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How South Korea Reined In The Outbreak Without Shutting Everything Down

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Re: How South Korea Reined In The Outbreak Without Shutting Everything Down

#201

Post by throwaway_pdp09 »

llarsson wrote: post #159
throwaway_pdp09 wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Could you post the list here for us who can't use twitter (permanently disabled JS).

Then your browser does a shitty job of telling Twitter that. Properly blocked JS gives you a link to "legacy" Twitter, which works perfectly without JS. At least viewing, which is all I do. Does this link work for you? https://mobile.twitter.com/jeremyphoward/status/124289437844...

I've never been able to use it. I get sent to a "do you want to use legacy twitter?" thing, I click Yes and it just gives me the same screen again, every time.

Happens I proxy through squid - it might have something to do with that. If I go direct (no proxy) it works. Interesting.

At least I can get to it, and will read your link this evening. Thank you.

Re: How South Korea Reined In The Outbreak Without Shutting Everything Down

#202

Post by lunchables »

billfruit wrote: post #157

Last few days though, more numbers are being reported of new infections in both China and South Korea. Yesterday more than 100+ in SK I think.

Doesn't look like the trend there is really changing since it peaked around March 8th. Seems pretty consistently in the low hundreds of new confirmed a day.

If you scroll down the page there's a graph that helps to visualize it: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/south-kore...

Re: How South Korea Reined In The Outbreak Without Shutting Everything Down

#203

Post by cyphar »

endorphone wrote: post #58
throwaway_pdp09 wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've read repeatedly (and heard on the radio several times) that wearing a mask if YOU are infected will help protect other people, but if you are not infected then it has no known protective effect ie. is not thought to be any more protective than not wearing one. Do you have any evidence to back up you talk of masks? (And if YOU are infected you should not be out anyway) Edit: I was thinking of non-medical situatio…

"no known protective effect" Right. No one has ever studied contagions among the community at large and the effect of masks. When you hear people say there is no evidence, this is what they are referring. "is not thought to be any more protective than not wearing one" This is taking that claim too far, and is seldom what they're saying. Or rather never what they are saying. Early on there were PDAs that discouraged m…

> Right. No one has ever studied contagions among the community at large and the effect of masks. When you hear people say there is no evidence, this is what they are referring.

Actually, they have[1,2]. According to one study, surgical masks helped cut down the community spread of SARS in Beijing by 70%[3]:

> Always wearing a mask when going out was associated with a 70% reduction in risk compared with never wearing a mask.

But if you're specifically referring to randomised trials on mask efficacy during an on-going pandemic, you're right that there are no such studies -- because it would be unethical. So effectively all of the relevant studies are retrospective (which does introduce recall bias), but these are basically the best studies we can do ethically.

[1]: https://medium.com/better-humans/whats-the-evidence-on-face-... [2]: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6993921/ [3]: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3322931/

Re: How South Korea Reined In The Outbreak Without Shutting Everything Down

#204

Post by fiftyfifty »

logicchains wrote: post #107
adventured wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's a consideration. However, where is the million dead people that should be happening between these nations given the 440 million people? The virus would be destroying them at this point. We've seen what it can do in Italy, the US, Germany, France, etc. in terms of spreading and hitting ICU units, killing people. It has a 10% mortality rate despite Italy's best efforts, and a 5.7% mortality rate in France (among p…

Check the population pyramid for these countries. They have a way smaller fraction of old people, and a way larger fraction of young people. This has a big effect on fatality rates.

What about Florida (and Arizona) in the US? Those states are overrun with old people and they are actively avoiding testing and mandatory isolation. Florida has 29 deaths right now attributed to Covid-19 and their governor is being criticized daily for his poor response.

Re: How South Korea Reined In The Outbreak Without Shutting Everything Down

#205

Post by billfruit »

lunchables wrote: post #202
billfruit wrote: post #157

Last few days though, more numbers are being reported of new infections in both China and South Korea. Yesterday more than 100+ in SK I think.

Doesn't look like the trend there is really changing since it peaked around March 8th. Seems pretty consistently in the low hundreds of new confirmed a day. If you scroll down the page there's a graph that helps to visualize it: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/south-kore...

Yes it isn't changing, but it does not seem to be tending towards falling to zero.

Re: How South Korea Reined In The Outbreak Without Shutting Everything Down

#206

Post by mensetmanusman »

_trampeltier wrote: post #88
netsharc wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's a bit of luck that the coutry had a private biotech company that makes tests for viruses, and the CEO of said company looked at Wuhan and decided to get samples from China. I suppose, just like every country has a military or people managing their transportation infrastructure, there should be a "pandemic watch". (Well the US had a good one until Trump/John Bolton defunded it)

Europe and the US even had more time, there is no excuse. It was clear from the day one how to or not to act. Europe and the US did not act at all in the beginning until it was to late to check each single case.

It’s not clear what ‘day 1’ means in the context of China though. China has kicked out all western reporters, constantly lies like Russia even when the truth is visible in the background, and arrests citizens who try to get around this system.

The west was never going to believe what was happening in China because it is impossible to know without invading them.

Re: How South Korea Reined In The Outbreak Without Shutting Everything Down

#207

Post by Freestyler_3 »

_trampeltier wrote: post #88
netsharc wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's a bit of luck that the coutry had a private biotech company that makes tests for viruses, and the CEO of said company looked at Wuhan and decided to get samples from China. I suppose, just like every country has a military or people managing their transportation infrastructure, there should be a "pandemic watch". (Well the US had a good one until Trump/John Bolton defunded it)

Europe and the US even had more time, there is no excuse. It was clear from the day one how to or not to act. Europe and the US did not act at all in the beginning until it was to late to check each single case.

Now the focus is on bending the curve with minimal effort.

Re: How South Korea Reined In The Outbreak Without Shutting Everything Down

#208

Post by lunchables »

dirtyid wrote: post #66

South Korea is basically an island, conducted serendipitous did large scale pandemic drill in December, has a compliant population with mandatory civil service and memory of recent authoritarian government, can mobilize techno-authoritarian surveillance. My question is, what is happening in Japan? Except wide spread mask usage, they have systemic undertesting at 1/6 capacity, no social distance measures, nothing shut…

Lots of theories. They have a culture that doesn't shake hands or hug, they caught cases early and had a relatively low infection rate (they claim 80% did not spread the virus), a culture of wearing face masks or possibly it is just due to low testing rates and is actually worse than the numbers suggest.

source: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-19/a-coronav...

Re: How South Korea Reined In The Outbreak Without Shutting Everything Down

#209

Post by koonsolo »

mcsb4 wrote: post #21

Again another article that doesn't even mention the use of masks and hand sanitizer. The cost of the epidemic now goes into the trillions, self-made cotton masks are cheap compared to the economic damage. They can be disinfected in boiling water and if everybody uses them they will help to stop the spreading of the virus. In all the countries mentioned in the article people wear masks when in public, often just again…

Sure, but it needs to be a 'proper' mask.

Yesterday I was in a shop and saw 2 different people with a scarf over their mouth. You would think this is no problem, but they both had to keep this scarf up with their hands... . Seems like the most effective way to spread and receive germs.

Govermnent needs to be clear what the protocol is.

Re: How South Korea Reined In The Outbreak Without Shutting Everything Down

#210

Post by lunchables »

billfruit wrote: post #205
lunchables wrote: post #202

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Doesn't look like the trend there is really changing since it peaked around March 8th. Seems pretty consistently in the low hundreds of new confirmed a day. If you scroll down the page there's a graph that helps to visualize it: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/south-kore...

Yes it isn't changing, but it does not seem to be tending towards falling to zero.

My point is that using data from "the last couple days" isn't really indicating anything new in SK. Confirmed cases have been consistent for weeks.
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