, we can see it coming, but we are doing very little about

We are doing a lot. Almost 90% of electricity capacity added last year was renewables. Nearly 1 in 3 cars sold are now EVs. The world is spending over $2 trillion every year on low‑carbon energy investment. Solar and wind have already avoided more than 2 gigatons of C02 being added to the atmosphere. In the US, the IRA will drop emissions 40% to below 2005 levels. What do you mean we are doing very little?

I’ve had the same discussion with many people, and when I tell them how much work is done on cleaning up carbon emissions, the reply is always “well… it’s not enough”. And of course, they don’t have a sense of what is “enough”.

They don’t really understand it in a factual, measurable way, but just are interesting in what the overall story is, and what it says about humanity failing.

Re: The Strongest El Niño Ever

#206

Post by simmerup »

tjwebbnorfolk wrote: post #125
simmerup wrote: post #117

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And it varies in intensity because human activity is putting more energy into the system

It varies in intensity because it always has.

If it’s always varied in intensity, why are the ten hottest years on record all after 2015?

Surely we’d see random hot years all over the map.

Re: The Strongest El Niño Ever

#207

Post by xyzsparetimexyz »

aaronbrethorst wrote: post #4

The buried lede: What does all this mean for global temperatures? Because global temperature lags ENSO by around three to five months, most of this event’s warming will land in 2027, which is now shaping up to be a genuinely alarming year and the warmest on record by a sizable margin I’m certainly no climate scientist, but if I lived in Europe, I would absolutely be looking into how to get a solar energy system set u…

[flagged]

Re: The Strongest El Niño Ever

#208

Post by windexh8er »

dredmorbius wrote: post #100
windexh8er wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you think that every data center is now a closed loop system enjoy your propaganda. Colossus 1 and 2 still use open loop systems. And with the case of blow down water that's "returned" it's not usable due to the use of concentrated salts (1,200 to 6,000 mg/L). In your mind this is a closed loop system of clean water. It is not. And as DCs have less and less discharge there is more and more solid waste produced. Yo…

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48055532 >

Unfounded comments that are nothing but a lie are OK. Yet, calling it out directly goes against the rules.

In this case the response is warranted. Until people start to see what actually goes on in these data centers with respect to pollution (of many kinds) I don't have a problem being direct.

Re: The Strongest El Niño Ever

#209

Post by simmerup »

zuzululu wrote: post #149
simmerup wrote: post #114

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Like an alcoholic saying drinking isn’t bad because he’s been drinking since his twenties and still hasn’t got cirrhosis By the time it’s an issue it’s too late.

thats a silly take, this is totally different from some pending apocalypse that is repeatedly pushed back when it doesn't happen.

I don’t think it is, and I don’t think it’s repeatedly pushed back

I just think the science is still being worked out.

But the world is getting hotter, and the scientists know it’s not good for us when the earth heats past a certain point.

But we’re still burning that fuel regardless.

Re: The Strongest El Niño Ever

#210

Post by xyzsparetimexyz »

cogman10 wrote: post #18
inigyou wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And by a sizable margin they mean maybe 4 degrees Celsius. Remember that 1.5 degrees Celsius is a nearly end-of-the-world scenario and we're currently about 1.1 degrees. All that warming that we caused but didn't actually happen? Turns out the ocean saves it up.

> Remember that 1.5 degrees Celsius is a nearly end-of-the-world scenario No, it's not end of the world. 3C is where things start getting bad. 1.5C is the target for the 2015 Paris climate agreement to try and avoid hitting 2C. We are looking at more severe droughts, flash floods, and rising oceans where we are at, but not the worst of it like mass 40C wet bulb heat domes which wipe out all life underneath them.

Bad? Things are already fucking bad.
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