201–210 of 446 posts
Earlier quoted context omitted.
You miss the fact that many adversaries will not act rationally.
Especially when they're optimizing for afterlife.
Lots of smugness about the supposed irrationality of the adversaries considering that backdrop.
I spent some time reconstructing the current US missile defense interceptor numbers. This was done from open source DoD data, CSIS P-21 procurement exhibits, and CRS reports, that are are in depth, non partisan, objective policy analyses written by experts at the Congressional Research Service (CRS) specifically for U.S. Congress members. Also used Lockheed/RTX financial disclosures. The numbers are pretty bad… Way w…
Two more sobering axes to introduce: cost and manufacturing capability. Numbers are hard to find for obvious security reasons, but using the numbers most optimistic to the defender[0] suggests an adversary using a Fatah type hypersonic is spending 1/3rd the cost of an Arrow interceptor, and is launching missiles that are produced at a much faster rate. Interception is deeply asymmetric in favor of the attacker. [0] h…
Calling a Fattah hypersonic is a misleading claim. It is simply a ballistic missile that reaches hypersonic speeds, which is different from a true hypersonic weapon in its flight path and ability to maneuver. This distinction is important because it makes it significantly easier to shoot down than something like a hypersonic glide vehicle or hypersonic cruise missile. But I agree with your point that it does remain d…
Why does a ground based interceptor cost $75M? High idiot index?
These things are closing at like mach 20. Physics says that's hard to do. That means it's expensive.
For reference, $75 million is in the realm of a Falcon 9 launch, which is a very cost optimized platform that doesn't have to place a very very precision instrument payload in a very very specific point in space to prepare it for a high energy, extremely difficult interception.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
There is an assumption here that the value in improving defenses is the same as improving offensive weapons. That is not the case in the assymetry that drones provide and Russia is the first example. Russia has not been able to improve AA capabilities to the point where it's "safe", for any definition of the word, neither has Israel. Israel and Gulf states often tout over 90% interception rate yet it's really at the…
> interception rate yet it's really at the mercy of Iran to not target their most vulnerable sites And what this site and you don't account for, is Iranian rather low missile accuracy. If Israel was at the mercy of Iranian attacks, Iran could have simply struck Israeli airbases to the point they cannot be used, and then stop any Israeli attacks on its territory. It's pretty obvious they don't have the capabilities of…
Why does a ground based interceptor cost $75M? High idiot index?
In what world would a specialized, niche, high precision, high readiness rocket meant to loft a very advanced interceptor munition into an extremely high velocity interception ever be cheap? These things are closing at like mach 20. Physics says that's hard to do. That means it's expensive. For reference, $75 million is in the realm of a Falcon 9 launch, which is a very cost optimized platform that doesn't have to pl…
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Technically Iran fires SRBMs and MRBMs not ICBMs. They intentionally gimp their missiles to avoid advertising ICBM range as a way of placating Europe.
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Earlier quoted context omitted.
In what world would a specialized, niche, high precision, high readiness rocket meant to loft a very advanced interceptor munition into an extremely high velocity interception ever be cheap? These things are closing at like mach 20. Physics says that's hard to do. That means it's expensive. For reference, $75 million is in the realm of a Falcon 9 launch, which is a very cost optimized platform that doesn't have to pl…
Does it being very high precision or whatever mean that it must cost $75M per unit? Is it made of gold?
Earlier quoted context omitted.
There is an assumption here that the value in improving defenses is the same as improving offensive weapons. That is not the case in the assymetry that drones provide and Russia is the first example. Russia has not been able to improve AA capabilities to the point where it's "safe", for any definition of the word, neither has Israel. Israel and Gulf states often tout over 90% interception rate yet it's really at the…
> interception rate yet it's really at the mercy of Iran to not target their most vulnerable sites And what this site and you don't account for, is Iranian rather low missile accuracy. If Israel was at the mercy of Iranian attacks, Iran could have simply struck Israeli airbases to the point they cannot be used, and then stop any Israeli attacks on its territory. It's pretty obvious they don't have the capabilities of…
I spent some time reconstructing the current US missile defense interceptor numbers. This was done from open source DoD data, CSIS P-21 procurement exhibits, and CRS reports, that are are in depth, non partisan, objective policy analyses written by experts at the Congressional Research Service (CRS) specifically for U.S. Congress members. Also used Lockheed/RTX financial disclosures. The numbers are pretty bad… Way w…
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