Colorado here - please check the math.
California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds
201–210 of 362 posts
Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds
#202Earlier quoted context omitted.
The myth (repeated endlessly here and elsewhere) is that high taxes and excessive commercial regulation are driving wealthy founders and other knowledge workers out of California. The truth is that high housing prices are driving low and middle income households out of the state.
Years ago (2007ish) I worked for a startup owned by a guy that relocated to Reno and had a huge property in some mountaintop country club on the edge of the city line. As we stood in the snow, looking out over Reno (where they had none) he was telling me all about how the money he saved on taxes in California 100% financed the property we were standing on. It was a very nice house... guessing about 4000 or 5000 sqft.…
There are markets that are filled up with established players and lots of competition, and then there are markets with more opportunity because they are still developing. You can get eaten alive by competition as well as taxes, more so in fact. It isn’t clear that any of the two cases you referred to are because of taxes rather than competing in mature markets.
Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds
#203Earlier quoted context omitted.
I worked at big tech in California for a bit, and, anecdotally, all of my coworkers stated that they didn't plan to retire in California, because it's just so expensive it makes no economic sense. It seems the plan for many people who come in California to work at big tech is to make big money for some number of years and then move out. I ended up leaving, in part because I didn't love the culture there, and some of…
They're wrong about that. The reason California is expensive for them is because the state is set up to be easy to retire in - they're just paying for all the retired boomers. If they stay long enough, they'll get to exploit the next generation too.
Gonna be the [citation needed] guy here again. I've lived in the SF Bay Area for nearly 20 years, know other people who moved here around the time of the first dotcom boom and a few more who actually grew up here (they exist), and of that group of a couple dozen friends and acquaintances ranging in age from around 30 to over 60, the number of people who believe California will be "easy to retire in" is precisely zero.
I have a feeling you're trying to make a comment about California's property tax system and the way it's protected now-retired homeowners. And, you know, fine, if someone can buy a California house now and stays here through retirement age and they don't change the property tax system, they can take advantage of that, but that is one heapin' helpin' of "if" there, pardner.
Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds
#204Earlier quoted context omitted.
Do you have data to back that up? Do we know that the number of Californians leaving is higher than before, and if so, by how much?
California lost a seat in the Congress while Texas gain two seats. California exodus might be a myth but there is no inflow of people while Texas is gaining more people from other states.
It’s crazy to think that Texas and California started out having the same number of people as recent as 1940, and now California is 33% more populous. It isn’t weird that growth in Texas might start picking up considering how slowly it has grown compared to California over the last 80 years.
Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds
#205"Similarly, the research found no evidence of millionaire flight from California...".
This nonsense is clearly peddled by local politicians trying to save their faces.
I moved from CA to Vegas which automatically boosted my income by +10%. With covid times where major employers allowing people work from home - this is logical move for tens of thousands of people. No houses for sale in decent Vegas neighborhoods here, mostly hunted by people from CA.
My millionaire friend sold his beloved house and moved to NV as well. Lots of people i know moving to TX, FL or NV.
Raising taxes, new taxes, stupid liberal policies stimulating crime and filth, unhealthy political climate, corrupt and uncapable governor.
The list goes on. En masse or not - the tendency is there.
Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds
#206"The thing I have noticed is when the anecdotes and the data disagree, the anecdotes are usually right. There's something wrong with the way you are measuring it." - Jeff Bezos This is a tricky article because I can tell it's using the term 'exodus' and 'myth' differently than I would. It's abundantly clear there is a lot of migration out of California. Just ask Texans, Coloradans, and Idahoans.
I'll throw in my 2 cents that I can confirm the anecdote. I just moved to a small town in Idaho because my wife was from there. We found our house because several new developments are going up. As I've been chatting with some people at church* I was told that about 1/3 of the people that attend have moved to our little town in Idaho from Southern California in the past 2 years or so. That might not seem like much, bu…
> * Note: The church I attend is a world wide church and divides it's congregations based on geographic area, encouraging people to attend the service based on where they live. This point is made to forestall the correlation causation criticism, that would imply the church I attend is particularlye attractive to people that have recently moved in from SoCal,
If we are talking about movements of people between California and Idaho, we can throw in Utah as well, then there is one church that has traditionally been very strong in those three states (and much of the west). I mean, what other church is so strong in SoCal that it owns a bunch of land (enough for a few sports fields) in LA Westwood near UCLA?
If Mormons are leaving SoCal for Idaho or Utah, that wouldn’t be very surprising at all.
Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds
#207Earlier quoted context omitted.
> Anti-tech sentiment peaked in the early 2010s. Tech buses stopped being vandalized and the “die techie scum” thing mostly went away after 2015. While we're comparing anecdotal evidence, I live in Los Angeles and count among my peers many who work in the Hollywood/Media industry. I can assure you the general sentiment among them toward Big Tech is overwhelmingly negative. I work in tech (albeit not a large company)…
A lot of this negative big tech sentiment isn’t backed by anything rational, it’s the same middle school or high school mentality of beating up nerds.
I believe the primary reason for anti-tech sentiment in SF is gentrification: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gentrification_of_San_Franci...
Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds
#208"Similarly, the research found no evidence of millionaire flight from California...". This nonsense is clearly peddled by local politicians trying to save their faces. I moved from CA to Vegas which automatically boosted my income by +10%. With covid times where major employers allowing people work from home - this is logical move for tens of thousands of people. No houses for sale in decent Vegas neighborhoods here,…
Your anecdotes are not data. This research paper is, and I expect it's a lot more representative than your anecdotes are.
Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds
#209Earlier quoted context omitted.
To clarify I am saying that some people on here are saying that California is anti-business/anti-tech and that is why people are moving out. I am saying the vast majority of people moving out of CA are just doing so because general cost of living isn't a great deal. And almost by definition, if you move to California from somewhere else then "home" would be lower cost of living. Only exceptions are if you grew up in…
> Only exceptions are if you grew up in NYC, Boston, DC or a few other cities. And pretty much all Hawaiian transplants.
Sure. But Hawaii is very small. Less than 0.4% of the US population. People have brought it up many times on this discussion thread.
Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds
#210I know several that have left for Texas. I know one that left for Michigan. One that left for San Diego. A few that left for Seattle. So it’s very real. Whether or not it moves the needle though is the bigger question. I myself would never move unless some sort of environmental catastrophe hit it, like forest fires or no more water which is actually a possibility.
Anecdotes are not statistical facts. Did you read the story? It clearly shows that statistically, no, it's not real.
There could be interesting trends around subgroups that aren't obvious from population-level stats.