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Global Economy Approaches Soft Landing, but Risks Remain

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Re: Global Economy Approaches Soft Landing, but Risks Remain

#11

Post by dkjaudyeqooe »

toomuchtodo wrote: post #7
dkjaudyeqooe wrote: post #5

[flagged]

Can you provide citations demonstrating this? Because all available evidence indicates that inflation has cooled because the supply chain is no longer dysfunctional. If immigration had solved this problem, you wouldn't see this: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-05/us-immigr... | https://archive.today/eDWSt ("Immigration Rage Drowns Out the US Labor Market’s Need for Workers") There is no labor shortage…

It's in the article I linked. I didn't say it was all immigration's doing just a piece of the puzzle. Also it doesn't mean it solved the labor problem just reduced the intensity, wage growth is still good, just not disastrous in inflation terms.

There is no difference between a worker not existing and one not willing to work, but wages are still up and many people left the market permanently during covid (also in the linked article).

Re: Global Economy Approaches Soft Landing, but Risks Remain

#12

Post by cj »

ulfw wrote: post #6

Soft landing except for us in tech who have been unemployed for months or years

On the flip side, tech was booming during Covid when a ton of people in retail, restaurants were affected.

All industries and all sectors can’t always be booming without there being a perpetual bubble.

We have trouble finding good engineers to hire, so I’m skeptical when I hear people having trouble finding engineering jobs. My assumption (could be wrong) is a lot of people having trouble getting work haven’t adjusted to “the new norm” whether that be decreased salary levels, changing WFH expectations, etc.

E.g. while I might have been open to hiring a digital nomad in 2021, I’m not open to that anymore because there are more “normal” candidates out there who aren’t asking for special treatment or unrealistically high salaries.

Re: Global Economy Approaches Soft Landing, but Risks Remain

#14

Post by toomuchtodo »

dkjaudyeqooe wrote: post #11
toomuchtodo wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can you provide citations demonstrating this? Because all available evidence indicates that inflation has cooled because the supply chain is no longer dysfunctional. If immigration had solved this problem, you wouldn't see this: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-05/us-immigr... | https://archive.today/eDWSt ("Immigration Rage Drowns Out the US Labor Market’s Need for Workers") There is no labor shortage…

It's in the article I linked. I didn't say it was all immigration's doing just a piece of the puzzle. Also it doesn't mean it solved the labor problem just reduced the intensity, wage growth is still good, just not disastrous in inflation terms. There is no difference between a worker not existing and one not willing to work, but wages are still up and many people left the market permanently during covid (also in the…

People leaving the workforce is definitely good for wages, we agree on that, and to get higher wages labor will have to organize. I just haven't seen any data that immigration (regardless of type) is contributing in any meaningful way towards keeping wage inflation down.

I didn't flag your comment btw, I thought that was a bit aggressive by whoever did that considering the comment content, but I don't have permissions to vouch.

Re: Global Economy Approaches Soft Landing, but Risks Remain

#16

Post by silverquiet »

ulfw wrote: post #6

Soft landing except for us in tech who have been unemployed for months or years

Creative destruction is all fun and games when it’s someone else who’s being disrupted. I guess that’s the free hand of the market directing you to another industry.

Re: Global Economy Approaches Soft Landing, but Risks Remain

#17

Post by AnimalMuppet »

vasco wrote: post #8

Most times in history the real crash only happens a while after rate increases stop, sometimes only after the first reduction. Famous last words I guess.

Define "crash". Do you mean a real crash? Or just a recession?

There's a huge difference between a normal business cycle, and, say, 2008 or 1897. In a normal cycle, there's often a lag time between where the economy actually is (especially viewed with hindsight) and where the Fed policy is. By the time the Fed starts reducing rates, business activity has already started slowing down, and six months later they will say that we're in a recession.

In a real crash, I'm less clear on the dynamics, but I think that soon after the economy starts slowing down, some speculative bubble pops because people figure out that it's not going to keep going up forever. There's not necessarily a clear cause-and-effect or timing link between that and interest rates, so far as I know.

Re: Global Economy Approaches Soft Landing, but Risks Remain

#20

Post by willcipriano »

toomuchtodo wrote: post #14
dkjaudyeqooe wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's in the article I linked. I didn't say it was all immigration's doing just a piece of the puzzle. Also it doesn't mean it solved the labor problem just reduced the intensity, wage growth is still good, just not disastrous in inflation terms. There is no difference between a worker not existing and one not willing to work, but wages are still up and many people left the market permanently during covid (also in the…

People leaving the workforce is definitely good for wages, we agree on that, and to get higher wages labor will have to organize. I just haven't seen any data that immigration (regardless of type) is contributing in any meaningful way towards keeping wage inflation down. I didn't flag your comment btw, I thought that was a bit aggressive by whoever did that considering the comment content, but I don't have permission…

Labor and housing. The only places in economics where supply/demand is never a factor.

Such a convenient way for the universe to arrange itself for the people in power who want immigration huh?

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