Live data from Hacker News

Letter to Obama: What the Car Industry Needs Is A Steve Jobs

techcrunch.com

21–28 of 28 posts

Re: Letter to Obama: What the Car Industry Needs Is A Steve Jobs

#21
post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The other thing Automakers haven't got yet is that like 80% of people want a cheap fuel efficient vehicle. I would rather pay $4000 for a vehicle and have nothing except a 4* safety rating than pay $20,000 have a 4* average safety rating with a bajillion gadgets all priced at like $500 for something that costs $5 max to make. Everybody on the fucking planet knows a 5 disc CD player with a line-in doesn't cost $500 to…

The numbers say otherwise. 51% of all vehicles sold in the US in December 2008 were pickups or SUVs. [1] Average vehicle sales price is $25,000 [2], despite the existence of nice cheap fuel-efficient cars like the Yaris at $12,000. Dagres' suggestion that cars should be more about electronic gadgets is wrongheaded. Cars last 10 years, gadgets are obsolete after 3. You want a car + an iPhone, the second of which you'l…

> The numbers say otherwise. 51% of all vehicles sold in the US in December 2008 were pickups or SUVs. [1] Average vehicle sales price is $25,000 [2], despite the existence of nice cheap fuel-efficient cars like the Yaris at $12,000.

Actually, the numbers don't say that.

If you only have one car, that car has to satisfy almost all of your car needs. The Yaris doesn't for a lot of people. (The Scion xB does for a lot more people.)

If you're going to buy an "extra" car for its mileage, it has to be cost less than the amount of money that you save by using it instead of your "all uses" car. A $12k extra car usually doesn't do that.

A 10mpg vehicle will use 10k gallons over 100k. A 15mpg vehicle uses 6.6k gallons. A 20mpg vehicle uses 5k gallons, 30mpg uses 3.3k, a 40mpg vehicle uses 2.5k, and a 50mpg vehicle uses 2k gallons.

At $4/g, the 10mpg vehicle's gas costs $40k, the 15mpg vehicle's gas costs $26.6k, the 20mpg vehicle's gas costs $20k, 30mpg costs $13k, the 40mpg vehicle's gas costs $10k, and the 50mpg vehicle's gas costs $8k.

Note that gas isn't the only cost - the "gas saver" extra car also has license/registration, insurance, maintenance, time value of money (the gas cost is over time while the purchase cost either isn't, or requires paying interest), etc.

So, if you're already getting 15mpg, the gas savings from an extra vehicle that gets 40mpg are considerably less than $12k.

If you're already getting 20mpg, it's even harder to save money by buying an extra vehicle.

In other words, the guy who wanted a $4k gas saver may have been at the upper end of economic sense - the "extra car to save gas" probably needs to be less than $3k.

Yes, the ability to "rent" big vehicles for occasional usage can let people have smaller "main" cars, but only if the rental cost is sufficiently low. I note that the zip car people seem to have gone the other direction. Hertz and the like charge a significant premium for big vehicles.

And the loss of flexibility is important. I can (and have) gone diving with 15 minutes notice. If I had to rent a car....

And, yes, many families have multiple vehicles. They still have to satisfy simultaneous users so the above analysis applies. (Yes, many can, and do, make do with a "big" and "medium", but that means that a 3rd vehicle to save gas must cost even less than the above suggests because they're already using the big vehicle less than their average.)

Re: Letter to Obama: What the Car Industry Needs Is A Steve Jobs

#22
post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Here in Germany we have very strong unions. The system we have here would be called communism by right-wing american standards. In Europe we call it social capitalism. With this system, we are building the best cars in the world for decades. I am sure Steve Jobs could manage a Porsche successful, within the european system.

Porsche is a low volume automaker in America so they are exempt from CAFE standards. They also only sell high margin vehicles so they can take the high labor costs. The issue is not GM being unable to build the best cars in the world (compare Corvette ZR-1 to a 911 GT2), it's the lousy way they approach CAFE standards (Aveo, Cobalt). Can Porsche design and market a car that goes 35 mpg?

> Can Porsche design and market a car that goes 35 mpg?

And costs less than $20k out the door.

VW Brazil can, but those aren't German workers.

Re: Letter to Obama: What the Car Industry Needs Is A Steve Jobs

#23
post #7

What the car industry needs is a reboot. The 1908 Ford Model T had a 4-cylinder engine, ran on 4 wheels, used gasoline, with a mileage of 20mpg. A hundred years later, the basics are still the same. Why put billions more in a dead-end industry? The government should instead invest in new ways of building cars. Like the Aptera 2e ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aptera_hybrid_car ) which is fundamentally changing the wa…

I'm #1607 on the waiting list for an Aptera. I signed up because I had complained so often that there was no electric car you could actually buy, and people kept telling me I just didn't try hard enough. So far I'm right, and I predict I'll never actually get mine. When the CEO brags that they have 45 circuit boards [1], I can already read the company's obituary. But maybe they'll pull it off, and I'll have a really…

The Aptera smacks of vaporware, with the constant delays, but I'm still guardedly excited about it--if they can hit their price target with something close to their promise, I'd make a Californian friend just to buy one.

The Mission Motors bike, on the other hand, is firmly in the Tesla roadster camp: The projected price point puts it out of the "this could save you money, eventually" category and into the "cool toy for rich eco-geeks" category. Its performance is similar to my Daytona 675's, which cost me $7500 and gets 45mpg.

Re: Letter to Obama: What the Car Industry Needs Is A Steve Jobs

#24
post #22
post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Porsche is a low volume automaker in America so they are exempt from CAFE standards. They also only sell high margin vehicles so they can take the high labor costs. The issue is not GM being unable to build the best cars in the world (compare Corvette ZR-1 to a 911 GT2), it's the lousy way they approach CAFE standards (Aveo, Cobalt). Can Porsche design and market a car that goes 35 mpg?

> Can Porsche design and market a car that goes 35 mpg? And costs less than $20k out the door. VW Brazil can, but those aren't German workers.

The different parts for computers and cars come from all over the world.

Re: Letter to Obama: What the Car Industry Needs Is A Steve Jobs

#25
post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Here in Germany we have very strong unions. The system we have here would be called communism by right-wing american standards. In Europe we call it social capitalism. With this system, we are building the best cars in the world for decades. I am sure Steve Jobs could manage a Porsche successful, within the european system.

Porsche is a low volume automaker in America so they are exempt from CAFE standards. They also only sell high margin vehicles so they can take the high labor costs. The issue is not GM being unable to build the best cars in the world (compare Corvette ZR-1 to a 911 GT2), it's the lousy way they approach CAFE standards (Aveo, Cobalt). Can Porsche design and market a car that goes 35 mpg?

But Porsche is not excempt from rigid european / german union standards. And I could have picked Audi or BMW as well and they are not low-volume by any measure.

Re: Letter to Obama: What the Car Industry Needs Is A Steve Jobs

#26
post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Can Porsche design and market a car that goes 35 mpg? And costs less than $20k out the door. VW Brazil can, but those aren't German workers.

The different parts for computers and cars come from all over the world.

Yes, but that doesn't mean that the parts come from anywhere or that they can be assembled anywhere for the same amount of money.

Re: Letter to Obama: What the Car Industry Needs Is A Steve Jobs

#28
post #21
post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The numbers say otherwise. 51% of all vehicles sold in the US in December 2008 were pickups or SUVs. [1] Average vehicle sales price is $25,000 [2], despite the existence of nice cheap fuel-efficient cars like the Yaris at $12,000. Dagres' suggestion that cars should be more about electronic gadgets is wrongheaded. Cars last 10 years, gadgets are obsolete after 3. You want a car + an iPhone, the second of which you'l…

> The numbers say otherwise. 51% of all vehicles sold in the US in December 2008 were pickups or SUVs. [1] Average vehicle sales price is $25,000 [2], despite the existence of nice cheap fuel-efficient cars like the Yaris at $12,000. Actually, the numbers don't say that. If you only have one car, that car has to satisfy almost all of your car needs. The Yaris doesn't for a lot of people. (The Scion xB does for a lot…

I want a vehicle that costs $4,000 and does moderate-good mileage with good safety. It could be a possibility with Tata Motors buying out brands like Jaguar and Land Rover. They have a vehicle that fills this criteria selling for $2,500.

I know, however, that if I'm spending $12,000 on a Yaris, $25,000 on your basic sedan or $35,000 on a Ford F-150 what am I going to choose? Well I'm going with the F-150 (or other truck) because the amount it'll cost me to do 'extra' things with a car is going to cost me more than it saves to buy a truck. I've worked in construction, which means any work on my own house is going to be done with my two hands and everything I use needs to be loaded into my truck.

If there was a car for $4,000 I'd probably get it and suffer with renting a U-Haul every time I wanted to do something, but over the run of 10 years U-Haul's will add up way past the $10,000 difference between a truck and a sedan.

Post reply on HN