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Google's 200M-parameter time-series foundation model with 16k context

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Re: Google's 200M-parameter time-series foundation model with 16k context

#21

Post by dash2 »

So the time series are provided with no context? It's just trained on lots of sets of numbers? Then you give it a new set of numbers and it guesses the rest, again with no context?

My guess as to how this would work: the machine will first guess from the data alone if this is one of the categories it has already seen/inferred (share prices, google trend cat searches etc.) Then it'll output a plausible completion for the category.

That doesn't seem as if it will work well for any categories outside the training data. I would rather just use either a simple model (ARIMA or whatever) or a theoretically-informed model. But what do I know.

Re: Google's 200M-parameter time-series foundation model with 16k context

#22

Post by nico »

d--b wrote: post #15
teruakohatu wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What is not generally understood is that these models don’t predict egg prices or inflation in Italy. They decompose a time series into trends, seasonality and residuals. That’s what they are actually modelling. They cannot predict wars in the Middle East influencing inflation unless there is a seasonal pattern(s).

The main issue is that people do use them to predict bitcoin prices intraday and that sort of things.

Is it an issue because it works, or because it doesn’t? Or because it’s bitcoin?

I genuinely want to know. Thank you

Re: Google's 200M-parameter time-series foundation model with 16k context

#23

Post by mikkom »

jdthedisciple wrote: post #20

Let me be blunt: Shannon would tell us that time forecasting is bullshit: There is infinitely more entropy in the real world out there than any model can even remotely capture. The world is not minecraft.

Yeah all weather forecasts are just magic

Re: Google's 200M-parameter time-series foundation model with 16k context

#24

Post by eru »

EmilStenstrom wrote: post #4

I somehow find the concept of a general time series model strange. How can the same model predict egg prices in Italy, and global inflation in a reliable way? And how would you even use this model, given that there are no explanations that help you trust where the prediction comes from…

> How can the same model predict egg prices in Italy, and global inflation in a reliable way?

How can the same lossy compression algorithm (eg JPG) compress pictures of everything in a reliable way?

Re: Google's 200M-parameter time-series foundation model with 16k context

#25

Post by eru »

mikkom wrote: post #23
jdthedisciple wrote: post #20

Let me be blunt: Shannon would tell us that time forecasting is bullshit: There is infinitely more entropy in the real world out there than any model can even remotely capture. The world is not minecraft.

Yeah all weather forecasts are just magic

And JPG doesn't work either..

Re: Google's 200M-parameter time-series foundation model with 16k context

#26

Post by rubyn00bie »

cybrox wrote: post #16
teruakohatu wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What is not generally understood is that these models don’t predict egg prices or inflation in Italy. They decompose a time series into trends, seasonality and residuals. That’s what they are actually modelling. They cannot predict wars in the Middle East influencing inflation unless there is a seasonal pattern(s).

Wars in the middle east seem to have increasingly regular patterns tied to stock market opening hours, unfortunately.

I totally agree with the sentiment but from what I can tell, I’d say they tend happen immediately before or after markets open and close. Essentially, and to their maximum, screwing absolutely everyone who isn’t in the clique from participating in the trade.

FWIW— the only sure fire way to win the trade is to buy time and assume both gross incompetence and negligence when it comes action. The only caveat is if the markets tank enough, this administration will signal capitulation before hand, e.g. Trump mildly capitulating on tariffs last April after the markets proceed to relentlessly defecate themselves.

0-DTE options are typically, and for good reason, stupid gambles. But, right now they can’t even be considered gambling, because there’s zero chance of winning. Not just bad odds, but no odds. Again just signaling how truly malicious this admin is and its disdain for anyone and everyone not close to them.

Re: Google's 200M-parameter time-series foundation model with 16k context

#27

Post by cenamus »

eru wrote: post #24
EmilStenstrom wrote: post #4

I somehow find the concept of a general time series model strange. How can the same model predict egg prices in Italy, and global inflation in a reliable way? And how would you even use this model, given that there are no explanations that help you trust where the prediction comes from…

> How can the same model predict egg prices in Italy, and global inflation in a reliable way? How can the same lossy compression algorithm (eg JPG) compress pictures of everything in a reliable way?

It can't compress pictures of everything in a reliable way.

Text and anything with lots of high frequency components looks terrible

Re: Google's 200M-parameter time-series foundation model with 16k context

#28

Post by at_compile_time »

cenamus wrote: post #27
eru wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> How can the same model predict egg prices in Italy, and global inflation in a reliable way? How can the same lossy compression algorithm (eg JPG) compress pictures of everything in a reliable way?

It can't compress pictures of everything in a reliable way. Text and anything with lots of high frequency components looks terrible

Reliably terrible.

Re: Google's 200M-parameter time-series foundation model with 16k context

#29

Post by kgwgk »

mikkom wrote: post #23
jdthedisciple wrote: post #20

Let me be blunt: Shannon would tell us that time forecasting is bullshit: There is infinitely more entropy in the real world out there than any model can even remotely capture. The world is not minecraft.

Yeah all weather forecasts are just magic

Whether forecasting is simple: it either rains or it doesn’t. 50/50 probability!
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