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Tesla meets self-imposed deadline for Model 3, rolls out 5000 cars in a week

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Re: Tesla meets self-imposed deadline for Model 3, rolls out 5000 cars in a week

#201

Post by technofiend »

chrisper wrote: post #4

Does quality match the quantity here? I remember Tesla having lots of quality issues (misaligned doors etc)

That plus the fact that Tesla doesn't have a dealership system to distribute the repair load and parts will be going to new cars if current Tesla owner complaints are any indicator and at least for me there is no way I'd buy a Hail Mary car built in 2018. Give him time to work out reliably making 5k cars per week then sure, but I think you're still somewhat in an early adopter phase buying a Model 3 right now. If I had to buy one tomorrow I'd go for a used S.

Re: Tesla meets self-imposed deadline for Model 3, rolls out 5000 cars in a week

#202

Post by Fins »

ArtWomb wrote: post #5

Finally got to drive Model 3 yesterday. A friend received his car a few days ago and let me try it on some suburban streets. Nothing fancy. But I did take it for a mini "drag race" against another buddy's Porsche 911. Again this was on a residential tree-lined street with kids playing outside. Not exactly fast and furious. But it definitely kept pace that first eighth of a mile ;) In my humble opinion it outclasses a…

Sorry, but even model S will not outclass any of these on the interior. A 10 years old A4... maybe.

Which does not stop it from being greatly popular with "urban commuting professionals" but by being a better car.

Re: Tesla meets self-imposed deadline for Model 3, rolls out 5000 cars in a week

#203

Post by _Microft »

grizzles wrote: post #153
Maro wrote: post #141

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> When it was clear they would miss again, they put up a third production line in a canvas tent, which the NYT quoted as "never heard anything like this ever" using what Musk tweeted as "scrap we had in warehouses" to build the cars. I'm a software guy. Can somebody explain to me how you can build a high-tech auto production line from "scrap"?

I saw a drone video inside the tent, it looks mostly like service bays inside like you'd find at a small local car place that uses hand jacks. A mix of lift + non lift bays is common in any factory at the end of the line. That fits with my analysis from a few days ago: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=17397505

Interesting analysis, thanks for sharing!

Re: Tesla meets self-imposed deadline for Model 3, rolls out 5000 cars in a week

#204

Post by kjksf »

jamesgblaine wrote: post #194
panarky wrote: post #103

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Imagine that today is July 1, 2020. Looking back I see three scenarios. 1) It's clear now that the company is a sham and Musk is a snake-oil salesman. It's all smoke, mirrors, bubblegum and baling wire. After hitting 5000 cars per week one time, they never reached that level again. The company had to do a punishingly dilutive capital raise just to get 6 months more runway, and the company's market cap is now $6 billi…

Also it isn't even their battery tech, right? It's Panasonic's.

A mining company mines raw materials.

Panasonic takes those and makes battery cells. Think AA battery. That part is done as a joint venture between Panasonic and Tesla which means Tesla contributes to the design e.g. Tesla employs people doing research into battery chemistry i.e. cell level R&D. (and so does Panasonic, to be clear).

Tesla takes those battery cells and packages them into a battery modules, which they also design. That part is all Tesla.

That description doesn't adequately describes how much technology and work goes into making battery modules. Cells are an important component but it's also inverters, multiple electronics boards, software to control it all.

You can see e.g. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bNd-yJtRPhk

TL;DR: it would be grossly misleading to say that "battery tech is Panasonic". Battery cells are important but battery packs are designed and manufactured by Tesla.

Re: Tesla meets self-imposed deadline for Model 3, rolls out 5000 cars in a week

#205

Post by andromeduck »

notlob wrote: post #126
andromeduck wrote: post #109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Its discussed towards the bottom of that Bloomberg link.

Can you quote the text here? For the life of me I can’t find the section you’re referencing. I’ve heard the “timing production to match tax credit” thing before and it doesn’t make sense to me, hence why I’m trying to track down the primary source.

It's under Hyperdrive Tesla Production Blog, Friday June 22, 2018: "The $366 Million Subsidy Play, Part 2" as well as "Tesla's 200K Strategy".

tl;dr they'd basically benefit from an additional 336M in government subsidies if they delay recording their 200k'th sale to July 1 instead of June 30.

Re: Tesla meets self-imposed deadline for Model 3, rolls out 5000 cars in a week

#206

Post by andromeduck »

notlob wrote: post #163
njarboe wrote: post #145

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The way the tax credit works is that a car company's customers get $7500 US tax credit for the first 200k Tesla type electric cars. Then begins the phase out. First the $7500 tax credit remains for the rest of the quarter when the 200k US sales was hit and the following quarter (so between 3 and 6 months). Then the tax credit goes in half for 2 quarters and then 1/4 the original for another 2 quarters. Seems strange…

> > > They timed production to maximize federal tax credits for US consumers. This is what is confusing me: if the credits are timed to domestic sales (so international sales don’t affect the timing of the tax credit phase out) what does this have to do with production?

It doesn't.

Re: Tesla meets self-imposed deadline for Model 3, rolls out 5000 cars in a week

#207

Post by jayjay71 »

manicdee wrote: post #160
ambicapter wrote: post #133

Earlier quoted context omitted.

52 * 150 * 35,000 = 273M in revenue.

52 * 4750 * 35,000 = $8.6B in revenue. You're quibbling over a rounding error.

3% is not a rounding error. There are industries with smaller profit margins than that.

Re: Tesla meets self-imposed deadline for Model 3, rolls out 5000 cars in a week

#208

Post by chemmail »

Elon may have did this the wrong way. He should have released the 2020 Roadster first, price it at a lux $500k, beat the snot out of every hypercar out there. Get the Semi out, make actual money, then lose money on every Model 3, but have a subscription service to have monthly income. Kind of how Amazon loses money on the thing people mostly use it for, selling physical stuff, but makes money everywhere else.

Re: Tesla meets self-imposed deadline for Model 3, rolls out 5000 cars in a week

#209

Post by WheelsAtLarge »

eptcyka wrote: post #196
WheelsAtLarge wrote: post #181

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Musk is certainly a self-promoter in the vein of P.T. Barnum. It's gotten to the point of irritation. But you can't deny he's changed the car industry. A company's true function is to benefit society. Tesla has done that, so he gets a win from me. He's done it by taking chances and thinking outside the box. The tent is an example. Most companies would have given up but they did not. 20 years from now Tesla might not…

> A company's true function is to benefit society. Could you elaborate on how did you come to said conclusion?

Sure, at its basics, society has needs, known or unknown, good or bad so companies are created to fill the needs. Companies survive if they reach enough people with their solution.

Sure there are ways to manipulate needs but at its basics companies are supposed to benefit society by filling those needs.

We are fed the idea that companies are created to profit the investors but profits are a side effect of meeting needs.

Re: Tesla meets self-imposed deadline for Model 3, rolls out 5000 cars in a week

#210

Post by ericcumbee »

jjeaff wrote: post #164
austenallred wrote: post #127

Earlier quoted context omitted.

OK, sure, but call it 4850 of 5000 when everyone says there wasn't a prayer of making it is pretty remarkable. Call it 97% of the way. The fact that they built out a tent and hustled 24/7 to hit the goal is impressive to me. Overall it's pretty classic Tesla/Musk. Predict the absolutely impossible, get 97% of the way there, and regardless of how you slice it the only thing that's not impressive is the facxt that they…

>I see Teslas everywhere now. Meaning you live in one of 4 coastal cities. Teslas are exceedingly rare everywhere but the wealthiest cities.

I live in a small state University town in South Georgia and there are at least 3 model S and a model x running around time.
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