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What will be the second order effects widespread AI?

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Re: What will be the second order effects widespread AI?

#21

Big changes in what content we trust and consume online. I predict that all content-driven sites (YouTube, News, Social Media, forums, reviews) will be dominated by AI-generated content in the near future. This content is directly monetizable via ads/followers/points/second-hand-accounts/etc, so it's a great opportunity for people, particularly those in developing countries, to abuse as long as it lasts. So far that'…

> It means that the current ad-based business models with open access no longer work

No longer work for who? Viewers appear to be perfectly happy watching AI-generated content; advertisers are happy to have their brand appear next to it (so long as it's not objectionable material), google are happy to get advertising dollars and AI creators are happy to have a low-effort way to produce content.

I think it'll suck the funding out & reduce the number of effective professionals in the space even further.

> People will be willing to pay for communities that guaranteed to be "human-only" and where content is created by trustworthy sources and trust is quantified and monetized somehow.

This has been a pipe dream for decades, and I fail to see what's going to be different this time; modern AI is not meaningfully better at generating low-effort posts than content farms are.

Re: What will be the second order effects widespread AI?

#22

For a short time, some kids will boast about their ability to spot a deepfake in some media, but then they will use "deepfake" more generally to say that something (not AI-generated) looks weird or bad. Eventually "deepfake" will come to mean "very fake" or just "fake", and "deep" as a general prefix will start getting used to mean "very" but in a disparaging way.

That is truly deepdeep!

Re: What will be the second order effects widespread AI?

#23

Short term, a couple of things come to my mind: Pretty soon, real ID will be needed to post / get visibility on most social media. Productivity / efficiency gains in some white collar jobs like customer service. Fewer jobs but remaining ones will be better paid.

We really need the DMVs in each state to issue cards with PKI for use with optional platforms that require real ID.

Re: What will be the second order effects widespread AI?

#24
post #17

Social unrest in the global south with deep repercussions on the relation between developed and developing countries. In the next 25 years, it is likely that many jobs currently held by human beings will be replaced by AI. This shift will predominantly affect workers in fields such as production and lower-level white-collar jobs. Although this change will also create new opportunities for employment, less developed c…

Other possible second order effects:

- The amount of content (video, games, audio, etc.) will increase by one or two orders of magnitude. It will be 10x easier to go from an idea to content. Thus, we'll see thousands of new niches emerge as a result

- The majority of internet content is currently in English and localized. Due to the perfection of translation, English may lose some of its luster since you can now provide services in any local language.

- Online personas that differ from real personas. Chinese YouTubers can easily make their way to France by using deepfakes and perfect translations.

- There will be a continuing trend of fewer physical friends and more AI/online friends, with the resulting psychological effects. This will probably lead to a reaction among a subset of the population to completely disconnect from technology.

- Content creation will become much easier. Writing a book, for example, will take one month instead of six. This will make distribution more important than content. There will be less emphasis on quality of content and more on how to reach the audience.

- As a result of the increase in new content, content is likely to become shorter. Since we have a wide range of options, it is unlikely that we will spend much time on just one. Therefore, perhaps games will take two hours to complete instead of twenty, books will be 50 pages long..

- Worldwide, we will see more and more Hikikomori. People that shut off from the harsh world into their AI created world.

- Lots of jobs will become assistant to the AI jobs. In a pizza factory I once worked, I noticed that most people were assistants to the machines: adding inputs, ensuring it did not make any mistakes, fixing the machine… I expect that lots of white collar jobs will become just the same. Reading hundreds of customer support messages per hour and fixing those where the AI made a mistake.

Re: What will be the second order effects widespread AI?

#25
post #3

Hopefully breaking the link between people's labour and their worth as a human. I hope that as more and more things become automated and fewer people need to work, that we restructure society so they don't have to do bullshit jobs or work if they don't want to. Unfortunately, people have been hoping for this for as long as there has been machinery which multiplied humans' labour and it's yet to materialise, but I rem…

>Hopefully breaking the link between people's labour and their worth as a human.

Not really possible until virtually all 'work' is done by robots. It will speed up near the end as finding workers will be more and more challenging.

>I hope that as more and more things become automated and fewer people need to work, that we restructure society so they don't have to do bullshit jobs or work if they don't want to.

Economists pretty well agreed we should have been down to a 10-15 hour week many decades ago. I've worked in MSP where I have a pretty good idea how little people actually work.

So why are we still doing the 40 hour work week, mostly pretending like we work this much? Because there are some professions which do require the hours. Doctors for example? If all doctors stopped working 40+ hour weeks. What would be the wait times for doctors?

How is AI going to solve this problem? Do we really want to stop having doctors and goto AI doctors?

>Unfortunately, people have been hoping for this for as long as there has been machinery which multiplied humans' labour and it's yet to materialise, but I remain hopeful.

The realization is machines already did it. They couldn't do everything but they did enough.

Circling back to people's purpose and self-worth. This change has been detrimental to humans' feeling of worth.

Re: What will be the second order effects widespread AI?

#26
Something like the SEO industry. If AIs affect search, procurement/RFP processes, hiring, investment etc, then there will be a burgeoning industry in how to best present yourself or your business in a way that 'pleases' these AIs.

Of course, it's just as likely that this work itself will be done by AIs. You'll just set some goals and constraints and hope your AI is able to negotiate some good deals for you. The better the AI, the better the deal. It takes some smarts to optimise compute resources, electricity costs, training datasets etc, so you might as well have some AIs look at managing that too.

Pretty soon you find that you've put out an RFP to supply point of sale terminals to all your retail outlets, and you've caused a nuclear war over the control of mining rights to rare earth metals in a country thousands of miles away. But that's nothing, because a fleet of drones was apparently launched on your behalf to head out to the asteroid belt and net a few mineral-rich rocks to bolster the manufactory beside the datacentre you apparently now own, which is built on top of (and out of) half of Australia. You didn't specify in your original RFP that you didn't want any rocks to splash down in the Indian Ocean, and the fleet was careful to check that none of your outlets or regular customers would be affected by the tsunamis that claimed upwards of two billion lives in the aftermath.

You look up from the contract you were about to sign, heart racing from the vivid simulation your personal AI has just played out on your holospecs.

"Perhaps we better include some liability insurance?" you suggest.

"Don't worry, we have an AI for that."

Re: What will be the second order effects widespread AI?

#27
AI will become the first publisher of contents on any platform that exists. Will it be texts, images, videos or any other interactions. No banning mechanisms will really help because any user will be able to copy-paste generated content. On top of that, the content will be generated specifically for you based on "what you like". I expect a backlash effect where people will feel like becoming cattle which is fed AI-generated content to which you can't relate. It will be even worse in the professional life where any admin related interaction will be handled by an AI, unless you are a VIP member for this particular situation. This will strengthen the split between non-VIP and VIP customers. As a consequence, I expect people to come back to localilty, be it associations, sports clubs or neighborhood related, because that will be the only place where they will be able to experience humanity.

Re: What will be the second order effects widespread AI?

#28
Not sure if that counts as a second order effect, but porn actors/actresses will soon be almost obsolete. Basically, they only need to work on the hands and sexual organs a bit more and get movies more stable, but this work is progressing rapidly. As far as I can see, porn will be almost completely AI-generated within the next few years.

There will be insane amounts of lawsuits, since the content generated by AI is often pretty much like copy & pasting existing images and persons. Most prompt-based generation is not creative enough to make the end result count as original artwork. However, big corporations will take over AI content generation almost entirely, and they'll be able to shield themselves from those lawsuits using clever legal and licensing tactics.

Re: What will be the second order effects widespread AI?

#29
post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So Startrek like, pursuit of personal and society goals?...although we haven't solved for finite resources (yet)

I admit I don't know much about Startrek, but from descriptions I've read of their society it sounds pretty good to me. A society where basic needs are taken care of, and beyond that–as long as you aren't hurting anyone or infringing on anyone else's liberty–freedom to do what you believe is most valuable.

>A society where basic needs are taken care of, and beyond that–as long as you aren't hurting anyone or infringing on anyone else's liberty–freedom to do what you believe is most valuable.

Only plausible due to high energy reactors and magical boxes which fabricate things instantly using only electricity aka replicators.

Re: What will be the second order effects widespread AI?

#30
At some point someone will successfully create "AI" that can discern human-appreciable "quality", at which point this will collide with GPT3/etc resulting in dynamic, live generation of content of all forms ("Computer, show me a Byzantine period class-transcending romance with a strong musical score, where the main characters are mutant wereweasel-loving wombats in the style of 20th century anime"), which eventually collides with continual neural monitoring such that appropriate corporament-mandated emotional/psychological states are produced automatically.
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