The value of short term thinking • Hacker News Board

Re: The value of short term thinking

#21

Post by unimpressive » Mon, Jul 30, 2012, 1:00 AM UTC

thronemonkey wrote: post #15

incongruity wrote: post #9

Technology may change quickly, but what doesn't change so quickly are the needs and wants of customers or the rules of economics. Long term viability is still essential for shareholder value – but not necessarily VC value. But, I digress... Yes, life has changed since 2007, but many of the same fundamental problems still persist. If I may get on a soap-box that I've borrowed from others wiser and more well-spoken, wh…

This is a near perfect summary of my problems with the tech business (particular the startup scene) and why I wouldn't want to get into it. People are so focused on making things that I find to be totally trivial and banal. How many more note-taking apps, organizers, and social whatevers does the world really need?

>People are so focused on making things that I find to be totally trivial and banal.

Then build something that isn't.

Re: The value of short term thinking

#22

Post by brc » Mon, Jul 30, 2012, 1:00 AM UTC

incongruity wrote: post #9

Technology may change quickly, but what doesn't change so quickly are the needs and wants of customers or the rules of economics. Long term viability is still essential for shareholder value – but not necessarily VC value. But, I digress... Yes, life has changed since 2007, but many of the same fundamental problems still persist. If I may get on a soap-box that I've borrowed from others wiser and more well-spoken, wh…

I disagree with your main point.

I agree that healthcare, transportation, education are vitally important areas that constant innovation will yield results for everyone, consumers, producers, governments, workers.

However, the social networking changes have enabled new knowledge pathways and relationships that simply could not have existed more than a decade ago. Sure, much of it is just superfluous fluff and inane posturing. But then, probably the majority of information transmitted over the telegraph, then the telephone, and now the internet has always been inane banter and useless chatting.

But just because telegrams were full of news about new babies, birthday wishes and promotion announcements didn't devalue the worth of the nascent communications industry.

What happens when new ways of communicating occur is that entirely new ways of working and collaborating grow out of it.

In just about every case, connecting with people leads to greater understanding, tolerance, and entirely new knowledge patterns.

Will there be high-profile social networking flameouts? Yes. Will the future of communication, relationships, production and consumption be shaped by these patterns? Undoubtedly yes.

It seems galling to many that optimising day-to-day communications between friends gets more attention than healthcare, but humans are a social species. Chatting and sharing information has always been at the core of being human. If a core function of being human improves, surely humanity itself has been improved?

Re: The value of short term thinking

#23

Post by brc » Mon, Jul 30, 2012, 1:02 AM UTC

brudgers wrote: post #12

"It usually takes at least 5 years to build a company to exit or profitability." Five years is also roughly the time frame of Venture Capital funding. With Silicon Valley companies, it may be a bit of the tail wagging the dog because exits are often driven by investor timelines.

Or it could be, that over time, funds worked out that the time taken to build a business to sustainability took about 5 years and designed their fund lengths around this.

I would say it's far more likely that the funds followed pre-established patterns than they created the patterns.

Re: The value of short term thinking

#24

Post by cpeterso » Mon, Jul 30, 2012, 1:33 AM UTC

gpcz wrote: post #11

Long-term thinking and predicting the future are related but not the same thing. For example, if you knew you were going to unavoidably die in a month, you probably wouldn't eat the same way as if you thought you had 30-70 years ahead of you. The fact we can't predict these things doesn't mean it's a good idea to gorge on junk food every day.

That's a great point: long-term thinking is not about predicting the future, but scenario analysis where you anticipate a number of possible/probable future. When the actual future unfolds, you can say, "oh, that future", open envelope #2, and steer accordingly. :)

Re: The value of short term thinking

#25

Post by treelovinhippie » Mon, Jul 30, 2012, 2:18 AM UTC

I think what's primarily lacking is startups talking about their grand vision. Sure there are quick flip startups, but a lot of founders begin with a grand future vision and work backwards, breaking down what can be done now to move toward the end goal.

I think we never hear about these visions as companies probably see them as a competitive advantage. But if everyone spoke about where their startup could be in 5, 10, 20 years we'd be able to accurately shape the future together rather than it simply haphazardly manifesting based on incremental investments.

Re: The value of short term thinking

#26

Post by stickfigure » Mon, Jul 30, 2012, 2:22 AM UTC

brc wrote: post #22

incongruity wrote: post #9

Technology may change quickly, but what doesn't change so quickly are the needs and wants of customers or the rules of economics. Long term viability is still essential for shareholder value – but not necessarily VC value. But, I digress... Yes, life has changed since 2007, but many of the same fundamental problems still persist. If I may get on a soap-box that I've borrowed from others wiser and more well-spoken, wh…

I disagree with your main point. I agree that healthcare, transportation, education are vitally important areas that constant innovation will yield results for everyone, consumers, producers, governments, workers. However, the social networking changes have enabled new knowledge pathways and relationships that simply could not have existed more than a decade ago. Sure, much of it is just superfluous fluff and inane p…

I believe the parent's main point is that there are plenty of fields in which longer-term thinking is possible. I think there is a further subpoint that these fields have Real Problems to which a competent solution will bring predictable, concrete wealth to both founders and society.

It's the difference between finding a problem and figuring out what technological change can address it, vs finding a cool new technology and looking around for some sort of problem to apply it. The later approach produces a lot of imagined problems and business failures.

One weakness in SV monoculture is the preponderance of kids who have never done anything but tech; the only Real Problems they know about are basic human drives like communication and how to find the best local happy hour. Not that this doesn't produce some occasional spectacular successes, but it keeps the-best-and-the-brightest all playing in a very expensive tournament with little social value generated by 4th+ place finishers.

The contrarian in me thinks that fresh CS grads who want to be entrepreneurs should immediately take non-programming jobs in some boring old-line industry like banking or retail or government and spend a year learning the problem domain. Then sit down to figure out what software to write. Or put it this way: I really don't care about Twitter or Foursquare or even Facebook. I'd pay good money for a Banksimple invite.

Re: The value of short term thinking

#27

Post by deerpig » Mon, Jul 30, 2012, 2:25 AM UTC

yskchu wrote: post #20

incongruity wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Indeed. Ironic that "being a producer" is heralded so when the marginal cost of production of these goods really is around ~$0.00 in many/most/virtually all cases. I'm just say'n is all...

The point of being a producer is not that you have to work on the biggest world-changing idea from the get-go; the point is to get on the bandwagon of producing, practice makes perfect. It's said that it takes 10000 hours of practice to become good at something; what's wrong with building another text app or music app while practicing? It's all experience, building up to something great in the future.

In one sense you are correct. But do we really need so many people doing what is essentially journeyman work, building trivial one-feature products with piles of VC funding that forces them to produce things that make money, rather than things that are good or do any any good? There are a lot of deserving open source projects that you can practice on, rather than stumbling around trying to figure out what you want to do while looking for an exit to justify your latest round of funding.

Re: The value of short term thinking

#28

Post by eclipxe » Mon, Jul 30, 2012, 3:03 AM UTC

incongruity wrote: post #9

Technology may change quickly, but what doesn't change so quickly are the needs and wants of customers or the rules of economics. Long term viability is still essential for shareholder value – but not necessarily VC value. But, I digress... Yes, life has changed since 2007, but many of the same fundamental problems still persist. If I may get on a soap-box that I've borrowed from others wiser and more well-spoken, wh…

Very well said! I agree.

Re: The value of short term thinking

#29

Post by joering2 » Mon, Jul 30, 2012, 4:45 AM UTC

yskchu wrote: post #20

incongruity wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Indeed. Ironic that "being a producer" is heralded so when the marginal cost of production of these goods really is around ~$0.00 in many/most/virtually all cases. I'm just say'n is all...

The point of being a producer is not that you have to work on the biggest world-changing idea from the get-go; the point is to get on the bandwagon of producing, practice makes perfect. It's said that it takes 10000 hours of practice to become good at something; what's wrong with building another text app or music app while practicing? It's all experience, building up to something great in the future.

> what's wrong with building another text app or music app while practicing? It's all experience, building up to something great in the future.

I don't mind you practicing for 20,000 hours, but please do not publish online and do not spam the internet with "your text app or music app while [you were] practicing".

There may be a value in some early writings of Shakespeare or Tolstoy, but I cannot possibly imagine anyone willing to go through all the clutter that the brightest writers ever written, from the very first dot they've put on a blank piece of paper.

Re: The value of short term thinking

#30

Post by toddheasley » Mon, Jul 30, 2012, 4:48 AM UTC

mikeleeorg wrote: post #19

Nobody believed mobile would be the fastest growing segment of tech I disagree about this one. In 2007: + AdMob raised $15M for their Series B from Accel and Sequoia. + Google announced their Android platform (after having purchased it in 2005). + Apple launches the iPhone. I would say those are major examples of the big bets large corporations and investors were placing on mobile being a fast, if not the fastest gro…

I get the author's point, but I also strongly disagree that the economy was doing "incredibly well." I think it was fairly obvious even 5 years prior to 2007 that the wheels were coming off. For me it felt like a slow motion accident. Same with mobile; you're only startled by the impact if you were looking the other direction.