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Massive permafrost thaw documented in Canada, portending huge carbon release

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Re: Massive permafrost thaw documented in Canada, portending huge carbon release

#201

Post by CreRecombinase »

raverbashing wrote: post #189
FrozenVoid wrote: post #181

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Actually, escalating death of plankton and growth of anoxic zones are more important: it will cause systemic collapse of marine food chain. Storm damage can be mitigated(e.g. netherlands) http://www.sciencealert.com/ocean-oxygen-levels-are-dropping... https://phys.org/news/2017-02-black-sea-short-term-oxygen-lo... https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/jan/31/bay-beng...

Well, it's evolutionary pressure in action. Plankton will survive, and the ones who survive will have more food available Algae will probably avail of the increased CO2 concentrations as well.

That's not how that works. CO2 is not a limiting reagent in photosynthesis.

Re: Massive permafrost thaw documented in Canada, portending huge carbon release

#202

Post by dredmorbius »

tzs wrote: post #170
RandyRanderson wrote: post #133

Sea level rise is neither the largest nor most immediate threat of climate change. Water happens to have one of the highest, and I would argue, the most important thermal capacity of all the compounds we're likely to come into contact with daily. Water has about 5-10x the heat capacity of most common things and so heating up the all the oceans by say 2 degs average is an ENORMOUS amount of energy. Why is this importa…

> Far before ppl are forced from the shores by rising waters they will be forced from the shores by massive, frequent, destructive storms that, instead of say destroying 1/1000 homes, will destroy 1/100. Eventually it will be economically non-viable to live in storm-prone zones. It's possible to build homes that are much more resistant to storms than current homes [1], although they cost more than the currently most…

Damage affects not just houses, but all structures: gardens, landscaping, freshwater and sewage lines, electrical and internet service, roads, etc.

With time, you're also looking at massively increased erosion. It's hard to have a house if there's no land under it at all.

Re: Massive permafrost thaw documented in Canada, portending huge carbon release

#203

Post by dredmorbius »

jraines wrote: post #124
jamesblonde wrote: post #119

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is a lot of ignorance regarding what 5-8 degree warming means. The worst case scenario (and that is the only one we should be concerned with!) is a global mass extinction event. We've already had 5 of them - one of which was due to runaway greenhouse warming - https://cosmosmagazine.com/palaeontology/big-five-extinction... We cannot be sure we'll stop at 5 degrees or 8 degrees. After that we will have a mass ex…

How would every last human die? I mean, sure, millions or even billions . . . but not one human surviving with all the resources and resourcefulness we have at our disposal?

Previous instances of warming have seen all land mammals of greater than, IIRC, 10 kg, gone extinct.

Widespread ecosystemic impacts can be profound, and difficult to model.

Re: Massive permafrost thaw documented in Canada, portending huge carbon release

#204

Post by owenversteeg »

dflock wrote: post #115
owenversteeg wrote: post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So I am Dutch and currently living in the Netherlands. I think it's something the Netherlands will definitely survive. As a general rule of thumb, a country can spend 50% of GDP for a few years - and end up OK afterwards - on something that's threatening the survival of the nation. The US spent 40% of GDP on WWII, for example. The Dutch GDP is almost a trillion dollars. I think that half a trillion dollars is enough…

Yes, Bagladesh is screwed, but if that [Clathrate gun]( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clathrate_gun_hypothesis ) goes off, we're looking at ~60m of sea level rise. The Low Countries aren't going to do very well at that point, either.

So even if 60m of sea level rise happened - and most of the Netherlands could not be saved - I still think some portions would be OK. Amersfoort, Arnhem, Apeldoorn, Nijmegen and Enschede (as well of Maastricht of course) would be saveable with creative water engineering. Combined, you could probably fit several million people there, easily enough to maintain the Netherlands as its own country (again, this is apocalypse-level planning here.)

Additionally, the rest of the displaced millions are mostly very highly educated, wealthy, English-speaking people who are allowed to live and work anywhere in the EU. Compare this to Bangladesh.

Re: Massive permafrost thaw documented in Canada, portending huge carbon release

#205

Post by marknutter »

fictioncircle wrote: post #156
brokenmasonjars wrote: post #132

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This would only allow them to win more elections and retain power for longer. Instead include them in discussions; try to socialize them. Don't talk down to them as they will move away from the discussion and purposefully remain ignorant and vote on such feelings of wrong and vengeance that emerges from ridiculing them. Have we learned nothing from Trump's victory? If so, get ready for two terms.

> This would only allow them to win more elections and retain power for longer. Instead include them in discussions; try to socialize them. Don't talk down to them as they will move away from the discussion and purposefully remain ignorant and vote on such feelings of wrong and vengeance that emerges from ridiculing them. Have we learned nothing from Trump's victory? If so, get ready for two terms. The problem isn't…

Are you listening to yourself?

Re: Massive permafrost thaw documented in Canada, portending huge carbon release

#206

Post by balabaster »

dleslie wrote: post #129
jraines wrote: post #124

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How would every last human die? I mean, sure, millions or even billions . . . but not one human surviving with all the resources and resourcefulness we have at our disposal?

Oxygen and nutrition; we can't even get self-sustaining bio domes working now, despite decades of attempts. We could solve the problem, sure, but it's a race against time while society is crumbling, in this scenario.

You'd be surprised what we could get to work if the survival of humanity depended upon it. You'd better believe we'd get self sustaining bio domes working tout de suite if that were the only way to ensure our survival.

Re: Massive permafrost thaw documented in Canada, portending huge carbon release

#207

Post by pas »

dmix wrote: post #40
AaronFriel wrote: post #28

As no one has mentioned it in the comments, the belief that this is concerning is related to the "Clathrate gun hypothesis"[1]. Essentially, low temperatures have allowed vast quantities of methane and carbon dioxide containing compounds to accumulate for millennia. If the temperatures rise above a critical threshold, a positive feedback loop would exist between temperatures and global warming. Positive feedback loop…

Interesting. Can anyone recommend a book that gives a good overview of current climate science? And what hypothetical scenarios may exist in the future?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RffPSrRpq_g

Re: Massive permafrost thaw documented in Canada, portending huge carbon release

#208

Post by fjarlq »

abtinf wrote: post #135
RandyRanderson wrote: post #133

Sea level rise is neither the largest nor most immediate threat of climate change. Water happens to have one of the highest, and I would argue, the most important thermal capacity of all the compounds we're likely to come into contact with daily. Water has about 5-10x the heat capacity of most common things and so heating up the all the oceans by say 2 degs average is an ENORMOUS amount of energy. Why is this importa…

You claim that the scenario you describe is happening "NOW". Could you provide a citation for that claim? Or even better, are people betting money that it is true, as might be represented with a greater-than-inflation rise in premiums for flood insurance, home owners insurance, or umbrella insurance in the affected geographies?

One indicator is the trend of increased tidal flooding on the US east coast over the past few decades:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/09/04/science/globa...

Re: Massive permafrost thaw documented in Canada, portending huge carbon release

#209

Post by [deleted] »

brokenmasonjars wrote: post #159
fictioncircle wrote: post #156

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> This would only allow them to win more elections and retain power for longer. Instead include them in discussions; try to socialize them. Don't talk down to them as they will move away from the discussion and purposefully remain ignorant and vote on such feelings of wrong and vengeance that emerges from ridiculing them. Have we learned nothing from Trump's victory? If so, get ready for two terms. The problem isn't…

I never said it would be easy. All I'm saying is to shout them down and ridicule them is going to make the problem worse. Socializing is a good first time. Keep talking to them. Try not to lose your cool. It's hard.. it's really hard. I know people who are Trump fans and are caught up in one aspect that they like about him. Be it ant-immigration or whatever. I do my best to make them think I'm actively accepting thei…

[deleted]

Re: Massive permafrost thaw documented in Canada, portending huge carbon release

#210

Post by norea-armozel »

brokenmasonjars wrote: post #132
dleslie wrote: post #130

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, absolutely.

This would only allow them to win more elections and retain power for longer. Instead include them in discussions; try to socialize them. Don't talk down to them as they will move away from the discussion and purposefully remain ignorant and vote on such feelings of wrong and vengeance that emerges from ridiculing them. Have we learned nothing from Trump's victory? If so, get ready for two terms.

At some point, they need to be cut out of the discussion which is why I support taking private initiatives to stave off the worse of AGW without their support. So if it means they get the White House, they can have it. I'd rather have a sustainable ecosystem and set of permanent and private institutions that supplant theirs to maintain that ecosystem. When a significant portion of private power isn't bending a knee to the old order that folks like Stephen Bannon (and to some extent Hillary Clinton) continue to worship then maybe we'll become a more mature civilization in which large scale issues like AGW aren't held hostage by the posturings of politicians.
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