Earlier quoted context omitted.
[flagged]
Is there a good reason to downvote this? It seems undeniably true, no?
[deleted]
Global Economy Approaches Soft Landing, but Risks Remain
21–30 of 122 posts
Re: Global Economy Approaches Soft Landing, but Risks Remain
#22IMF economic forecasts are of little value, as everyone should have learned from 2008. Let's see what the IMF forecast in 2007...
https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2015/09/28/04/53/sores1...
forecast: "World growth to slow in 2008, but still expected to remain solid at 4¾ percent "
reality (Fed report 2013): "From peak to trough, US gross domestic product fell by 4.3 percent, making this the deepest recession since World War II."
If climate scientists made forecasts that were this ridiculously off base in the wrong direction, the whole field would be laughed out of the room. How is it that the neoclassical econometric modelers at the IMF aren't? It's more like astrology than science.
Re: Global Economy Approaches Soft Landing, but Risks Remain
#23Soft landing except for us in tech who have been unemployed for months or years
On the flip side, tech was booming during Covid when a ton of people in retail, restaurants were affected. All industries and all sectors can’t always be booming without there being a perpetual bubble. We have trouble finding good engineers to hire, so I’m skeptical when I hear people having trouble finding engineering jobs. My assumption (could be wrong) is a lot of people having trouble getting work haven’t adjuste…
What do you consider "unrealistically high", because I find that hard to apply to what I'm seeing. For example, I was recently contacted about a bay area principal engineer spot for 150-190k. To give some context, a fast food place near my house has signs in the window offering 160k+ for managers.
Maybe fast food is paying exceptionally well these days, but I have my doubts.
Re: Global Economy Approaches Soft Landing, but Risks Remain
#24Re: Global Economy Approaches Soft Landing, but Risks Remain
#25Soft landing except for us in tech who have been unemployed for months or years
On the flip side, tech was booming during Covid when a ton of people in retail, restaurants were affected. All industries and all sectors can’t always be booming without there being a perpetual bubble. We have trouble finding good engineers to hire, so I’m skeptical when I hear people having trouble finding engineering jobs. My assumption (could be wrong) is a lot of people having trouble getting work haven’t adjuste…
> We have trouble finding good engineers to hire...
You're not looking hard enough.
Re: Global Economy Approaches Soft Landing, but Risks Remain
#26Earlier quoted context omitted.
It's in the article I linked. I didn't say it was all immigration's doing just a piece of the puzzle. Also it doesn't mean it solved the labor problem just reduced the intensity, wage growth is still good, just not disastrous in inflation terms. There is no difference between a worker not existing and one not willing to work, but wages are still up and many people left the market permanently during covid (also in the…
People leaving the workforce is definitely good for wages, we agree on that, and to get higher wages labor will have to organize. I just haven't seen any data that immigration (regardless of type) is contributing in any meaningful way towards keeping wage inflation down. I didn't flag your comment btw, I thought that was a bit aggressive by whoever did that considering the comment content, but I don't have permission…
Wage inflation is always linked to supply and demand, with so many people coming over the border and given work authorisation (and even those who don't get it) the labor supply goes up, wages moderate.
I noticed the flag, it's very odd. If it shows I think it means that it's been flagged by multiple people not just one, but I could be wrong.
Re: Global Economy Approaches Soft Landing, but Risks Remain
#27Soft landing except for us in tech who have been unemployed for months or years
On the flip side, tech was booming during Covid when a ton of people in retail, restaurants were affected. All industries and all sectors can’t always be booming without there being a perpetual bubble. We have trouble finding good engineers to hire, so I’m skeptical when I hear people having trouble finding engineering jobs. My assumption (could be wrong) is a lot of people having trouble getting work haven’t adjuste…
> We have trouble finding good engineers to hire
And then
> while I might have been open to hiring a digital nomad in 2021, I’m not open to that anymore because there are more “normal” candidates out there who aren’t asking for special treatment or unrealistically high salaries.
Maybe these things are related.
“Normal” has changed. The engineers I know have moved away and are very happy with the flexibility of their new WFH lifestyle and the work life balance it provides. And they will refuse to work for organizations like yours that continue to hold regressive views on WFH.
Re: Global Economy Approaches Soft Landing, but Risks Remain
#28Earlier quoted context omitted.
[flagged]
Is there a good reason to downvote this? It seems undeniably true, no?
I believe he was referring to "Professional and technical services".
This is a general category that includes legal advice and representation; accounting, bookkeeping, and payroll services; architectural, engineering, and specialized design services; computer services; consulting services; research services; advertising services; photographic services; translation and interpretation services; veterinary services; and other professional, scientific, and technical services.
https://data.bls.gov/cew/apps/bls_naics/v3/bls_naics_app.htm...
Re: Global Economy Approaches Soft Landing, but Risks Remain
#29Earlier quoted context omitted.
[flagged]
Is there a good reason to downvote this? It seems undeniably true, no?
"Professional and technical services" covers a lot of stuff, and there may be lots more workers in 'professional services' that are not software folks.
I've got more than a handful of (over)qualified colleagues that can't get hired anywhere. Hundreds of applications - not all just click/submit, but many have personal connections/intros vouch for them - hiring will take less experienced/cheaper folks, or... just put off hiring for another few months.
Place near me has had the same open position for going on 16 months now. Specific language/tech stack where they also want someone onsite 5 days week. When you've had the position open that long, and you've turned away qualified people for... nitpicky stuff... the job must not be that important. Yet, somehow it's ultra-important to be onsite 5 days/week. Suspicion is that they're just riding the other devs there harder while they 'look' for someone they have no intention of hiring, all while saying "we just can't find anyone!".
Re: Global Economy Approaches Soft Landing, but Risks Remain
#30Soft landing except for us in tech who have been unemployed for months or years
On the flip side, tech was booming during Covid when a ton of people in retail, restaurants were affected. All industries and all sectors can’t always be booming without there being a perpetual bubble. We have trouble finding good engineers to hire, so I’m skeptical when I hear people having trouble finding engineering jobs. My assumption (could be wrong) is a lot of people having trouble getting work haven’t adjuste…
> We have trouble finding good engineers to hire
> while I might have been open to hiring a digital nomad in 2021, I’m not open to that anymore
Might be related?