California's skyrocketing housing costs, taxes prompt exodus of residents • Hacker News Board

Re: California's skyrocketing housing costs, taxes prompt exodus of residents

#201

Post by steffan » Thu, Jun 23, 2016, 5:15 PM UTC

tomp wrote: post #106

cubano wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The price will hit a ceiling at the exact time demand = supply, and not a moment before. A worldwide markets for these homes now exists, which means the number of people who both want and can afford them is huge, and therefore the price will rise until that condition is no longer true. Also, I believe we are again seeing signs of loan company shenanigans which, if so, will allow easy-to-game capital to continue to ch…

The "demand=supply" argument doesn't exactly explain why a foreign billionaire would want to own an appartment exactly in San Francisco. Personally, I would buy a flat in Ibiza, Barcelona or Hawaii way before even considering SF.

I suspect it is less about the “foreign billionaire” and more about the single-digit millionaires worldwide looking for an ostensibly safe place to park some money and be assured of a healthy return (or at least not a loss).

It's a self-perpetuating cycle¹: people invest in real estate; prices go up; it becomes a more attractive investment.

¹Sometimes known as a “bubble”

Re: California's skyrocketing housing costs, taxes prompt exodus of residents

#202

Post by chrisseaton » Thu, Jun 23, 2016, 5:17 PM UTC

toast0 wrote: post #199

chrisseaton wrote: post #143

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't understand (and I'm being down voted so I must be saying something stupid) but why do you care if government workers get a salary and a pension bought for them, or a bit more salary and buy their own pension? And don't most most jobs still include a pension as a standard benefit? I'd say you were in the minority if you're a full time tech worker and have no pension at all.

The problem with government pensions is that the work of today is paid for with money today and a promise of money in the future for an undeterminable number of years. Many governments have not saved prudently for their future obligations and the result is current taxes going to support past workers, which taxpayers don't appreciate when it gets extreme. In the private sector, pensions have been going away -- I've wo…

Ok, so my ignorance was that when the parents said 'pension' they didn't say that they really meant 'defined benefit pensions'.

A 401k and other defined contribution pensions are still a pension.

Re: California's skyrocketing housing costs, taxes prompt exodus of residents

#203

Post by ececconi » Thu, Jun 23, 2016, 5:17 PM UTC

brooklyndavs wrote: post #105

api wrote: post #92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've seen the "alpha cities" phenomenon explode since 2000. Where you live has become a proxy for your competence, importance, etc. I'm not convinced it's not the Internet. Google "FOMO" for a possible mechanism. The Internet makes it easy for large cities, by sheer social mass, to send out a louder cultural signal and convince everyone else they are missing something by not being there. Talk to a young midwesterner…

"Opportunity clusters in cities where there is capital available, and those tend to be the big cities where the most rich people live." Which, in 2016, is kinda crazy. One would think with the internet being geographically close to capital wouldn't matter as much. Now it matters more than ever before it seems. It's sad that the young midwesterner (hey that was me once!) has to try to "get to NYC" for the best opportu…

I work out of Chicago about a week a month. Most of my college friends live in Chicago and have very good jobs in the technology and financial industry. Couple that with being able to live in awesome parts of town without even thinking about the cost, drinks/food that are much cheaper than NYC at the high end, etc. I think it's a great place with awesome people.

Re: California's skyrocketing housing costs, taxes prompt exodus of residents

#204

Post by maxsilver » Thu, Jun 23, 2016, 5:18 PM UTC

api wrote: post #92

netcan wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not just SF. It's big cities around the world. They are drawing in more people than ever. Most have housing/transport issues that present as high cost of living. People still keep pouring in and successful cities stand out in terms of household income. Even as the internet makes geography less relevant, the competition for living in cities keeps growing.

I've seen the "alpha cities" phenomenon explode since 2000. Where you live has become a proxy for your competence, importance, etc. I'm not convinced it's not the Internet. Google "FOMO" for a possible mechanism. The Internet makes it easy for large cities, by sheer social mass, to send out a louder cultural signal and convince everyone else they are missing something by not being there. Talk to a young midwesterner…

> Talk to a young midwesterner and you will hear many whose ambition is to "get to NY," with this vague sense that magic will happen when they do. Eventually if you are not in SF or NYC you are nobody.

Speaking as a late-20's midwesterner, I don't think it's about success or "FOMO" as much as it is about lifestyle.

The Midwest doesn't have real cities (except for Chicago). You really can't have an urban lifestyle in the Midwest. The cities here simply aren't developed enough to support it, and likely never will be.

Someone from Indianapolis / Cincinnati / Milwaukee / etc might respond to try to argue that you can, or that they do. But realistically, they're kidding and everyone knows it -- it's doesn't even remotely compare to somewhere like Boston or NYC or DC or Philadelphia or San Francisco or Seattle.

That doesn't make those places bad, it's not a slight against people who want suburban or rural lifestyles. But if your the kind of person who wants an urban lifestyle, you probably won't be satisfied by anything Midwestern (sans Chicago) because that type of lifestyle simply doesn't exist here.

This is where the "get to NYC" ambition comes from, far more than any idea of success or "FOMO", in my opinion.

Re: California's skyrocketing housing costs, taxes prompt exodus of residents

#205

Post by sliverstorm » Thu, Jun 23, 2016, 5:18 PM UTC

rconti wrote: post #186

sliverstorm wrote: post #136

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's kind of the point, you can get more for less struggle elsewhere. They are giving up the wealth growth.

Right, but it glosses over the fact that they were not able to afford their lifestyle 'organically' in their new place. It only seems awesome because they're going in with huge wads of California cash.

Only if you are focusing on "wow they bought a lavish mansion with fifty acres and a stable". If they move to Ohio and buy a house- guess what, property ownership is very normal and attainable in Ohio by relatively ordinary people. Mega California bucks aren't necessary.

Re: California's skyrocketing housing costs, taxes prompt exodus of residents

#206

Post by bokglobule » Thu, Jun 23, 2016, 5:18 PM UTC

edc117 wrote: post #117

yardie wrote: post #113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I just moved back here. I can confirm. Now looking for an exit strategy.

Looking to get out as well, Broward/Miami area is overcrowded and pricey, not to mention poorly educated. Lucky enough to work for a company that will allow me to go remote - can anyone recommend a place on the east coast? (preferably warm climate)

Northern VA, DC area. Some of the best schools in the country.

Re: California's skyrocketing housing costs, taxes prompt exodus of residents

#207

Post by rconti » Thu, Jun 23, 2016, 5:19 PM UTC

abduhl wrote: post #7

overcast wrote: post #2

It's unfortunate, California is such a beautiful place. But it's turning into somewhere to visit, and not live. See you soon Sierra's!

I move around and travel a lot for work - I've lived in 4 states in the last 2 years (CO, WA, CA, TX) - and one of the universal things across all the midwest and west coast that I've found is that while most people like the weather/scenery in California EVERYONE hates people from California, except for the people in California. I've heard the saying "California would be great if it wasn't for the people" in literall…

Of course, they say this about America too....

Re: California's skyrocketing housing costs, taxes prompt exodus of residents

#208

Post by khuey » Thu, Jun 23, 2016, 5:19 PM UTC

coroutines wrote: post #180

sideband wrote: post #33

There's some sort of Stockholm syndrome prevalent among too many Bay Area residents that compels them to accept the lower quality of life. I lived there for several years until recently, and it was a surreal experience to hear others discuss the sacrifices they were making just to have a roof over their family's head, to provide a half-decent education for their children. And these were well-payed folks at the brand-…

As a California resident, I have the impression I live in the technology center of the world, that I am part of the 6th largest economy in the world, and that California is a beautiful place to live - and more importantly, that once you move out of California you will not be able to move back. Also we have Feinstein so that's... that's a joy. PS: I love it how there's a desperate need for cheap housing, and developme…

That's because nowhere near enough is approved. The US population growth rate is around 1%. If San Francisco were growing no faster than the country at large it would need to build housing for about 8500 people per year. San Francisco is currently building around 3500 homes per year.

And that's not even accounting for the massive economic boom going on here, or the surrounding municipalities which are largely doing worse on construction (cough cough Palo Alto).

Re: California's skyrocketing housing costs, taxes prompt exodus of residents

#209

Post by rconti » Thu, Jun 23, 2016, 5:20 PM UTC

zeveb wrote: post #125

California today is the United States in a decade or two: its dysfunctions are the product of decades of poor policy decisions (often, the poor decision was to have a policy in the first place) by voters and their elected officials alike. A huge problem is that people move from California to other states in order to escape Californian problems, but once they get to their new state they miss a few things about Califor…

You appear to be blaming Californians on what are probably natural tendencies of the people already living there.

Re: California's skyrocketing housing costs, taxes prompt exodus of residents

#210

Post by gumby » Thu, Jun 23, 2016, 5:21 PM UTC

The work environment is really great and I'm glad I can quickly drive out into the countryside, but the overall environment is pretty terrible: there's inadequate investment in infrastructure leading to crummy roads, crummy schools, essentially no public transport, slow internet (in Palo Alto of all places), and the like. Taxes need to go up a lot and the whole NIMBY thing has to go.

California used to be a progressive place and we are still living off that investment. But like any extractive economy we are unsustainably mining the investments of the late 1940s to the early 1970s.

I must say I really enjoy tech so the Valley is the only place for me to work. It was fun living in SF but the companies up there aren't tech focused to the same degree.