Where does one park money during a recession?
Buying stock at a steep discount.
Forecast for US Recession Within Year Hits 100%
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Re: Forecast for US Recession Within Year Hits 100%
#12Where does one park money during a recession?
buy a single share of Gamestop on Computershare. you will be able to sell it for over $100 million after MOASS. you do not want to be holding IOUs when banks and brokers get liquidated.
Re: Forecast for US Recession Within Year Hits 100%
#13Re: Forecast for US Recession Within Year Hits 100%
#14I've been thinking about how these economic conditions, while they meet every criteria of a severe recession, are vastly different for the average person than any I can think of in modern history.
In a typical recession GDP is down, unemployment is up, wages are being driven down, and companies have stockpiles of unsold inventory because nobody has money to buy things. In this recession GDP is down, we're at full employment, wages are being driven up, companies have empty inventory due to supply chain issues, and consumers are standing around holding cash waiting for someone to offer products for sale.
I think GDP is down because a lot of workers retired or otherwise left the workforce at once so companies don't have enough people to get work done. Supply chain issues mean manufacturers and retailers don't have products to sell, which also impacts GDP. Cost of living is certainly up which impacts the average person, but honestly that wouldn't be such a problem if companies were setting wages in response to market conditions as opposed to stubbornly keeping them low as if a bunch of people who want to work for minimum wage will magically appear.
Re: Forecast for US Recession Within Year Hits 100%
#15US has already had two quarters of negative GDP growth. https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product Bloomberg is 100% right.
Why do people keep posting this?
Re: Forecast for US Recession Within Year Hits 100%
#16By the classic definition and trends in our industries like layoffs, I think we all know it's already here regardless of the election related word games.
Unemployment is down. Wages are going up. Inflation is up. These are not things that happen during recessions.
Re: Forecast for US Recession Within Year Hits 100%
#17Re: Forecast for US Recession Within Year Hits 100%
#18Re: Forecast for US Recession Within Year Hits 100%
#19US has already had two quarters of negative GDP growth. https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product Bloomberg is 100% right.
Why do people keep posting this?
It's one of the textbook definitions of a recession from a first year college economics course. That is, it's a standard definition of a recession.
For example, to quote the IMF:
"Most commentators and analysts use, as a practical definition of recession, two consecutive quarters of decline in a country’s real (inflation adjusted) gross domestic product (GDP)—the value of all goods and services a country produces (see “Back to Basics,” F&D, December 2008). Although this definition is a useful rule of thumb, it has drawbacks." (https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/2009/03/pdf/basic...)
David Sacks points this issue out rather well.
Re: Forecast for US Recession Within Year Hits 100%
#20By the classic definition and trends in our industries like layoffs, I think we all know it's already here regardless of the election related word games.
Unemployment is down. Wages are going up. Inflation is up. These are not things that happen during recessions.
Old status quo is over. Demographics are largely to blame. Can’t really do much about that