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Missile defense is NP-complete
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Re: Missile defense is NP-complete
#12Add multiple decoys and the missile math tends to become an argument for the importance of preemption. Han shot first for a good reason.
Preemption is a propaganda lie.
Re: Missile defense is NP-complete
#13Re: Missile defense is NP-complete
#14The author explains that this problem is actually adversarial, in the sense that the attacker gets to observe defenses and allocate warheads and decoys accordingly. Thinking of our current circumstances, this suggests another cost of war: our offensive capabilities, as well as our defensive capabilities become more observable. Our adversaries are studying our strengths and weaknesses in Iran, and they will have a muc…
If we really want to put a certain hat on we can also say those adversaries have an incentive to not prevent (or even incentivize) those wars for that same reason. Even if that's by helping along a guy that is easy to manipulate through a childlike ego become president.
Re: Missile defense is NP-complete
#15Re: Missile defense is NP-complete
#16Two more sobering axes to introduce: cost and manufacturing capability.
Numbers are hard to find for obvious security reasons, but using the numbers most optimistic to the defender[0] suggests an adversary using a Fatah type hypersonic is spending 1/3rd the cost of an Arrow interceptor, and is launching missiles that are produced at a much faster rate. Interception is deeply asymmetric in favor of the attacker.
[0] https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/defense-news/article-82314...
Re: Missile defense is NP-complete
#17Would be interesting to know how the probabilities change once all your X band radars are destroyed. And then again how they change when all your L band radars are destroyed...
> And then again how they change when all your L band radars are destroyed...
Connection reset by Yugoslavs with microwave ovens
Re: Missile defense is NP-complete
#18The author explains that this problem is actually adversarial, in the sense that the attacker gets to observe defenses and allocate warheads and decoys accordingly. Thinking of our current circumstances, this suggests another cost of war: our offensive capabilities, as well as our defensive capabilities become more observable. Our adversaries are studying our strengths and weaknesses in Iran, and they will have a muc…
there is a benefit as well, though, as it makes your threats credible.
Re: Missile defense is NP-complete
#19Add multiple decoys and the missile math tends to become an argument for the importance of preemption. Han shot first for a good reason.
[deleted]
Re: Missile defense is NP-complete
#20The author explains that this problem is actually adversarial, in the sense that the attacker gets to observe defenses and allocate warheads and decoys accordingly. Thinking of our current circumstances, this suggests another cost of war: our offensive capabilities, as well as our defensive capabilities become more observable. Our adversaries are studying our strengths and weaknesses in Iran, and they will have a muc…
Or perhaps they will learn they are outmatched, lack the resources and technological capabilities to compete, and deterrence will have been established.