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Massive permafrost thaw documented in Canada, portending huge carbon release

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Re: Massive permafrost thaw documented in Canada, portending huge carbon release

#161

Post by pdm55 »

Udik wrote: post #149
theseadroid wrote: post #141

Earlier quoted context omitted.

https://climate.nasa.gov/effects/ >The intensity, frequency and duration of North Atlantic hurricanes, as well as the frequency of the strongest (Category 4 and 5) hurricanes, have all increased since the early 1980s. The relative contributions of human and natural causes to these increases are still uncertain. Hurricane-associated storm intensity and rainfall rates are projected to increase as the climate continues…

Bad information. From the noaa website [0], a more scientific assessment reports: "It is premature to conclude that human activities–and particularly greenhouse gas emissions that cause global warming–have already had a detectable impact on Atlantic hurricane or global tropical cyclone activity." So no detectable increase (even statistically, which I consider to be a much weaker requirement than actual subjective exp…

Scientific article examining the downward trend in Australia's cyclone numbers : http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/asl2.502/full Long‐term changes in Australian tropical cyclone numbers

"Numerous data quality checks were used in this study, as noted above, and there are no known systematic errors in the observations or analyses that would be likely to produce the decreasing trend in TC #s examined here. This suggests the possibility that the downward trend may be associated with changes in environmental conditions. Studies such as Emanuel (2005) indicate that the changes in various different environmental conditions that are occurring due to anthropogenic influences are having an influence on TC activity in some regions of the world. In the Australian region, one possible physical explanation for a decreasing trend in TC #s could be a potential long-term shift in environmental conditions towards a more El Niño-like state, given that fewer TCs tend to occur in the Australian region during El Niño than La Niña conditions. Although the NIN and SOI data used here did not show a significant long-term trend, some studies suggest the possibility of a shift towards more El Niño-like conditions, relating to a possible weakening of the Walker circulation due to increasing atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations (Vecchi et al., 2006; Power and Smith, 2007; Huang et al., 2013; DiNezio et al., 2013). However, it is also noted that considerable uncertainty exists in observed changes to the Walker circulation based on reanalyses (Compo et al., 2011)."

Re: Massive permafrost thaw documented in Canada, portending huge carbon release

#162

Post by pg314 »

abtinf wrote: post #135
RandyRanderson wrote: post #133

Sea level rise is neither the largest nor most immediate threat of climate change. Water happens to have one of the highest, and I would argue, the most important thermal capacity of all the compounds we're likely to come into contact with daily. Water has about 5-10x the heat capacity of most common things and so heating up the all the oceans by say 2 degs average is an ENORMOUS amount of energy. Why is this importa…

You claim that the scenario you describe is happening "NOW". Could you provide a citation for that claim? Or even better, are people betting money that it is true, as might be represented with a greater-than-inflation rise in premiums for flood insurance, home owners insurance, or umbrella insurance in the affected geographies?

Insurance companies are taking climate change seriously, for sure. I found [1] after some quick googling.

[1] http://evanmills.lbl.gov/pubs/pdf/climate-action-insurance.p...

Re: Massive permafrost thaw documented in Canada, portending huge carbon release

#163

Post by pg314 »

jraines wrote: post #124
jamesblonde wrote: post #119

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is a lot of ignorance regarding what 5-8 degree warming means. The worst case scenario (and that is the only one we should be concerned with!) is a global mass extinction event. We've already had 5 of them - one of which was due to runaway greenhouse warming - https://cosmosmagazine.com/palaeontology/big-five-extinction... We cannot be sure we'll stop at 5 degrees or 8 degrees. After that we will have a mass ex…

How would every last human die? I mean, sure, millions or even billions . . . but not one human surviving with all the resources and resourcefulness we have at our disposal?

There are more than enough nukes out there to do the job. Famines and massive numbers of refugees will almost inevitably lead to wars...

Re: Massive permafrost thaw documented in Canada, portending huge carbon release

#164

Post by adt2bt »

Udik wrote: post #150
aaron-lebo wrote: post #138

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Hurricanes? New Orleans will never recover. That same season saw a couple other storms that were just as strong but luckily missed worst case scenarios. I wouldn't be shocked if cat five hurricanes became pretty common in a couple of decades due to warmer waters, and one or two of those a year would devastate coastal economies. But I'm not a weatherman...

And these statements are based on what? There have been some major earthquakes around the world in the last 20 years, are they also caused by global warming? Do you project an increase in them in the next 20 years? Here's a page with good, updated information about global warming and hurricanes: https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/global-warming-and-hurricanes/

Goodness, that was a ridiculously condescending comment considering you could have just provided the NOAA link and had a positive discussion instead.

Re: Massive permafrost thaw documented in Canada, portending huge carbon release

#165

Post by pg314 »

greggman wrote: post #84
hackuser wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> the common sentiment is 'the best time to take action was 40 years ago. The absolute limit was 20 years ago. There's no stopping it now My impression is that this is the latest fallback position intended to stop/delay us from acting (I don't know that the parent commenter intends it that way; this isn't a criticism of them). In rough order: 1) There is no global warming 2) There is global warming, but it's not caus…

I'm curious what you expect people to do and what you're doing yourself. I worry about climate change and so do most of my friends but I see ZERO action on any of our parts. Example: Nearly all my friends FLEW to GDC this week, many of them that's a HUGE amount of CO2 added to the atmosphere just so we can have fun, network and party. Then we go to BBQ and hamburger restaurants and eat lots of beef which we're told w…

I've become vegetarian, and have never owned a car. I've still got my 8 year old Nokia instead of buying the latest iPhone. My shoes are 10 years old (but well maintained and high quality, so you wouldn't be able to tell, except that they are not the latest fashion).

It's your decision to keep ignoring the problem. Nobody else taking action does not absolve you from your responsibility.

As a bonus, scaling down your consumption means your money goes much further. Early retirement (think thirties), is not impossible. If you're interested in these ideas, I've enjoyed reading [1].

[1] http://www.mrmoneymustache.com/

Re: Massive permafrost thaw documented in Canada, portending huge carbon release

#167

Post by ansible »

jamesblonde wrote: post #119
idoh wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The feedback loop peaks out at a global temperature increase of 5-8 degrees celsius, if the models and past events are to be believed: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paleocene–Eocene_Thermal_Maxim...

There is a lot of ignorance regarding what 5-8 degree warming means. The worst case scenario (and that is the only one we should be concerned with!) is a global mass extinction event. We've already had 5 of them - one of which was due to runaway greenhouse warming - https://cosmosmagazine.com/palaeontology/big-five-extinction... We cannot be sure we'll stop at 5 degrees or 8 degrees. After that we will have a mass ex…

The world is already going through a mass extinction event. By the destruction of habitat and direct hunting, species are going extinct at an alarming rate.

Re: Massive permafrost thaw documented in Canada, portending huge carbon release

#168

Post by averagewall »

RandyRanderson wrote: post #133

Sea level rise is neither the largest nor most immediate threat of climate change. Water happens to have one of the highest, and I would argue, the most important thermal capacity of all the compounds we're likely to come into contact with daily. Water has about 5-10x the heat capacity of most common things and so heating up the all the oceans by say 2 degs average is an ENORMOUS amount of energy. Why is this importa…

What's wrong with migration? People do that anyway when they move out of their parent's house and into their own, often in another city. You describe storms becoming more frequent, which is something insurance companies will see a mile away and increase premiums or refuse to provide cover for. That will reduce the value of property in those areas and property buyers will go further inland instead. It sounds like some poor property investor might be left holding the bag if he doesn't sell his coastal city building in time. Instead of feeling sad for his loss, perhaps trust that he knows what he's doing and will sell it in time so the migration happens gradually and for incremental economic reasons rather than as a sudden emergency.

Your energy argument doesn't add up. Increasing the thermal energy of everything in a system doesn't make it able to do more work (violent storms). Storms are driven by heat flowing from hot to cold. Not from hot to also-hot. If you show that temperature differences between parts of the ocean/atmosphere are going to become more extreme, then more severe storms would make sense. That could be caused by cold things getting colder or hot things getting hotter.

Re: Massive permafrost thaw documented in Canada, portending huge carbon release

#169

Post by XorNot »

jfoutz wrote: post #53
idoh wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The feedback loop peaks out at a global temperature increase of 5-8 degrees celsius, if the models and past events are to be believed: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paleocene–Eocene_Thermal_Maxim...

2c seems pretty bad. I guess 5 means no coral reefs, smaller rivers, smaller Antarctica. Permanent northwest passage is a consolation prize, I guess.

6 degrees renders large areas of the topics uninhabitable by humans. As in: extended periods where 100% humidity + outside temperature above human body temperature.

On any given day, absent technology, this will kill you in a matter of hours.

Indonesia (100+ million people) is a climate area that would experience this).

Re: Massive permafrost thaw documented in Canada, portending huge carbon release

#170

Post by tzs »

RandyRanderson wrote: post #133

Sea level rise is neither the largest nor most immediate threat of climate change. Water happens to have one of the highest, and I would argue, the most important thermal capacity of all the compounds we're likely to come into contact with daily. Water has about 5-10x the heat capacity of most common things and so heating up the all the oceans by say 2 degs average is an ENORMOUS amount of energy. Why is this importa…

> Far before ppl are forced from the shores by rising waters they will be forced from the shores by massive, frequent, destructive storms that, instead of say destroying 1/1000 homes, will destroy 1/100. Eventually it will be economically non-viable to live in storm-prone zones.

It's possible to build homes that are much more resistant to storms than current homes [1], although they cost more than the currently most popular designs. Wouldn't a shift to such homes keep it viable to live in those storm-prone zones?

[1] http://www.deltechomes.com/learn-more/hurricane-resistance/

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