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NHTSA’s full investigation into Tesla’s Autopilot shows 40% crash rate reduction

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Re: NHTSA’s full investigation into Tesla’s Autopilot shows 40% crash rate reduction

#201

Post by robotjosh »

stale2002 wrote: post #6

Oh, hey, will you look at that. The imperfect, incomplete, beta, level 2 self driving cars that were supposed to be the "dangerous" area of self driving are ALREADY better than human drivers. Can we stop the politics and deploy all the real self driving cars to the road immediately, since the government has proven that even the shitty variety is safer than humans?

The real safety payoff will be when manual driving is banned on public roads. We will have to fight the "freedom is doing whatever I want" people who are going to defend the right to manually drive on public roads.

Re: NHTSA’s full investigation into Tesla’s Autopilot shows 40% crash rate reduction

#202

Post by randomdata »

celticninja wrote: post #199
randomdata wrote: post #192

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You don't agree that wealthy people tend to be older? Even though time is the easiest way to increase wealth (compound interest is your friend). Or you don't agree that older people are less educated? Even thought the data suggests otherwise.

I didnt say that and I am unsure how you inferred it from what I said. OP linked wealth with being better educated, he also inferred that better educated and wealthy meant they would be better drivers. However as others have pointed out there are studies showing that wealthier individuals make worse drivers (the studies don't appear factor in education level and wealth is determined by brand of vehicle). I disagreed…

> OP linked wealth with being better educated

Doesn't that contradict what you said before: "Are you assuming the more wealthy owners have lower levels of education?" Although I think it is quite reasonable to assume that the wealthy do have less education, statistically speaking, give the nature of wealth and the more recent focus of educating the populace.

Heck, when I graduated high school in 2000, only 64% of us did graduate. The graduation rate for high school, less than two decades later, is now over 80%. That's substantial growth over what is a fairly short period of time, all things considered. And the rate gets worse the further back you go.

> I disagreed with OPs sentiment that fewer wealthy (and therefore worse educated - in OPs opinion) drivers would result in more crashes.

That was my misunderstanding. I thought you meant that you did not agree with the sentiment that wealthy people could be less educated. Thanks for the clarification.

Re: NHTSA’s full investigation into Tesla’s Autopilot shows 40% crash rate reduction

#203

Post by [deleted] »

stale2002 wrote: post #6

Oh, hey, will you look at that. The imperfect, incomplete, beta, level 2 self driving cars that were supposed to be the "dangerous" area of self driving are ALREADY better than human drivers. Can we stop the politics and deploy all the real self driving cars to the road immediately, since the government has proven that even the shitty variety is safer than humans?

[deleted]

Re: NHTSA’s full investigation into Tesla’s Autopilot shows 40% crash rate reduction

#204

Post by [deleted] »

marcosdumay wrote: post #168
laichzeit0 wrote: post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Oh jeez. So what if it's 10 years away? Even if it's 20 years away it's a piss drop in terms of time. Do you remember what the Internet was like in 1994? I do. It was shit. There wasn't even Google. Forget about looking things up on your mobile, there wasn't even mobile, nevermind Internet on mobile. It's barely 20 years and the world has _completely_ changed because of it. Self-driving cars are barely at the 1994 In…

A small correction, but there were mobiles. They were huge (most people used them attached to the car), and their weight was measured in kg, but they existed :)

[deleted]

Re: NHTSA’s full investigation into Tesla’s Autopilot shows 40% crash rate reduction

#205

Post by JoeAltmaier »

robotjosh wrote: post #201
stale2002 wrote: post #6

Oh, hey, will you look at that. The imperfect, incomplete, beta, level 2 self driving cars that were supposed to be the "dangerous" area of self driving are ALREADY better than human drivers. Can we stop the politics and deploy all the real self driving cars to the road immediately, since the government has proven that even the shitty variety is safer than humans?

The real safety payoff will be when manual driving is banned on public roads. We will have to fight the "freedom is doing whatever I want" people who are going to defend the right to manually drive on public roads.

Or just the not-rich people who have old, not-autodriving cars? First-world problems I guess.

Re: NHTSA’s full investigation into Tesla’s Autopilot shows 40% crash rate reduction

#206

Post by brokenmachine »

celticninja wrote: post #164
lamontcg wrote: post #159

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Pretty certain he meant it the way I quoted it.

Ah it now makes sense, I did ask him to clarify but I just parsed in my brain when reading your reply he meant fewer wealthy (better educated drivers) as opposed to less wealthy meaning not as wealthy. Thanks for your help.

I read it as less wealthy meaning not as wealthy as well. Funny how ambiguous some sentences can be.

Re: NHTSA’s full investigation into Tesla’s Autopilot shows 40% crash rate reduction

#207

Post by DonHopkins »

celticninja wrote: post #145
DonHopkins wrote: post #109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The car should immediately pull over and shut down if it detects any activity on the driver's Twitter or Facebook feeds: Social Media Strike Out!

Would require you to link your social media accounts to your car so easily avoided.

Entice drivers to link to their social media accounts by offering features like automatically tweeting a photo of anyone you honk your horn at, and updating an online leader board of top speeds driven along every section of road.

Re: NHTSA’s full investigation into Tesla’s Autopilot shows 40% crash rate reduction

#208

Post by brokenmachine »

lamontcg wrote: post #84
Roritharr wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I really would like to know the absolute numbers for this reduction. It's really questionable if this would hold up with millions of Teslas on the road in the hands of less wealthy(probably better educated) drivers.

> wealthy (probably better educated) drivers. You mean drivers like the ones behind the wheel of all the BMWs and Audis that cut me off with no turn signals, speed, make aggressive lane changes, tailgate, and generally act like giant douches because a simple traffic ticket is nothing to their pocketbook while their time == money? Those people are going to be a hell of a lot safer behind the wheel of an autonomous (le…

Anecdotally I have a lot more near-incidents with 4WDs and little hatchback getabouts. In my experience the 4WDs have been distracted or drifting outside their lane, and the little getabouts have been tailgating and driving aggressively. Having "P" plates (1) also raises the chances massively.

Could just be the numbers of those kinds of cars in my area though.

Generally I feel that a douche can drive any type of car, and I try to drive in fear like everyone else on the road is a drunk prison escapee.

(1) provisional licence holders - new drivers (and also people who have lost their licence) have to display "P" plates for a year here (Australia).

Re: NHTSA’s full investigation into Tesla’s Autopilot shows 40% crash rate reduction

#209

Post by bluGill »

mikeash wrote: post #196
JoshTriplett wrote: post #134

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Autosteer can also change lanes, and would avoid crashes caused by missing a vehicle in a blind spot. Seems particularly useful on a busy highway, with vehicles in adjacent lanes leaving far too little following distance between each other.

If the car can detect something in the adjacent lane, then it'll give you a warning if you try to change lanes into it manually too.

My car has that - there are too many false positives for it to be useful. I most commonly hear get the warning when there are two left turn lanes and I'm in the right one (because I need to turn right at the next road). Sure there is a car to my left, if it doesn't turn left I'll hit it, but the other car would be at fault in that case.

I will admit that there have been a couple times it saw the car I was about to merge into before I did. It is not clear if I would have seen the car a moment latter anyway or not.

Re: NHTSA’s full investigation into Tesla’s Autopilot shows 40% crash rate reduction

#210

Post by bluGill »

celticninja wrote: post #146
sfifs wrote: post #102

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is the base size and confidence levels reported anywhere? I get professionally suspicious when reports publish percentage figure comparisons of rare events.

What events do you consider rare? Car crashes?

Actually you can argue that car crashes are rare. 1.2 deaths per 100 million miles is rare. (I'm not able to find statistics for accidents without deaths, but we can extrapolate)

A lot of people drive a lot of miles which is why there are a lot of crashes. So you can argue either side of this depending on how you want to twist the numbers.

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