Dear Facebook, It Could Really Be This Simple

Post by Jaigus » Fri, Aug 03, 2012, 3:26 PM UTC

salman89 wrote: post #2

While I don't feel Facebook is doomed, this article really lacks meaningful content. "And, if it can leverage the physical goods loophole on iOS, it can become the social shopping platform. So buh bye lame “Social stories” and buh bye Amazon (which currently has a $100b market cap, around twice that of Facebook)." Really, Facebook's save is social shopping... and that would upend Amazon?

>While I don't feel Facebook is doomed, this article really lacks meaningful content.

But look at the site its coming from. Most of what they pump out is hyperbole about ycombinator(or some other VC pal of theirs) companies, lacking meaningful content, and it seems they write about their every move, no matter how trivial, from the company's start to end. I remember an article published about Kevin Rose saying he'd "shoot" bad ideas in the head. An entire article, just to tell everyone he wouldn't waste time on bad ideas.

Post by mariusz331 » Fri, Aug 03, 2012, 4:29 PM UTC

I wouldn't advise this guy putting money into facebook just yet. A stock's price is supposed to reflect all information pertaining to a company (including a lock-up expiration). However, as with Groupon and LinkedIn, the price before their lock-ups expired didn't correctly reflect the value of the stock with all the 'unlocked' shares flooding the market.

I speculate that facebook's price will continue to go down post lock-up. Insiders aren't ignoring the poor news or outlook and I think they'll sell for more reasons than those. That's not necessarily because these insiders don't trust their company. They may have to pay off expensive things (maybe a nice home?) they bought when the company IPO'd and can't risk the uncertainty of facebook's future value. Also, if you ask any investor, they'll tell you that diversifying your portfolio is important.

Another interesting thing to think about are tax implications. I know a lot of facebook insiders were happy that their IPO was pre-July because otherwise, the lock-up would have crossed into 2013. This is when taxes on capital gains are expected to rise and it can cost them a lot of money.

I'm curious to see the performance of the stock in the coming months. Especially with the uncertainty of growth, possible tax increases, and the implications of the lock-up expiry, this will be an interesting journey for facebook.

Re: Dear Facebook, It Could Really Be This Simple

Re: Dear Facebook, It Could Really Be This Simple