Earlier quoted context omitted.
Particular stocks and options. Either long or short, depending on which.
do not buy options.
Sometimes there the probability is mispriced by a large factor because nobody's paying attention.
Forecast for US Recession Within Year Hits 100%
21–30 of 31 posts
Re: Forecast for US Recession Within Year Hits 100%
#22Re: Forecast for US Recession Within Year Hits 100%
#23No post body was provided.
Re: Forecast for US Recession Within Year Hits 100%
#24By the classic definition and trends in our industries like layoffs, I think we all know it's already here regardless of the election related word games.
Unemployment is down. Wages are going up. Inflation is up. These are not things that happen during recessions.
Ah you kidding, hackernews shows large layoffs every other day now
Re: Forecast for US Recession Within Year Hits 100%
#25US has already had two quarters of negative GDP growth. https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product Bloomberg is 100% right.
Why do people keep posting this?
Because the people who don't like this textbook definition being used when it's inconvenient, haven't proposed a better definition. What definition would you use to describe a recession?
Re: Forecast for US Recession Within Year Hits 100%
#26Re: Forecast for US Recession Within Year Hits 100%
#27Re: Forecast for US Recession Within Year Hits 100%
#28Earlier quoted context omitted.
How are we already in a recession?
2 quarters of negative GDP growth is the textbook definition of a recession, and we have had 2
The forecast for this quarter is around 3% GDP growth (annualized) - how does that put us "in a recession" right now? Doesn't that mean the recession is over?
Re: Forecast for US Recession Within Year Hits 100%
#29Earlier quoted context omitted.
Unemployment is down. Wages are going up. Inflation is up. These are not things that happen during recessions.
Ah you kidding, hackernews shows large layoffs every other day now
There are always layoffs. Layoffs don't make a recession. Do you not think people get laid off and businesses are failing during good times? Of course it happens.
Re: Forecast for US Recession Within Year Hits 100%
#30Earlier quoted context omitted.
2 quarters of negative GDP growth is the textbook definition of a recession, and we have had 2
The forecast for this quarter is around 3% GDP growth (annualized) - how does that put us "in a recession" right now? Doesn't that mean the recession is over?
Well, if we have two quarters of positive GDP growth, that would signal an end of an ongoing recession.