The unbearable cheapness of open weight models • Hacker News Board

Re: The unbearable cheapness of open weight models

#21

Post by sofixa » Thu, Jun 25, 2026, 8:26 AM UTC

Jackobrien wrote: post #7

The giants knew this was coming, and soon 95% of AI tasks will be able to be done by open models (coding, research, cowork style work). So why pay a premium? Why use them at all? This leaves the labs with two options: 1) push the frontier in a way only massive scale can, and cash in on it (mythos level cyber security, recursive training, frontier science work). There’s big money for never before possible capabilities…

> own the app layer with their edge in reputation and powered by their infrastructure. Be apple where everyone else is Linux. Do design, coding, research, SMBs, legal, finance, healthcare and more (they are doing all of this).

The problem with this is that there are incumbents in all those spaces doing their own AI agents / platforms, and they're the ones choosing the models they use internally and they sell to their own customers. The margins and the possibility to fine tunie using open weight models, as well as the guarantee they'll keep running at predictable costs (no US orders yanking access), make them a very appealing option.

And if you're a company that needs an AI powered legal software, would you buy it from OpenAI/Anthropic, or from someone who you've already bought legal software from before and has the domain knowledge?

Re: The unbearable cheapness of open weight models

#22

Post by chpatrick » Thu, Jun 25, 2026, 8:27 AM UTC

jorisw wrote: post #9

Jimega36 wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Reach AGI to leapfrog whoever is behind. Burn everything to get there faster.

'Reach AGI', the same way SpaceX will put data centers in orbit. A pipe dream.

I think it's such a vague term. If you showed someone in 2010 what we have now they would say it's science fiction.

Re: The unbearable cheapness of open weight models

#23

Post by fredley » Thu, Jun 25, 2026, 8:29 AM UTC

Jackobrien wrote: post #7

The giants knew this was coming, and soon 95% of AI tasks will be able to be done by open models (coding, research, cowork style work). So why pay a premium? Why use them at all? This leaves the labs with two options: 1) push the frontier in a way only massive scale can, and cash in on it (mythos level cyber security, recursive training, frontier science work). There’s big money for never before possible capabilities…

3) Buy all the RAM, increasing the barrier to entry to push back the tide a bit, in time for a juicy IPO.

Re: The unbearable cheapness of open weight models

#24

Post by spwa4 » Thu, Jun 25, 2026, 8:29 AM UTC

NitpickLawyer wrote: post #19

ed_elliott_asc wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Won’t all they need to do is say “best in class, latest models, fastest” and wine and dine a few execs and those enterprise deals will be signed? In this case the people tasked with using the product won’t actually mind.

No one is getting fired for using SotA.

If the price difference is 2x? Sure.

If the price difference is 50x? No way.

Re: The unbearable cheapness of open weight models

#25

Post by InsideOutSanta » Thu, Jun 25, 2026, 8:37 AM UTC

worldsayshi wrote: post #20

my-next-account wrote: post #16

I wonder whether Oracle is going to go bankrupt because of this

Why Oracle?

They're extremely exposed to a market crash due to their huge debt-funded compute contracts.

Having said that, while one can always hope, I would assume that Oracle is one of these companies that will be bailed out or find a way to survive.

Re: The unbearable cheapness of open weight models

#26

Post by fragmede » Thu, Jun 25, 2026, 8:37 AM UTC

actionfromafar wrote: post #17

ed_elliott_asc wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Won’t all they need to do is say “best in class, latest models, fastest” and wine and dine a few execs and those enterprise deals will be signed? In this case the people tasked with using the product won’t actually mind.

Yes, exactly that. Be Azure and Office 365 and Sharepoint and AWS where everyone else is Debian Stable on a USB thumbdrive.

Office 365? Ew, Google docs, please.

Re: The unbearable cheapness of open weight models

#27

Post by InsideOutSanta » Thu, Jun 25, 2026, 8:41 AM UTC

odie5533 wrote: post #12

Jimega36 wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Reach AGI to leapfrog whoever is behind. Burn everything to get there faster.

If Anthropic announced AGI tomorrow, how much better would that model be than Fable 5? It's looking like the road to AGI is gradual and moat-less. Models seem capable of improving other models, and even without illegal distillations many are nipping at the heels of Anthropic.

Yeah, I think we're learning that we overestimated the relevance of recursive self-improvement in a singularity/intelligence takeoff scenario. We thought that once an AI could start improving itself, it would cause an exponential, self-reinforcing intelligence explosion.

Turns out that scaling up compute is much more important and also limits the upper end of intelligence.

Re: The unbearable cheapness of open weight models

#28

Post by tsss » Thu, Jun 25, 2026, 8:43 AM UTC

linzhangrun wrote: post #2

It would not be surprising if GPT and Claude get cheaper too as inference gets cheaper. Two years ago, o1 was the strongest model and cost much more than Fable, while being nowhere near as smart as a Qwen 3.6 35B that you can now run on a DGX Spark without much trouble.

Probably they will, unless Claude and GPT become luxury brands like Gucci. Currently it makes no sense for them to invest into efficiency. They need to put everything into competing for the top spot as long as they still have a shot.

Re: The unbearable cheapness of open weight models

#29

Post by IncreasePosts » Thu, Jun 25, 2026, 8:43 AM UTC

odie5533 wrote: post #12

Jimega36 wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Reach AGI to leapfrog whoever is behind. Burn everything to get there faster.

If Anthropic announced AGI tomorrow, how much better would that model be than Fable 5? It's looking like the road to AGI is gradual and moat-less. Models seem capable of improving other models, and even without illegal distillations many are nipping at the heels of Anthropic.

Why would the creator of AGI sell it to anyone, when they could keep it to themselves and corner dozens of markets?

Re: The unbearable cheapness of open weight models

#30

Post by brainwad » Thu, Jun 25, 2026, 8:43 AM UTC

spwa4 wrote: post #24

NitpickLawyer wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No one is getting fired for using SotA.

If the price difference is 2x? Sure. If the price difference is 50x? No way.

So long as the benefit:cost ratio is still sufficiently high, I don't think anyone gets fired for not scrimping. Better to encourage positive EV behaviour by your employees than to scare them away by firing them for not being perfectly optimal.