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Ask HN: Is WWIII already in its early stages?

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Re: Ask HN: Is WWIII already in its early stages?

#21

Post by akmarinov »

netsharc wrote: post #10
kypro wrote: post #5

I doubt it simply because there's still a massive power imbalance between western and non-western countries. A war with China and Russia would obviously be awful for the human race, but there's almost no way China and Russia would win such a war, nor would it make sense to fight it. I mean what does the "winner" of WWIII gain? You might win the war, but now the planet is a nuclear waste land. I think China and Russia…

> the West could, if needed, find other trading partners Caveat: I'm not an expert, but I think this is too simplistic. If both sides completely divorced from each other, Western factories would probably struggle to manufacture a lot of things, because they rely on components from China, components you and I have probably never considered necessary. E.g: https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/24/russian-invasion-of-ukraine-...

It’ll be very very very painful, Great Depression and beyond levels of pain, but doable.

If it starts today, in 10-15 years the western world can be back to its current level.

Re: Ask HN: Is WWIII already in its early stages?

#22

Post by brabel »

api wrote: post #11
mytailorisrich wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> but there's almost no way China and Russia would win such a war For any sensible definitions of 'win', there's also no way the US can win against China, or even Russia. Both China and Russia are impossible to successfully invade and they both have nuclear weapons (same applies to the US). These 3 countries do not want to go to war against each others and they won't. As the WOPR once wisely concluded, the only winni…

So instead we see endless proxy wars where these three powers use other countries as battlegrounds killing other people.

My half Ukrainian wife says that the US is willing to fight the war in Ukraine until the last Ukrainian.

Re: Ask HN: Is WWIII already in its early stages?

#23

Post by dvfjsdhgfv »

> China preparing to invade Taiwan

They have been preparing for a long time, but Taiwan is preparing extremely well, too. If China decides to strike, they will take enormous damage and if they succeed, they will just get some barren land with toxic waste which is an unreasonably high price to pay and completely unnecessary - it's not like they lack land like Bangladesh.

Re: Ask HN: Is WWIII already in its early stages?

#24

Post by akmarinov »

api wrote: post #11
mytailorisrich wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> but there's almost no way China and Russia would win such a war For any sensible definitions of 'win', there's also no way the US can win against China, or even Russia. Both China and Russia are impossible to successfully invade and they both have nuclear weapons (same applies to the US). These 3 countries do not want to go to war against each others and they won't. As the WOPR once wisely concluded, the only winni…

So instead we see endless proxy wars where these three powers use other countries as battlegrounds killing other people.

Where’s China proxywarring?

Re: Ask HN: Is WWIII already in its early stages?

#25

Post by simmerup »

mytailorisrich wrote: post #6
kypro wrote: post #5

I doubt it simply because there's still a massive power imbalance between western and non-western countries. A war with China and Russia would obviously be awful for the human race, but there's almost no way China and Russia would win such a war, nor would it make sense to fight it. I mean what does the "winner" of WWIII gain? You might win the war, but now the planet is a nuclear waste land. I think China and Russia…

> but there's almost no way China and Russia would win such a war For any sensible definitions of 'win', there's also no way the US can win against China, or even Russia. Both China and Russia are impossible to successfully invade and they both have nuclear weapons (same applies to the US). These 3 countries do not want to go to war against each others and they won't. As the WOPR once wisely concluded, the only winni…

The problem with war is that you lose control of the situation extremely fast.

Whether the countries want to go to war doesn’t matter when a bluff that isn’t a bluff is called.

Re: Ask HN: Is WWIII already in its early stages?

#26

Post by rocgf »

mytailorisrich wrote: post #6
kypro wrote: post #5

I doubt it simply because there's still a massive power imbalance between western and non-western countries. A war with China and Russia would obviously be awful for the human race, but there's almost no way China and Russia would win such a war, nor would it make sense to fight it. I mean what does the "winner" of WWIII gain? You might win the war, but now the planet is a nuclear waste land. I think China and Russia…

> but there's almost no way China and Russia would win such a war For any sensible definitions of 'win', there's also no way the US can win against China, or even Russia. Both China and Russia are impossible to successfully invade and they both have nuclear weapons (same applies to the US). These 3 countries do not want to go to war against each others and they won't. As the WOPR once wisely concluded, the only winni…

When did the US 'flex their muscles' over Ukraine? There was absolutely zero talk of the US/NATO directly intervening militarily in Ukraine.

As for Taiwan, it's an unknown and if you claim otherwise, you're doing it based on nothing. Biden has clearly and repeatedly stated that the US would defend Taiwan. Not saying the US actually wants to, maybe it's just a deterrent. However, if China does attack and the US backs off, that would mean the end of American supremacy regardless.

Re: Ask HN: Is WWIII already in its early stages?

#28

Post by akmarinov »

vbezhenar wrote: post #19

WW3 will not happen. Countries are not stupid to destroy the Earth. Local wars here and there happened and will happen in the future. There's nothing special about Ukraine or Taiwan in that regard. World will move from US-centric model to multi-polar model. One pole is China, one pole is Russia, one pole is EU, one pole is US, one pole is Iran. Confused about India but probably it'll be a separate pole as well. Proba…

There’s 0 chance a South American pole forms so long as the US is around.

Re: Ask HN: Is WWIII already in its early stages?

#29

Post by vbezhenar »

mytailorisrich wrote: post #2

> With Russia invading Ukraine & China preparing to invade Taiwan, I can't help but wonder. And before that the US invaded Iraq (twice), Afghanistan, various other countries (arguably including Vietnam and Korea). The USSR also invaded Afghanistan. Plus various other proxy conflicts. WWIII, in the sense of an all out war, won't happen because the opponents all have nuclear weapons and are too big in any case. The Wes…

I don't believe NATO will work in case of direct attack from Russia, e.g. if Russia decided to "denationalise" Poland or Litva. They'll send weapons and may be some limited help, but they won't engage into a full scale war, I don't believe it. There's no point for US soldier to die for Poland territory, especially knowing that it'll cause nuclear response killing his family. NATO is good as long as nobody powerful challenges it. It won't last forever.

Re: Ask HN: Is WWIII already in its early stages?

#30

Post by rocgf »

drKarl wrote: post #7

The TikTok spying is probably irrelevant since most TikTok users are teenagers. I was surprised when Putin went ahead and actually invaded Ukraine since I didn't see the cost/benefit justifying the invasion. Putin had a war chest of more than 600 billion dollars. Like half of that was on western banks and it's now frozen, so Putin can't use it. They're burning through the rest quickly as Russian economy is going to t…

> The TikTok spying is probably irrelevant since most TikTok users are teenagers.

Guess what those teenagers will be in like 10 years.

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