Live data from Hacker News

Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

wsj.com

201–210 of 777 posts

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#201

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why?

ROTH contributions grow tax-free. Doing your conversions now allows you to buy equities are they're currently discounted prices, maximizing your potential long-term tax-free gains.

Especially if you hit the RMD threshold in retirement. Even more important is how RMDs affect Medicare premiums(1). The best advice I have is to avoid RMDs as much as possible since they can/will affect other parts of your retirement strategy. Thus, converting to ROTH today may save you lots of cash in the future.

(1) https://www.fedsmith.com/2024/10/23/rmds-are-silently-increa...

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#202
post #10

You know the craziest thing about watching this as an outsider in Canada is that we as a nation are losing one reliable trading partner (and obviously losing an ally but that's another conversation). Germany - losing a trade partner. Japan? And so on. But the US has lost 180 reliable trading partners. You're already seeing in the first week burgeoning trade alliances between nations who wouldn't have cooperated befor…

Sometimes your best mates go a bit mad. Cut them some slack.

They will need a shoulder to cry on when they re-discover how well a trade war works out. The last ones seem to have happened at roughly 50 year intervals.

The US seems to be incapable of learning from the past. The worrying thing is that Mr Trump is old enough to remember directly or what his parents told him about the last fucked up trade shit storm or trade war.

You do not get to dictate how the world as a whole works ... ever. It has its own ideas about that.

Even Britain at its most imperious could not do that and the US can't even stop itself from trying to impose tariffs on its own air base in .io!

The best we can do from outside is to hope that the US does not collapse completely and that the downward trend stops at some point. If, somehow this all pans out that we will all benefit or even that just the US benefits then fine. Let's pick up the pieces and crack on.

I do not hate Americans nor their rather odd President. We are seeing change happening. It might be for the good eventually but I doubt it but I'm not an expert. In the meantime I suggest we continue to act as friends towards an old friend. When you go barking mad, you might need your mates to stand beside you whilst you dribble and widdle.

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#203

2024 paper (40 pages) by Stephen Miran, current chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, which has influenced tariff policy, https://www.hudsonbaycapital.com/documents/FG/hudsonbay/rese... The root of the economic imbalances lies in persistent dollar overvaluation that prevents the balancing of international trade, and this overvaluation is driven by inelastic demand for reserve assets. As global GDP grows, it beco…

> As global GDP grows, it becomes increasingly burdensome for the United States to finance the provision of reserve assets and the defense umbrella I don't understand. US share of global GDP is around where it was in 1980, and in 1995[1]. Is Miran arguing that America's "exorbitant privilege" of being the source of the world's reserve currency, literally being able to buy goods from any country in the world with mone…

Yes, that's exactly what a liability is! US currency is an IOU. The more of it out in the world the less value there is in America's domestic assets.

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#204
post #8

This is an inherently political subject, but I would appreciate a dispassionate argument explaining how this could be even remotely good for the U.S.'s economy in a way that is light on MAGA ideology and doesn't simply claim the overwhelming majority of economists are dumb. I'm simply not seeing even a glimmer of a possible upside right now. I see even less possibility of an upside for those of us North of the border…

The belief of Trump and his allies is that the last 40 years of free trade has been extremely favorable to college educated "elites" and extremely unfavorable to the working class. They see foreign trade as having hollowed out American manufacturing, and therefore they see the shutting down foreign trade as a way to reverse this decline. While they are aware that doing so will hurt college educated professionals, the…

Sure, it's just that though, a belief. The vast majority of the poor have prospered from free trade; indeed, the costs they complain the most about (health, education, housing) are the biggest categories of things that _can't_ be traded.

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#205
post #10

You know the craziest thing about watching this as an outsider in Canada is that we as a nation are losing one reliable trading partner (and obviously losing an ally but that's another conversation). Germany - losing a trade partner. Japan? And so on. But the US has lost 180 reliable trading partners. You're already seeing in the first week burgeoning trade alliances between nations who wouldn't have cooperated befor…

Very well put. Alliances take years to build but can be broken in just days. I'm tempted to think (hope? dream?) that the markets and trade will rebound if all this chaos makes American politics swing back towards an interest in global stability, but I think anyone partnering with the US would do so VERY carefully and right now the entire world is plotting how to remove US dependencies.

https://www.retailcouncil.org/u-s-hits-185-nations-with-tari...

> No new tariffs were announced for Canada. Canada and Mexico’s exemption for USMCA/CUSMA qualifying goods was maintained. However, 25% tariffs on non-USMCA compliant Canadian goods, Canadian steel and aluminum, Canadian autos and parts, and the 10% tariff on Canadian energy exports remain in place.. there are signs that negotiators on both sides are trying to steer Canada-US trade to a more productive process of an expedited renegotiation of the Canada-US-Mexico Trade Agreement (CUSMA).

More context on US trade policy: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43589350

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#206
post #10

You know the craziest thing about watching this as an outsider in Canada is that we as a nation are losing one reliable trading partner (and obviously losing an ally but that's another conversation). Germany - losing a trade partner. Japan? And so on. But the US has lost 180 reliable trading partners. You're already seeing in the first week burgeoning trade alliances between nations who wouldn't have cooperated befor…

[deleted]

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#207
post #12

So honest question: A bunch of people who currently own stock are deciding they'd rather have cash instead -- that much is obvious. But what exactly are they doing with the cash? Don't want to hold onto it, everyone says devaluation and inflation is coming. Bitcoin and gold are kinda flat. I expected them to shoot up as uncertainty hedges. What gives?

If I had $1000 in cash, and inflation hits 10%, the purchasing power is equivalent to (1000 / 1.1 = ~$909) in 2026. If I had the same $1000 in stock, and it lost 11% of its value in 2 days, I might worry about it being worth close to $0 by the end of the month.

> Brazilian hyperinflation lasted from 1985 (the year when the military dictatorship ended) to 1994, with prices rising by 184,901,570,954.39% (or 1.849×1011 percent; equivalent to a tenfold increase on average a year)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperinflation#Notable_hyperin...

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#208
post #12

So honest question: A bunch of people who currently own stock are deciding they'd rather have cash instead -- that much is obvious. But what exactly are they doing with the cash? Don't want to hold onto it, everyone says devaluation and inflation is coming. Bitcoin and gold are kinda flat. I expected them to shoot up as uncertainty hedges. What gives?

ROTH conversions.

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#209

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In what plane of reality is China isolationist

Do you think walling their population off from the Internet doesn't qualify?

Economically and diplomatically? No, it doesn't.

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#210
post #72
post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think that those in command are also waiting for the next President to undo all that but it is going to have a tremendous effect for a decade or more. Hopefully for the US they won't go in a similar crisis like the UK is going through... Cutting off countries like Japan or Taiwan like that when we know their geopolitical situation with China and how critical their economy is to the US is quite crazy.

> Hopefully for the US they won't go in a similar crisis like the UK is going through... Err.. do tell about the UK's larger crisis than US'?

[deleted]
Post reply on HN