Hong Kong leader to announce formal withdrawal of extradition bill • Hacker News Board

Re: Hong Kong leader to announce formal withdrawal of extradition bill

#201

Post by lacker » Wed, Sep 04, 2019, 3:50 PM UTC

euix wrote: post #161

If push comes to shove Beijing will kill the "not-so-golden-now goose". Especially now that Xi has effectively consolidated control over the coercive forces of the Chinese state. As long as the security and the army is with him it will work. Worse case the SAR region is dissolved and a party official is sent to govern directly. A lot of people said if Beijing cracked down in '89 that would be the end of the regime bu…

Worse case the SAR region is dissolved and a party official is sent to govern directly.

Nah, the worst case is that some of the protesters acquire nuclear weapons, threaten mainland China with them, Xi calls their bluff and moves in, it wasn't a bluff, Xi blames America, nuclear World War 3 starts.

Or perhaps this peaceful protest gets quashed, and a violent insurrection that lasts decades begins. Beijing has a lot of places to hide IEDs.

But it is possible that this dies down and Hong Kong peacefully submits to communism.

Re: Hong Kong leader to announce formal withdrawal of extradition bill

#202

Post by nailer » Wed, Sep 04, 2019, 3:51 PM UTC

derukopi wrote: post #115

nailer wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're correct, assault is assault and should be punished. Incidentally, most of the more intense violence I've witnessed has been from the HK police: a quick selection from the front page of https://www.reddit.com/r/HongKong/ - https://www.reddit.com/r/HongKong/comments/cz2dba/hong_kong_... - https://www.reddit.com/r/HongKong/comments/czgvb7/emily_lau_... - https://www.reddit.com/r/HongKong/comments/cz93rd/suspected…

Just FYI, both Reuters and CNN dispute the 2 million number, as some of the photos were manipulated, - https://www.reuters.com/article/us-hongkong-extradition-back... - https://www.cnn.com/2019/06/19/asia/viral-photo-hong-kong-pr...

The account posting the photo mentioned they used a mirror effect in their original post. Your account was created two hours ago. Our audience can make of that what they will.

Re: Hong Kong leader to announce formal withdrawal of extradition bill

#203

Post by nickik » Wed, Sep 04, 2019, 3:53 PM UTC

bouncycastle wrote: post #104

rayiner wrote: post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Violence can never be a solution, only peaceful non-violent struggle can bring about real change. That’s facially not true. The American Revolution, the French Revolution, the Bangladeshi War of Independence, Irish independence, etc. History is full of examples where the right to self determination had to be vindicated with guns. Categorically delegitimizing violence against an oppressive state is a bad precedent.…

History is littered with graveyards upon graveyards of violent struggles for independance that didn't end up so well. Meanwhile, in the modern times, peaceful protests can being down even nuclear armed superpowers as we've seen in the 80s. Take a look https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_revolutions_and_rebell...

This is the typical old and wrong view about both the end of the cold war and other situations.

Revolutions, specially non-violent once succeed if the political establishment does not have the will or tools to resist.

The protestors in Europe and China were probably equally as brave. While in the Soviet system the elites had already divided and paralyzed themselves, that was the fundamental condition that allowed protest to be successful in eastern Europe.

The people in China, were simply shot down and 30 years after the CCP is in control still. The exact same thing could have happened in the Soviet Union, if the elites had not already crippled themselves.

Governments with modern arms don't fall to rebellions unless some significant part of the elite is either at least passive or actively supporting the revolution.

Re: Hong Kong leader to announce formal withdrawal of extradition bill

#204

Post by nickik » Wed, Sep 04, 2019, 3:56 PM UTC

bouncycastle wrote: post #193

mikeash wrote: post #113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And peaceful protestors can also be massacred and completely fail to bring about any change. Peaceful protests can work sometimes. Other times they do nothing. Same with armed resistance. Declaring one or the other to be the only possible way to bring about change is in direct contradiction to the facts.

> And peaceful protestors can also be massacred and completely fail to bring about any change Can you give an example? Every example I can think of right now that had a massacre of innocent protestors and no armed struggle either led to some change later down the road (eg. galvanizing the movement, reforms, or total collapse of the opressor), or became a major problem for the oppressor later down the track. A massacr…

Your reading history backwards. You assume that while 1970 protest, leads to 1980 protest and that lead to the fall of the Soviet Union. However that is wrong way to look at it, the right way is that in 1970 the Soviet Union had the will do stop the protesters, but not later. Those things mostly have to do with the discussions and political institutions the elites were working in.

The protesters in late 1980 might have been larger and more popular, but if the Soviet unreleased it might, it would not have mattered.

Re: Hong Kong leader to announce formal withdrawal of extradition bill

#205

Post by y2kenny » Wed, Sep 04, 2019, 3:56 PM UTC

derukopi wrote: post #115

nailer wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're correct, assault is assault and should be punished. Incidentally, most of the more intense violence I've witnessed has been from the HK police: a quick selection from the front page of https://www.reddit.com/r/HongKong/ - https://www.reddit.com/r/HongKong/comments/cz2dba/hong_kong_... - https://www.reddit.com/r/HongKong/comments/czgvb7/emily_lau_... - https://www.reddit.com/r/HongKong/comments/cz93rd/suspected…

Just FYI, both Reuters and CNN dispute the 2 million number, as some of the photos were manipulated, - https://www.reuters.com/article/us-hongkong-extradition-back... - https://www.cnn.com/2019/06/19/asia/viral-photo-hong-kong-pr...

That's not what you links said. Would you like to correct your assertion?

Re: Hong Kong leader to announce formal withdrawal of extradition bill

#206

Post by camgunz » Wed, Sep 04, 2019, 4:00 PM UTC

anvandare wrote: post #62

dragonsh wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I don't think Beijing anticipated or endorsed this. This is endorsed and approved by Beijing, she already declared the bill dead this is just a matter of wording. Legally it can be brought back as laws are always evolving and Hong Kong needs an extradition treaty with other jurisdiction including another system in its own country. For Mainland Chinese citizen the narrative will be altered, but will still be seen as…

>only peaceful non-violent struggle can bring about real change. Utterly false, but persistently preached by those in power to ensure there's never any real threat to their position. "Just lie down while I stomp your neck. Don't resist. We'll discuss your objections later, at a more convenient time." All political power emanates from the barrel of a gun. All civil power emanates from the people's latent threat to rev…

> The First Amendment is worthless without the Second Amendment.

The 2nd Amendment was never (and still isn't) meant to ensure the right of people to violently resist or overthrow the government. The way to influence the US government is to become involved in the process, not (threaten to) shoot people. If that's ever not the case, you don't have a country, you have a failed state.

Re: Hong Kong leader to announce formal withdrawal of extradition bill

#207

Post by mikeash » Wed, Sep 04, 2019, 4:01 PM UTC

bouncycastle wrote: post #193

mikeash wrote: post #113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And peaceful protestors can also be massacred and completely fail to bring about any change. Peaceful protests can work sometimes. Other times they do nothing. Same with armed resistance. Declaring one or the other to be the only possible way to bring about change is in direct contradiction to the facts.

> And peaceful protestors can also be massacred and completely fail to bring about any change Can you give an example? Every example I can think of right now that had a massacre of innocent protestors and no armed struggle either led to some change later down the road (eg. galvanizing the movement, reforms, or total collapse of the opressor), or became a major problem for the oppressor later down the track. A massacr…

Tiananmen Square. Rabaa (Egypt, 2013). Prague Spring. Some more are scattered around this Wikipedia list: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_events_named_massacres

The aftermath of a massacre comes down to the government’s willingness and ability to control the narrative and suppress further dissent. Some governments can be quite successful at this. There’s absolutely no guarantee that a massacre of protestors results in anything beyond dead protestors.

Re: Hong Kong leader to announce formal withdrawal of extradition bill

#208

Post by spacehunt » Wed, Sep 04, 2019, 4:04 PM UTC

poukofiru wrote: post #101

dragonsh wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I don't think Beijing anticipated or endorsed this. This is endorsed and approved by Beijing, she already declared the bill dead this is just a matter of wording. Legally it can be brought back as laws are always evolving and Hong Kong needs an extradition treaty with other jurisdiction including another system in its own country. For Mainland Chinese citizen the narrative will be altered, but will still be seen as…

How does Hong Kong legislation work? Do all bills need to be individual, separate bills? Or can they sneak in an unrelated bill into a more popular one?

The Rules of Procedure[0] are available online.

The bill in question is now at the Second Reading stage, specifically at the "[Reading] may be resumed on notice by the Member or public officer in charge of the bill" step. The "House Committee" debate was basically skipped.

[0] https://www.legco.gov.hk/general/english/procedur/content/pa...

Re: Hong Kong leader to announce formal withdrawal of extradition bill

#209

Post by duxup » Wed, Sep 04, 2019, 4:09 PM UTC

dirtyid wrote: post #2

I don't think Beijing anticipated or endorsed this. In context of Lams leaked resignation remarks yesterday, it looks like Lam is going rogue. She's setting herself up to be replaced via disobedience, because all signs pointed to Emergency Regulations Ordinance being invoked if protest continues. Her legacy is already ruined, but I think she doesn't have the stomach to double down that far. Beijing specifically instr…

It's not clear to me if Xi and Co wants this or not at this point.

It's possible Lam going rouge would allow Xi and Co to possibly save some face ... while giving them time to subvert the protester's cause in less obvious ways.

It is possible they simply want to back away for a bit, and deal with things more quietly.

Re: Hong Kong leader to announce formal withdrawal of extradition bill

#210

Post by beat » Wed, Sep 04, 2019, 4:11 PM UTC

StreamBright wrote: post #169

i_am_proteus wrote: post #143

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Elections are meaningless if the public can't decide who runs.

You are too hard on US elections. People wanted Bernie and got HRC.

More people wanted HRC, though. That's how elections work. It doesn't mean the loser is unpopular or broadly disliked. It means there's another candidate voters like better (or dislike less).