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Vaccine experts: Covid-19 booster shots aren't needed now

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Re: Vaccine experts: Covid-19 booster shots aren't needed now

#201

Post by brigandish »

moviewise wrote: post #195

The CDC has a pdf (downloadable) presentation about the data being used to decide on COVID booster vaccines: https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/108332/cdc_108332_DS1.pdf The UK government has data showing that about 2X more fully vaccinated people are dying from COVID than the unvaccinated (1,091 fully vaccinated vs. 536 vaccinated), even though the unvaccinated account for 3X more patients coming in for emergency care…

> The UK government has data showing that about 2X more fully vaccinated people are dying from COVID than the unvaccinated (1,091 fully vaccinated vs. 536 vaccinated), even though the unvaccinated account for 3X more patients coming in for emergency care

Because of the demographics of those 2 groups (old are more likely vaccinated, middle aged and below are less likely) and their risk profiles - it takes 150 people in their 40's to be vaccinated to have the same impact that 1 person in their 80's being vaccinated will.

Re: Vaccine experts: Covid-19 booster shots aren't needed now

#202

Post by moviewise »

refurb wrote: post #198
moviewise wrote: post #195

The CDC has a pdf (downloadable) presentation about the data being used to decide on COVID booster vaccines: https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/108332/cdc_108332_DS1.pdf The UK government has data showing that about 2X more fully vaccinated people are dying from COVID than the unvaccinated (1,091 fully vaccinated vs. 536 vaccinated), even though the unvaccinated account for 3X more patients coming in for emergency care…

But that would somewhat makes sense? Those at highest risk of Covid would be vaccinated, those at lowest risk unvaccinated.

Yes. Also this: “It isn’t the absolute number of deaths that should be compared as there are 20 times MORE people vaccinated over age 50 (where most deaths occur) than unvaccinated. The UK has a 95% vaccination rate for people over 50. The rate of deaths is much, much lower in the vaccinated population. The rate of death is the number who have died in a population (vaccinated or unvaccinated) relative to the size of the population, usually expressed as number per 100,000 people. With 20,000,000 vaccinated people over 50, the death rate is 3.2 (per 100,000 people), but for the 1,000,000 UNvaccinated people, the death rate is 32 (per 100,000 people) — ten times higher. In other words, the vaccine is 90% effective against death, consistent with what was found in the original clinical trials.”

Re: Vaccine experts: Covid-19 booster shots aren't needed now

#203

Post by toast0 »

logifail wrote: post #189
belltaco wrote: post #180

Earlier quoted context omitted.

On that page NHS seem to make a cost tradeoff for free flu vaccine since they have to pay the costs. From the CDC >Who should get a flu vaccine this season? >Everyone 6 months and older should get a flu vaccine every season with rare exceptions. Vaccination is particularly important for people who are at higher risk of serious complications from influenza. A full listing of people at Higher Risk of Developing Flu-Rel…

> From the CDC > > Everyone 6 months and older should get a flu vaccine every season with rare exceptions According to the Nuffield Trust[0], international flu vaccination coverage varies widely. It appears from the chart the US is only reaching 65% - 70% of their over-65s with annual flu vaccine. How much does it cost to get the annual flu vaccine in the US? [0] https://www.nuffieldtrust.org.uk/resource/adult-flu-va…

> How much does it cost to get the annual flu vaccine in the US?

As with all things in the US healthcare system, nobody knows how much anything costs.

That said, annual flu vaccine is included under mandatory no direct user cost vaccinations in insurance plans covered by the Affordable Care Act (although your insurer can pick and choose what locations they'll cover).

Re: Vaccine experts: Covid-19 booster shots aren't needed now

#204

Post by HWR_14 »

est31 wrote: post #24
raesene9 wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'd agree in the ideal world that's exactly what should happen, however in reality there are a load of unadministered doses in the US ( https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1437617018782449668?s=2... ) which will go to waste if not used, so it would seem to make sense to use those for boosters where they're available.

What about sending the unused doses to developing countries? Then they wouldn't go to waste.

The US government, to secure the doses, committed to indemnify the suppliers if anything went wrong and not to transfer the doses to any country that would not (or in some cases, they had to commit to not transferring the doses at all). Most countries are refusing to indemnify the companies.

So the US government would be in breach of contract and could be sued for sending the doses overseas.

Re: Vaccine experts: Covid-19 booster shots aren't needed now

#205

Post by emn13 »

ericb wrote: post #120
Tepix wrote: post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You are not protected againts new mutations just because they originate from another place in the world. You are not reducing the chances for new mutations. Keeping the vaccine to yourself will not help you.

I think you're misunderstanding the intent of the parent post. They are saying letting vaccines go to the rest of the world is still the right course of action even if your motives were purely selfish. By reducing the number of infections elsewhere, the virus has fewer chances to mutate and return to and endanger you.

While in principle that's clearly sound - fewer viral particles means fewer future variants appears to be the consensus opinion - I'm skeptical that the decision to recommend boosters after 8 months will have a measurable impact on that.

First of all, even under rosy vaccine acceptance trajectories that's not going to be many doses vs. the unvaccinated population; secondly, you need 1 dose for a booster, yet 2 for a full vaccination; thirdly, the data for hospitalisations may not be in, but for mere infections it is clearly showing a reduction in efficacy well before a that 8 month mininum so the opportunity cost of not vaccinating half a person will be offset in terms of transmission by the booster dose; fourthly not all vaccines are easily distributed, and as long as the US needs to have a readily available supply to entice the unvaccinated stragglers, you might as well use doses nearing expiration dates for boosters rather than throwing them away; fifth: we're not at 8 months yet for most people, and if the minimum delay is 8 months the average might be considerably more such that by the time this matters vaccine production should be higher and thus the loss relatively less impactful.

Some of those effects might be trivial or zero, but at the very least the small number of doses overall affected probably isn't. I'd be really surprised if the US reaches 100 million booster doses by next spring; and even if we did that's just not a huge number if your aim is to reduce transmission (as opposed to suffering).

Re: Vaccine experts: Covid-19 booster shots aren't needed now

#206

Post by nafix »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #147
mchusma wrote: post #139

The whole booster conversation seems like a political game. If you have a vaccine, then your risk of death is far below that of the flu (statistically). If you don't have a vaccine by now, you want covid instead and this booster conversation is irrelevant. Kids are banned from taking anything. So I expect booster or no booster, frankly it just won't matter much at the population scale. I also don't understand the mas…

> If you don't have a vaccine by now, you want covid instead and this booster conversation is irrelevant Friend’s mother visiting from Jamaica. People in her country are dying while they wait for first shots. The voluntarily unvaccinated in America are idiots. The author’s point is there are billions of unvoluntarily unvaccinated around the world to whom these doses could go.

It's highly ignorant to call unvaccinated Americans idiots. Over 100 million Americans have already caught and recovered from Covid. I imagine many in that group don't see any value in getting the vaccine (rightfully so).

Re: Vaccine experts: Covid-19 booster shots aren't needed now

#207

Post by _kulang »

thesis wrote: post #187
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #147

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If you don't have a vaccine by now, you want covid instead and this booster conversation is irrelevant Friend’s mother visiting from Jamaica. People in her country are dying while they wait for first shots. The voluntarily unvaccinated in America are idiots. The author’s point is there are billions of unvoluntarily unvaccinated around the world to whom these doses could go.

Yikes. Idiots? All this condescension all the time. Maybe some people won’t get the vaccine because they already had Covid. Israeli study showed that people who had Covid are more protected than the vaccinated.

Doesn’t hurt to get vaccinated anyway. In fact that should offer the most protection overall.

And that’s besides the point as the recovered may as well be vaccinated in the context of this discussion.

Re: Vaccine experts: Covid-19 booster shots aren't needed now

#208

Post by leeter »

ianhawes wrote: post #128
epmaybe wrote: post #95

I think this reporting is dancing around the issue, that the vaccine supply is most concentrated in countries that have essentially reached their maximum vaccination percentage. By not providing access to those developing or smaller countries, larger countries are shooting themselves in the proverbial global foot. I don’t think countries like the US and Canada aren’t trying to do that, I just think these experts woul…

If you are continually exposed to COVID-19, wouldn’t you effectively be “re-upping” your immune system every time there is additional exposure?

No, exposure to the virus is like exposure to combat. You may not die, but the likelihood goes up the more time you spend exposed to it and the more of it you get exposed to. To keep with that metaphor a vaccine is like a war game, it won't kill you but it's not the real thing either. But if you've done it you're better off than if you hadn't.

Re: Vaccine experts: Covid-19 booster shots aren't needed now

#210

Post by devwastaken »

nafix wrote: post #206
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #147

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If you don't have a vaccine by now, you want covid instead and this booster conversation is irrelevant Friend’s mother visiting from Jamaica. People in her country are dying while they wait for first shots. The voluntarily unvaccinated in America are idiots. The author’s point is there are billions of unvoluntarily unvaccinated around the world to whom these doses could go.

It's highly ignorant to call unvaccinated Americans idiots. Over 100 million Americans have already caught and recovered from Covid. I imagine many in that group don't see any value in getting the vaccine (rightfully so).

Most of those people don't actually know they had COVID. They make up stories that "they've already had it". Remember that vaccinated still get COVID, those numbers include them.
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