What Needs to Happen Before Electric Cars Take Over the World • Hacker News Board

Re: What Needs to Happen Before Electric Cars Take Over the World

#201

Post by cmrdporcupine » Tue, Dec 19, 2017, 1:27 PM UTC

wojt_eu wrote: post #45

_greim_ wrote: post #15

> Drivers will have to shed their attachment to the sound, smell and feel of gas-powered engines. I for one will not feel the least bit sad when continuous, smooth acceleration becomes the norm, and lurchy, awkward automatic transmissions fade into distant memory. I'll probably feel slightly nostalgic about the sound and smell of fuel-burning cars someday, but it won't inform my buying choices in the slightest.

I already feel nostalgic about gas-powered cars, their place is alongside steam locomotives as movie props and tourist attractions. Imagine people doing gas-punk cosplay in a couple of decades.

I bought a couple 1980s Saab 900 turbos to restore. After driving my Volt for months just the act of turning a key and hearing an engine roar feels anachronistic, very retro.

I think a small number of ICE cars will stick around as a kind of hobby classic experience. A small minority of people will want the experience of having dinosaur juice explode in front of their feet just like some people like to use Super 8 cameras.

Still, the ICE backup on my Volt has been kind of handy and pleasant to have when it dropped below -10C here last week...

Re: What Needs to Happen Before Electric Cars Take Over the World

#202

Post by Retric » Tue, Dec 19, 2017, 1:27 PM UTC

smudgymcscmudge wrote: post #196

sandworm101 wrote: post #154

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Every EV owner in my area seems to also own a gas car too. My landlord commutes in an EV but his wife has a normal suv for all the kid stuff. (Im in BC where long higheay trips are very much the norm.) EVs are fine if you can afford to keep a second vehicle to cover all the things they cannot do.

I know two couples who have replaced one of their ICEs with Nissan Leafs. Now one of them is economically commuting in an EV daily and they retain the ability to take road trips in their partner’s car. But I don’t see a reasonable way for a single person to have only an EV in my area either. There’s just too much >50 miles away.

250 mile EV's can make 500 mile day trips just fine as long as you can use a charging network. IC's are better if you're doing that every weekend, but most people don't drive over 200 miles a day very often.

Re: What Needs to Happen Before Electric Cars Take Over the World

#203

Post by cmrdporcupine » Tue, Dec 19, 2017, 1:28 PM UTC

farrisbris wrote: post #89

wojt_eu wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I already feel nostalgic about gas-powered cars, their place is alongside steam locomotives as movie props and tourist attractions. Imagine people doing gas-punk cosplay in a couple of decades.

I really really really do not share that nostalgia. I live in a city center and the only amount significant source of noise is from cars/buses. Sure you will have sirens or people shouting every now and again, but there is a constant buzzing sound from motors that goes on throughout the day and most of the night. I moved from a relatively quiet neighbourhood to where i am a few years ago, and the sound of motors ( an…

Oh hell, I live rural, and it's just as bad. Constant industrial type noises from neighbour's skid steers, trucks, tractors, snowmobiles, quads, and dirt bikes.

Re: What Needs to Happen Before Electric Cars Take Over the World

#204

Post by Cthulhu_ » Tue, Dec 19, 2017, 1:29 PM UTC

f_allwein wrote: post #113

How about: We need to shift from individual car ownership to more public transport? Sure it will be great if cars turn electric, but that does not solve issues like crowded streets etc. This would be partly addressed if cars were self driving and shared, i.e. would spend less time standing around unused. Nevertheless, I assume (=don't have data) that public transport would be much more efficient than electric cars in…

A few problems with more public transit. First, public transport is not door-to-door; for my commute atm, public transit would take 2 hours (for a 60 km distance), more if there's a hitch on the way. It'll pretty much always take longer because you're stuck on one or multiple schedules.

The other problem in my country is that the public transit networks are already at maximum capacity - train network in particular is struggling. There's pushes to spread people out more, away from rush hour, but employers and the people themselves have to be okay with that too. But yeah, public transit has a maximum capacity, just like roads do.

And of course in the US, the public transit network is substandard, and getting it up to par will take a huge investment - cities will need to be uplifted, etc. But in the US the problem is more political - there's no business that wants to invest billions in a public transit network. And if a government sets it up people will complain that their tax dollars (all three of them) go to things they don't make use of. It's a cultural issue there. The US - and SF in particular - could be in the forefront of public transit for everyone, but nope, muh government.

Full rant mode engaged: The US is the richest country in the world with some of the richest people in the world, but it's not being invested in basics like access to transportation, health care and education to make quality of life for its inhabitants better.

that escalated, sorry.

Re: What Needs to Happen Before Electric Cars Take Over the World

#205

Post by audunw » Tue, Dec 19, 2017, 1:29 PM UTC

f_allwein wrote: post #113

How about: We need to shift from individual car ownership to more public transport? Sure it will be great if cars turn electric, but that does not solve issues like crowded streets etc. This would be partly addressed if cars were self driving and shared, i.e. would spend less time standing around unused. Nevertheless, I assume (=don't have data) that public transport would be much more efficient than electric cars in…

In Norway we have a common expression: "Ja takk, begge deler". When given a choice between two things that are implied mutually exclusive, it means "Yes, I'll take both please".

Maybe that's why we have more EVs per capita than anywhere else, and are still investing heavily in improving public transportation. You can do both.

You can even do electric buses. Oslo just got deliveries of its first ones.

I think we'll start to see many smaller self-driving buses, and that more people will prefer these over driving. I know I would. The only reason I prefer driving to work right now is that I have to switch from bus to train when doing public transportation. I don't get enough time in one vehicle to calm down and read something. If it was more or less direct, I'd prefer it, even if I had to walk a bit longer (I consider that a benefit actually). Buses have dedicated lanes here, so it shouldn't take much more time even with a couple of stops along the way.

But that's the future. There are still millions of personal cars sold, and will be for a long time forward. These needs to be EV. Besides, EVs technology will facilitate the development of these self-driving buses. It's easier and safer for a bus to charge itself, than to fuel itself. It's also easier to test self-driving tech in a large fleet of smaller cars.

Re: What Needs to Happen Before Electric Cars Take Over the World

#206

Post by cmrdporcupine » Tue, Dec 19, 2017, 1:30 PM UTC

chrisper wrote: post #56

_greim_ wrote: post #15

> Drivers will have to shed their attachment to the sound, smell and feel of gas-powered engines. I for one will not feel the least bit sad when continuous, smooth acceleration becomes the norm, and lurchy, awkward automatic transmissions fade into distant memory. I'll probably feel slightly nostalgic about the sound and smell of fuel-burning cars someday, but it won't inform my buying choices in the slightest.

>continuous, smooth acceleration becomes the norm, This was achieved with CVT (Continous Variable Transmission). I did not like to drive one, but it already exists. Also I currently have a car with 7 gear automatic transmission and the acceleration is pretty smooth. >lurchy, awkward automatic transmissions fade into distant memory. Again, newer automatic transmission aren't bad anymore.

CVT or many-gear auto transmission is nothing like the experience of direct drive EV.

CVTs are mostly gutless because gas engines are gutless except at a very narrow RPM band.

The 0-60 times on EVs are impressive. But it's their 0-30 ranges that are absolutely mindblowing. My little boring Volt easily zips past even 'muscle' cars straight off from a red light (of course they easily catch up later, but I don't care)

Re: What Needs to Happen Before Electric Cars Take Over the World

#207

Post by Cthulhu_ » Tue, Dec 19, 2017, 1:31 PM UTC

ckastner wrote: post #3

> Price of an electric car powertrain: $16,000 > Price of a conventional car powertrain: $6,000 Can anyone provide a better source for this? This is exactly the opposite of what I expected. I thought electric powertrains had far fewer (in the hundreds, even) moving parts? Edit: Coffee hasn't kicked in yet. As user analognoise points out, this is literally answered by the sentence that follows the above: How soon that…

The article doesn't have a headline that takes total cost of ownership into account. I mean annual oil change, the odd broken alternator (probably also a problem in electric cars), filters, distribution drive / chain, and a ton of extra moving parts that all need maintenance.

Mind you I wonder if electric cars can get a million miles out of them, like well maintained conventional cars can do.

Re: What Needs to Happen Before Electric Cars Take Over the World

#208

Post by cmrdporcupine » Tue, Dec 19, 2017, 1:31 PM UTC

squarefoot wrote: post #54

_greim_ wrote: post #15

> Drivers will have to shed their attachment to the sound, smell and feel of gas-powered engines. I for one will not feel the least bit sad when continuous, smooth acceleration becomes the norm, and lurchy, awkward automatic transmissions fade into distant memory. I'll probably feel slightly nostalgic about the sound and smell of fuel-burning cars someday, but it won't inform my buying choices in the slightest.

"I'll probably feel slightly nostalgic about the sound and smell of fuel-burning cars someday" I don't know about the smell, but once people realize how dangerous is a car you can't hear coming, they will start adding some sound, and what's better than a traditional car sound? The sound will be easily faked using samples from well known engines played according to the current speed by transducers under the car. There…

All EVs actually are currently required to have a noise added, unfortunately. My Volt makes a weird whirring that you can't hear inside the cabin, but can outside. The Leaf has an odd noise, and even has a backup 'beep beep' like you'd normally hear on tractors or bobcats, etc (tho quieter).

Re: What Needs to Happen Before Electric Cars Take Over the World

#209

Post by mtgx » Tue, Dec 19, 2017, 1:33 PM UTC

dragonwriter wrote: post #199

dalbasal wrote: post #186

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agreed. It's about prices Musk realized the economics and decided (best underpants plan ever) to start at the enthusiast-luxury end with the sports car. But, his crucial point was that for people already in the luxury market, he'd be able to quickly drop the enthusiast requirement. The cost of batteries that compete with a fuel tank on range does not scale with the rest of the car. Tesla now competes on a side-by-s…

> Subsidies don't make sense anymore. The innovation has been stimulated already. Debatable; subsidies can make sense for other reasons (internalizing externalities unrelated to innovation) than stimulating innovation.

Agreed. Subsidies should continue, but I would couple them with a carbon tax in a few years, when there are many more EV options on the market, the prices have been lowered, and there are EV chargers everywhere.

Then introduce a large carbon tax and launch a "dump your ICE car for an EV" program for lower income people where they can get an half the car subsidized but the EV can't cost more than $20,000. Use the large carbon tax to fund these subsidies. To increase the effectiveness of the program say that by 2030 ICE cars will be banned in cities and no new sales of ICE cars will be allowed.

Re: What Needs to Happen Before Electric Cars Take Over the World

#210

Post by junkcollector » Tue, Dec 19, 2017, 1:37 PM UTC

explainplease wrote: post #149

craigds wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We'll find a way though, after some pain. Maybe we'll just become less mobile, and be okay with that. Denser housing and more distributed community hubs seem the obvious solution. The harder question is how would you get from here to a world without cars in the first place. There are some pretty massive political and social hurdles to overcome. I don't think this will happen until we basically run out of fuel, unfort…

> Maybe we'll just become less mobile, and be okay with that. This is bizarre. Is there any other technology, any other quality-of-life issue, in which people would advocate or settle for regression? Technology is advancing faster than ever before, the pace is still increasing--yet people are saying that we should go back to not having personal vehicles, not travelling much... What's going on here?

Most discussions centered on environmental concerns boil down to accepting a massive quality of life reduction for most of the world's population. It is usually colored by someone who thinks it wouldn't impact themselves much and that the world would be better if more people just lived like them i.e. in dense urban environments. This argument at least is not predicated on the need to kill a bunch of people such as you commonly hear in biotech or agriculture discussions.