Taiwan to Deploy ‘Bee Eye’ Radars Near Chinese Mainland • Hacker News Board

Re: Taiwan to Deploy ‘Bee Eye’ Radars Near Chinese Mainland

#21

Post by powerapple » Sat, Jun 11, 2022, 4:34 PM UTC

fartcannon wrote: post #10

FooBarWidget wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That is a fundamental misreading of China's relationship with Taiwan and China's intentions. China is likely to never attack Taiwan as long as the status quo is maintained, and as long as they believe that eventual peaceful reunification is possible. China's policy on Taiwan has not changed for decades. The height of military tensions were in the late 50s, when China and Taiwan were shelling each other. In later deca…

What about what they did in Hong Kong? They changed the rules once, what stops them from doing it again? History clearly means nothing.

What CCP did in Hong Kong is exactly they think necessary to stop the independence movement in Hong Kong. Same goes to Taiwan, it will lead to a war eventually.

Re: Taiwan to Deploy ‘Bee Eye’ Radars Near Chinese Mainland

#22

Post by swayvil » Sat, Jun 11, 2022, 4:35 PM UTC

antux wrote: post #19

China is always overstepping their bounds and needs to be checked by the superpowers of the world. Without checks and balances, they will continue to bully the neighboring countries by force and deception.

A gaggle of billionaires with a nation in their pocket. They want to grow. Mugging your neighbors might be the only option.

Re: Taiwan to Deploy ‘Bee Eye’ Radars Near Chinese Mainland

#23

Post by samcheng » Sat, Jun 11, 2022, 4:35 PM UTC

melling wrote: post #14

samcheng wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not convinced the equivalence you mention - "aggression from both sides" - is really there. The current Taiwanese government's only stated goal is to defend itself; there is no serious surviving political will in Taiwan to attack China. China could attack Taiwan (particularly Matsu and Kinmen), but an attack on the mainland also appears less likely these days, given the very real chance of humiliation a la Russia…

Russia has regrouped and moved past the “humiliation“ event. Russia has 10 times the artillery as Ukraine and they are putting it to work. The West is simply not providing enough to Ukraine Hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians will eventually die, and they could lose. https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-risks-losing-artillery-war-...

Even if Russia manages to level a few more cities, it's hard to see the past three months as anything but a humiliation of Russia's military might. The damage to Russian military international respect (fear, even) has already been done.

Re: Taiwan to Deploy ‘Bee Eye’ Radars Near Chinese Mainland

#24

Post by bigcat12345678 » Sat, Jun 11, 2022, 4:36 PM UTC

mensetmanusman wrote: post #2

Unfortunately, China will likely attack Taiwan unless Russia is humiliated.

Nah, anyone who think China's ambition is Taiwan, is simply ignorant of the civilization's history. China has always been the central of the world order, pride herself on its superiority in all aspects of human society. Taiwan needs to be a showcase of superiority over the US represented system. This superiority could be demonstrated in many manner, not necessarily taking over the island. After all, one who eyes the ocean does not care the pond remain private.

Re: Taiwan to Deploy ‘Bee Eye’ Radars Near Chinese Mainland

#25

Post by FooBarWidget » Sat, Jun 11, 2022, 4:39 PM UTC

aaaaaaaaata wrote: post #13

FooBarWidget wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That is a fundamental misreading of China's relationship with Taiwan and China's intentions. China is likely to never attack Taiwan as long as the status quo is maintained, and as long as they believe that eventual peaceful reunification is possible. China's policy on Taiwan has not changed for decades. The height of military tensions were in the late 50s, when China and Taiwan were shelling each other. In later deca…

> Anything Russia does to other states has got absolutely nothing to do with it. Your comment was excellent, and helpful to me. Thanks. I do disagree that China isn't watching US reaction through a million lenses to see how they can best increase their odds rolling over Taiwan with minimal damage. My strongest evidence? Political changes in Hong Kong.

China is definitely watching the US, but I don't think it's for the reason you imagine.

China prefers peaceful reunification. They don't want to fight a war if they don't have to. At the same time, peaceful reunification is a core interest of China. Which means that they will go to war, but only if they believe peaceful reunification is no longer possible.

So yes they do watch the US to make calculations. But even if the US is weak, they still don't want a war as long as they believe peaceful reunification is possible.

Furthermore, Taiwanese reunification is not only a core interest, it's also possibly the most emotional one for the Chinese. Large portions of the population support reunification, and they will overthrow whichever leader lets Taiwan go.

This is why "raising the stakes" by announcing military support for Taiwan does not deter China. Quite the opposite: they encourage China to go to war, costs be damned, because such foreign support signal that peaceful reunification will become impossible.

As for Hong Kong, see my comment here https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=31705632

Re: Taiwan to Deploy ‘Bee Eye’ Radars Near Chinese Mainland

#26

Post by throw10920 » Sat, Jun 11, 2022, 4:40 PM UTC

FooBarWidget wrote: post #15

fartcannon wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What about what they did in Hong Kong? They changed the rules once, what stops them from doing it again? History clearly means nothing.

Deviations in agreements is not a thing exclusive to China. Agreements in international politics are made for a purpose. Perhaps to keep peace, or to protect some interest, etc. If the situation changes such that that purpose can no longer be served — especially if that purpose is an extremely important core interest — then any country will seek to deviate from agreed upon behavior. For example, the US clearly agreed…

> Deviations in agreements is not a thing exclusive to China.

Yes, but merely looking at the agreement that China broke recently with the invasion of Hong Kong, a reasonable person would assume that there's a much higher risk of them breaking more agreements than another arbitrary country that hasn't been invading other countries recently. Said another way, most people currently will trust France to honor a pact more than they trust Russia.

...not that that somehow makes violating the agreement with and invading Hong Kong somehow morally excusable.

China seems pretty similar to Russia right now - with an authoritarian dictator planning to use military force to invade nearby countries.

You can even draw parallels between their mindsets - Putin wants to recreate the glory of the Soviet Union and views the old USSR countries as "his", just as Xi Jinping wants to recreate the glory of old China and views Hong Kong and Taiwan as his.

> So the question "will China renegade on its agreement or not?" is best answered with another question: "What is China's core interest? What purpose does an agreement serve to China?"

I don't see what purpose this statement has. It's clearly in China's core interest to be aggressive and expansionist and invade nearby countries and steal IP from other countries, but none of that is right, and none of that changes the fact that they're an aggressive enemy who pose a threat to the whole Asia region at least, if not the whole world.

Re: Taiwan to Deploy ‘Bee Eye’ Radars Near Chinese Mainland

#27

Post by appletrotter » Sat, Jun 11, 2022, 4:41 PM UTC

bigcat12345678 wrote: post #24

mensetmanusman wrote: post #2

Unfortunately, China will likely attack Taiwan unless Russia is humiliated.

Nah, anyone who think China's ambition is Taiwan, is simply ignorant of the civilization's history. China has always been the central of the world order, pride herself on its superiority in all aspects of human society. Taiwan needs to be a showcase of superiority over the US represented system. This superiority could be demonstrated in many manner, not necessarily taking over the island. After all, one who eyes the…

I love this take. WHy should Greeks care about barbarians?

Re: Taiwan to Deploy ‘Bee Eye’ Radars Near Chinese Mainland

#28

Post by melling » Sat, Jun 11, 2022, 4:42 PM UTC

antux wrote: post #19

China is always overstepping their bounds and needs to be checked by the superpowers of the world. Without checks and balances, they will continue to bully the neighboring countries by force and deception.

China, Russia, and the United States are the only 3 superpowers.

China already has a larger economy in terms of PPP. It passed the United States in 2017.

Russia appears to have bigger plans beyond Ukraine:

https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-europe-38099842

Also, people seem to be a month behind on what Russia is doing in Ukraine.

https://www.stripes.com/theaters/europe/2022-06-10/ukraine-a...

Re: Taiwan to Deploy ‘Bee Eye’ Radars Near Chinese Mainland

#29

Post by samcheng » Sat, Jun 11, 2022, 4:43 PM UTC

acgt wrote: post #18

samcheng wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not convinced the equivalence you mention - "aggression from both sides" - is really there. The current Taiwanese government's only stated goal is to defend itself; there is no serious surviving political will in Taiwan to attack China. China could attack Taiwan (particularly Matsu and Kinmen), but an attack on the mainland also appears less likely these days, given the very real chance of humiliation a la Russia…

> The current Taiwanese government's only stated goal is to defend itself. That is entirely wrong. There are plenty of people in the current government pushing the envelope to achieve more "pronounced" independence. Two examples: Biden’s democracy summit incident. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/curious-case-map-... Change of passport. The current government is also pushing to get the day-to-day name Taiwa…

It's remarkable that anyone would classify something like a change of passport or a color on a map as "aggression" toward China! Especially when the Chinese aggression discussed here is airstrikes and missile barrage, followed by a naval invasion.

Everyone understands that Taiwan will not invade China. To classify Taiwan as the aggressor is wildly disingenuous.

Re: Taiwan to Deploy ‘Bee Eye’ Radars Near Chinese Mainland

#30

Post by indymike » Sat, Jun 11, 2022, 4:43 PM UTC

FooBarWidget wrote: post #5

mensetmanusman wrote: post #2

Unfortunately, China will likely attack Taiwan unless Russia is humiliated.

That is a fundamental misreading of China's relationship with Taiwan and China's intentions. China is likely to never attack Taiwan as long as the status quo is maintained, and as long as they believe that eventual peaceful reunification is possible. China's policy on Taiwan has not changed for decades. The height of military tensions were in the late 50s, when China and Taiwan were shelling each other. In later deca…

> That is a fundamental misreading of China's relationship with Taiwan and China's intentions. China is likely to never attack Taiwan as long as the status quo is maintained, and as long as they believe that eventual peaceful reunification is possible. China's policy on Taiwan has not changed for decades.

The problem is that the status quo may not be acceptable to the people of Taiwan and reunification is not acceptable not even slightly wanted by the people of Taiwan. The's not really any chance of a reunification of the current China and the current Taiwan.

> Anything Russia does to other states has got absolutely nothing to do with it.

Not really, if Putin had quickly succeeded I have not doubt that WWIII would have started with a failed attempt to take Taiwan followed by WWIII. There's no scenario where A) China can take Taiwan, and B) Taiwan will accept Chinese rule. That died 70 years ago.