Long-term thinking and predicting the future are related but not the same thing. For example, if you knew you were going to unavoidably die in a month, you probably wouldn't eat the same way as if you thought you had 30-70 years ahead of you. The fact we can't predict these things doesn't mean it's a good idea to gorge on junk food every day.
The value of short term thinking
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Re: The value of short term thinking
#12"It usually takes at least 5 years to build a company to exit or profitability."
Five years is also roughly the time frame of Venture Capital funding. With Silicon Valley companies, it may be a bit of the tail wagging the dog because exits are often driven by investor timelines.
Re: The value of short term thinking
#13I agree, but I'd add that part of the issue may be the zeitgeist: the world is changing more quickly than some/many are able to process; there are (again) growing fears about the future, justified or not; the fear that it may just all end tomorrow - so why bother making long term investments in anything? You could even think of it as a kind of renewed undercurrent of subconscious eschatological feeling running through societies. Our popular culture reflects this (zombie/dystopian fiction becoming very mainstream is a salient example.) Another facet of this is "The Cheating Culture" - global hypercompetition coupled with the above leads to the taking of many shortcuts, and sometimes outright unethical or illegal behavior.
This too shall all likely pass, but for the meantime, we're probably just going to have to live with this culture and thinking, and hope that we continue to make good progress regardless (everything from artificial organs to self-driving cars are beoming reality while this is being typed, so there's plenty of hope underneath.) It still has negative affects (and is depressing), as the OP explains, though.
Re: The value of short term thinking
#14Nobody has a clue? I don't buy it. Big things are happening in energy, biotech, health care, 3d printing, telecom, computing, and more. There is definitely a place for longer term thinking.
Re: The value of short term thinking
#15Technology may change quickly, but what doesn't change so quickly are the needs and wants of customers or the rules of economics. Long term viability is still essential for shareholder value – but not necessarily VC value. But, I digress... Yes, life has changed since 2007, but many of the same fundamental problems still persist. If I may get on a soap-box that I've borrowed from others wiser and more well-spoken, wh…
This is a near perfect summary of my problems with the tech business (particular the startup scene) and why I wouldn't want to get into it. People are so focused on making things that I find to be totally trivial and banal. How many more note-taking apps, organizers, and social whatevers does the world really need?
Re: The value of short term thinking
#16Technology may change quickly, but what doesn't change so quickly are the needs and wants of customers or the rules of economics. Long term viability is still essential for shareholder value – but not necessarily VC value. But, I digress... Yes, life has changed since 2007, but many of the same fundamental problems still persist. If I may get on a soap-box that I've borrowed from others wiser and more well-spoken, wh…
This is a near perfect summary of my problems with the tech business (particular the startup scene) and why I wouldn't want to get into it. People are so focused on making things that I find to be totally trivial and banal. How many more note-taking apps, organizers, and social whatevers does the world really need?
Right, there's so much rhetoric about being a producer and not a consumer, when (as you point out) the things being produced are mostly pretty underwhelming. As if it doesn't really matter too much what you're making as long as you're a maker and not one of those yucky consumer zombies.
Re: The value of short term thinking
#17Earlier quoted context omitted.
This is a near perfect summary of my problems with the tech business (particular the startup scene) and why I wouldn't want to get into it. People are so focused on making things that I find to be totally trivial and banal. How many more note-taking apps, organizers, and social whatevers does the world really need?
Right, there's so much rhetoric about being a producer and not a consumer, when (as you point out) the things being produced are mostly pretty underwhelming. As if it doesn't really matter too much what you're making as long as you're a maker and not one of those yucky consumer zombies.
Indeed. Ironic that "being a producer" is heralded so when the marginal cost of production of these goods really is around ~$0.00 in many/most/virtually all cases. I'm just say'n is all...
Re: The value of short term thinking
#18"5 years ago, in the middle of 2007:"
One thing he forgets to mention is how companies raised capital back then. In the middle of 2007, fundraising was far different than it is today. The deal flows were much longer, accelerators such as YC were almost unheard of, and investors had less overall competition.
I remember going through fundraising with my last employer in 2007. We raised a $1.5 Series A (not a seed, something comparable to seeds today), had far less term sheets than companies get today, and winning a UC Berkeley business plan competition was our access to a pool of investors (unlike a demo day for YC, 500, Techstars).
Re: The value of short term thinking
#19Nobody believed mobile would be the fastest growing segment of tech
I disagree about this one. In 2007:
+ AdMob raised $15M for their Series B from Accel and Sequoia.
+ Google announced their Android platform (after having purchased it in 2005).
+ Apple launches the iPhone.
I would say those are major examples of the big bets large corporations and investors were placing on mobile being a fast, if not the fastest growing segment of tech.
Re: The value of short term thinking
#20Earlier quoted context omitted.
Right, there's so much rhetoric about being a producer and not a consumer, when (as you point out) the things being produced are mostly pretty underwhelming. As if it doesn't really matter too much what you're making as long as you're a maker and not one of those yucky consumer zombies.
Indeed. Ironic that "being a producer" is heralded so when the marginal cost of production of these goods really is around ~$0.00 in many/most/virtually all cases. I'm just say'n is all...
The point of being a producer is not that you have to work on the biggest world-changing idea from the get-go; the point is to get on the bandwagon of producing, practice makes perfect.
It's said that it takes 10000 hours of practice to become good at something; what's wrong with building another text app or music app while practicing? It's all experience, building up to something great in the future.