Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

The plans to reopen the economy are scary

vox.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

201–210 of 214 posts

Re: The plans to reopen the economy are scary

#201

Post by mnm1 »

Barrin92 wrote: post #193
mnm1 wrote: post #186

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Let's say two people walk past each other on the street or stand close in a shop, as far as we know the risk of transmission is non-existent or extremely low. WTF? What we know is exactly the opposite.

We don't. The primary transmission path is droplets through people in close contact (less than two meters, inhaling aerosols etc..). There is no current evidence that people simply walking past each other can somehow infect others at a meaningful rate, and surface tranmission is negligible as well. See most recent results from the German researchers in Heinsberg.

Walking past each other and people standing close to each other both imply close contact at less than two meters. Coughing can send the virus around seven meters. You do the math.

Re: The plans to reopen the economy are scary

#202

Post by Mediterraneo10 »

jeffrallen wrote: post #184
Mediterraneo10 wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Unfortunately, the PEPP-PT approach will not protect privacy in many European countries. This is because an individual is linked to a phone number. Since you cannot purchase a SIM card in many countries without showing ID (and a copy of your ID is made and sent to the state authorities), the state is easily able to match phone numbers with people’s real identities. Consequently, the authorities will easily be able to…

I agree that PEPP-PT is not too clear on their commitment to protecting privacy. I disagree that anything about the DP-3T system divulges SUM numbers. Go read the 3 pager and see.

In order to automatically send warning SMSs to everyone you have been in contact with, the system has to link app users to phone numbers.

Re: The plans to reopen the economy are scary

#203

Post by alkonaut »

redis_mlc wrote: post #189
alkonaut wrote: post #153

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Your chance of getting a severe case of you are infected is 5-10% or something similar. That’s a case that you want to have a hospital bed for, maybe an ICU bed. If all beds are taken then many of those severe cases will kill people. Say mortality is 3% instead of 0.5% once hospital capacity runs out. Assume 60% need to get it before we have herd immunity. I don’t think 3% mortality without healthcare is pessimistic.…

The data on the Santa Clara (California) stats site shows that 10% of those tested are infected. https://www.sccgov.org/sites/phd/DiseaseInformation/novel-co... What your comment is missing is that the mortality of ventilators is 66% - 90%. So they're not a good solution for most patients. ICU doctors have been recommending using non-intrusive methods like cannulas as long as possible before intubating. However, that…

It doesn’t really matter if mortality in ICU’s is high so long as it’s much higher without ICU treatment. For young patients the mortality is very low exactly because they are likely to survive ICU care, while a 70 year old is unlikely to survive and an 80 year old is unlikely to be given ICU care to begin with.

If ICU mortality is extremely high (e.g over 2/3) then doctors probably need to be more selective. The judgement should be not only that patients should walk out, but also survive for a period after treatment, say a year. It’s also not only about ICU treatment, regular hospital beds and doctors are also not unlimited.

I think in many places doctors are feeling pressured to use invasive ventilation for patients that have a low chance of surviving a year after care. Patients who get invasive ventilation should be carefully selected even if there is no shortage. If mortality is very high, this is a signal that doctors are giving ICU care to too many patients that aren’t helped by it.

Re: The plans to reopen the economy are scary

#204

Post by burfog »

ztjio wrote: post #188
LyndsySimon wrote: post #152

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It's clearly a case of more right leaning areas taking less cautious measures in favor of money. While I see where you’re coming from with this statement, I’m not sure I agree. From where I stand - a town of 13k people surrounded by a large rural area - it makes sense that we’re taking less aggressive action because the virus is not yet endemic here. Given the growth of confirmed cases in my area (northern Arkansas…

Literally everyone in this scenario thinks this way at first because they can't comprehend exponential growth. Nobody can, there are actual studies that show nobody can understand it so it's not a slight. The only way you can convince me based on evidence elsewhere that your scenario is going to be any better than anywhere else is if your leadership in your area is doing aggressive testing, contact tracing and target…

Consider the R0 value that you're trying to reduce by social distancing.

New York City starts with a high value. People encounter each other in apartment hallways, packed subways, crowded streets, and huge stadiums.

Rural places don't have any of that. People don't pass by any non-family when going from home to car. Non-family don't share that car. The streets are nearly empty of people, with just the occasional person out walking a dog.

There might not be exponential growth. If R0 is below 1, there is exponential decay.

Re: The plans to reopen the economy are scary

#205

Post by burfog »

Melting_Harps wrote: post #146
ethanwillis wrote: post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the last point is rooted in some modern ideas about what it costs to develop and deliver an education. Our education system cost (At least in the States) is absurdly overpriced and most of that money is not going to the professors. You don't need to pay people to take biology courses. You need to pay people UBI so that they could choose to take biology courses. Then you only need a (relatively) modest amount…

> You don't need to pay people to take biology courses. You need to pay people UBI so that they could choose to take biology courses. Then you only need a (relatively) modest amount of money to design the course, pay the graders, and deliver the content. I agree with your sentiment, forcing people into Biology is entirely the wrong approach--I was and I detested my HS level classes, and even most of my lower division…

Life Sciences would be appealing to the masses if it paid better, more like Computer Science does. It would pay better if there were a need for more people to do Life Sciences.

Re: The plans to reopen the economy are scary

#206

Post by jfnixon »

alkonaut wrote: post #112
siscia wrote: post #40

For how much I understand the need to lower the curve and reduce the R0 of the infection, I start to see also another argument. We are basically pausing the life of younger people, indefinitely, to protect the elders. Again, since the quarantine started in my area I exist twice to buy groceries and that's all. So I understand the need and the importance of it. But should I really throw away on year of my life? Should…

Sweden uses much lighter restrictions with industry still running, most shops still open, and schools for younger children open. One of the keys in this lighter strategy was to protect the elderly, with bans on visits to homes for the elderly and so on. Unfortunately that wasn’t enough, the spread has hit many such facilities with a high number of deaths as a result. It’s hard to isolate the elderly if they are so ol…

Test the young caregivers for antibodies. Only permit those with antibodies and no viral load to get anywhere near the elderly. Pay extra if necessary, it would be much better than breaking society.

Re: The plans to reopen the economy are scary

#207

Post by eloff »

wbl wrote: post #52
eloff wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If they had just closed their borders earlier could this have all been avoided? Seems like that would have been a lot cheaper. Definitely border restrictions plus testing seems to be effective in keeping it out, see Taiwan. Once you get enough local transmission going then it didn't matter anymore. Every western country reacted too slowly in this regard.

A lot of trade goes over those borders, and it only takes a few cases on the wrong side. Sure if on 1 Jan the RoW had shut borders with china things might have gone ok.

You can never get 100%, but it seems you can get enough to prevent it from flaring into community transmission. Keep in mind if I'm wrong, this lock down never ends - that's the only way you can keep other hot spots in the world from reinfecting your country after you get it under control.

Re: The plans to reopen the economy are scary

#208

Post by eloff »

akhilcacharya wrote: post #61
eloff wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If they had just closed their borders earlier could this have all been avoided? Seems like that would have been a lot cheaper. Definitely border restrictions plus testing seems to be effective in keeping it out, see Taiwan. Once you get enough local transmission going then it didn't matter anymore. Every western country reacted too slowly in this regard.

No because you cannot close borders off to American citizens. Even travel bans aren't terribly effective because you can pass through other countries or be infected in other countries.

But you can force them into quarantine for two weeks when they return? That's what we're doing here in Canada.

Re: The plans to reopen the economy are scary

#209

Post by alkonaut »

jfnixon wrote: post #206
alkonaut wrote: post #112

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sweden uses much lighter restrictions with industry still running, most shops still open, and schools for younger children open. One of the keys in this lighter strategy was to protect the elderly, with bans on visits to homes for the elderly and so on. Unfortunately that wasn’t enough, the spread has hit many such facilities with a high number of deaths as a result. It’s hard to isolate the elderly if they are so ol…

Test the young caregivers for antibodies. Only permit those with antibodies and no viral load to get anywhere near the elderly. Pay extra if necessary, it would be much better than breaking society.

The problem is that the problem of finding staff is difficult in normal circumstances, and almost impossible right now when lots of people are sick. Add to that the fact that unlike healthcare professionals these caregivers have much less hygiene trained and currently littlr PPE available, and you have the recipe for trouble.

Antibody tests are also almost useless on an individual level: If they have 4% false positive rate and 10% have antibodies then there are 36000 false positives (4% of 900k) when a million people are tested! Antibody tests are good at a group level to measure the progress of the epidemic, but unless the incidence is high or better test methods are found, they are near useless for what you are describing, sadly.

Re: The plans to reopen the economy are scary

#210

Post by lostmsu »

redis_mlc wrote: post #179
lostmsu wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This plan is stupid. In U.S. under lockdowns, already 18k people died in just a few weeks, and every day 1k more die, and that number is still growing. The worst estimate for 2018 flu was 56k (e.g. less than a month left under current lockdown regime to surpass it), best is 12k which is long surpassed.

People die every year from flu in the tens of thousands, or car accidents, or myriad other causes. Rather than an emotional response, we need healthcare policy experts to look at the data as of today. What has changed in the past month is that we know ventilators don't work 66% - 90% of the time, so they should be taken out of the "flattening the curve" equation. Please see my post with several links to learn more.

Where do you see emotional response? I just gave you numbers. You can look at the curve, see where it is going, and imagine what would happen, if there was no lockdown.
Post reply on HN