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‘Housing in ‘07 wasn’t a bubble” is a true statement that almost no one believes

fullstackeconomics.com

21–30 of 130 posts

Re: ‘Housing in ‘07 wasn’t a bubble” is a true statement that almost no one believes

#21
Interesting view and great data crunching. But I am amazed how one can write a long article purportedly about the causes of the 07/08 crisis without ever mentioning credit quality. By my impression, the prevailing view is that the crisis was caused by poor credit quality of some home buyers (I remember the term NINJA borrowers - no income, no job or assets). This was masked away in complex financial products (CDOs,...) that made it hard for buyers like banks to assess individual borrower quality and instead had them rely on (flawed) valuation models by rating agencies. The high ratings for these products allowed the market for them to balloon from a niche to a gigantic size that made it systemically important. When the first cracks started showing, worries about borrowers' credit quality turned into worries about banks' credit quality, leading to bank-run-like situations in the money markets, and ultimately the failure of banks like Lehman Brothers and others.

The article seems to start from a misleading claim, one that misses a crucial part of the picture, and that is much easier to refute than the full story. The data is still super interesting to see.

Re: ‘Housing in ‘07 wasn’t a bubble” is a true statement that almost no one believes

#22
post #3

Paul Krugman described the effect memorably in 2005. https://www.nytimes.com/2005/08/08/opinion/that-hissing-soun... "Then there are the numbers. Many bubble deniers point to average prices for the country as a whole, which look worrisome but not totally crazy. When it comes to housing, however, the United States is really two countries, Flatland and the Zoned Zone. In Flatland, which occupies the middle of the count…

Paul krugman has been wrong on almost everything

When you win a nobel prize in economics, I will listen to you more.

Re: ‘Housing in ‘07 wasn’t a bubble” is a true statement that almost no one believes

#23
post #3

Paul Krugman described the effect memorably in 2005. https://www.nytimes.com/2005/08/08/opinion/that-hissing-soun... "Then there are the numbers. Many bubble deniers point to average prices for the country as a whole, which look worrisome but not totally crazy. When it comes to housing, however, the United States is really two countries, Flatland and the Zoned Zone. In Flatland, which occupies the middle of the count…

> When the demand for houses rises, Flatland metropolitan areas, which don't really have traditional downtowns, just sprawl some more.

And this is the driving force behind those cities going bankrupt, they're easy to build but not sustainable in the long term: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Nw6qyyrTeI

Re: ‘Housing in ‘07 wasn’t a bubble” is a true statement that almost no one believes

#24
post #4

This analysis seems to be attacking a strawman "the economic recession caused housing to drop, not the other way around". I mean there were multiple, interconnected factors including lax lending standards, anticipation of ever increasing housing prices, overbuilding in some locations. It's pretty clear none of them were responsible on their own . And the fact that they use Canada as an example of a country "that neve…

Canada's housing market is inflated but not a bubble - the fundamentals of supply and demand are still firmly in place in Canada's largest cities (ie population growth is FAR exceeding infrastructure).

Canada's housing market will see a roll back in pricing (lets say at an extreeme 20-30%) however that really is only pushing pricing back 1-2 years max (possibly not even that).

Re: ‘Housing in ‘07 wasn’t a bubble” is a true statement that almost no one believes

#25
post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Money laundering explains Vegas and New York.

But how exactly can you launder money through buying a house? If you buy, essentially you declare you have the money, thus question can be asked where you got it from.

That seems to explain it rather good (not that I would be able to tell, but it real estate money laundering is problem):

https://www.icij.org/investigations/fincen-files/a-kleptocra...

That is an interesting bit from the lined article:

"One of the biggest issues that the report cites is the use of geographic targeting orders as the U.S.’s primary tool to identify potential money laundering events. GTOs impose reporting requirements on real estate purchases, but only in narrowly targeted scenarios — large cash purchases by legal entities in specific geographic areas."

Re: ‘Housing in ‘07 wasn’t a bubble” is a true statement that almost no one believes

#26
post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Which is crazy, because you would think that Australia was mostly Flatland! It's the size of the continental US, with a population lower than Texas. Everyone here lives in the capital cities, and last I looked there were almost no tech jobs at all further up the coast between Sydney and Brisbane. I wonder if pandemic working from home is going to change this, some of our devs have already moved up the coast...

Probably because it's mostly desert

So is California. And Texas.

Re: ‘Housing in ‘07 wasn’t a bubble” is a true statement that almost no one believes

#27

A Wall Street insider high up at a major USA bank once told me that 2008 was a media created phenomenon. There was no mortgage crises, leverage for sure, but nobody went to jail. Why did no one go to jail? Nothing was done wrong. It was a panic sparked by the media.

Without judging whether it's true or not, it makes sense for a wall street insider to blame it on someone else, doesn't it? Everybody wants to be the good guy in the story, even wall street people.

Re: ‘Housing in ‘07 wasn’t a bubble” is a true statement that almost no one believes

#28
> And yet not very many people think we’re in the middle of a second housing bubble.

Really? It seems pretty obvious to me that we're in the middle of a huge bubble. The problem is the bubble may not pop for decades because propping up the bubble is government policy at every level from federal to state to local. And if they ever stop, tons of people will be totally screwed. Never mind that even more people are getting screwed by the bubble...

Re: ‘Housing in ‘07 wasn’t a bubble” is a true statement that almost no one believes

#29

A Wall Street insider high up at a major USA bank once told me that 2008 was a media created phenomenon. There was no mortgage crises, leverage for sure, but nobody went to jail. Why did no one go to jail? Nothing was done wrong. It was a panic sparked by the media.

To greatly oversimplify the issues, there was plenty of wrong done it just wasn’t illegal. Don’t confuse good decision making nor morality with legality.

There are PLENTY of sources documenting the the faulty assumptions and collective delusion that led to the 2008 mortgage crisis happen. Blaming the media for the panic without acknowledging the very real and very large underlying issues sound like post hoc self justification.

Re: ‘Housing in ‘07 wasn’t a bubble” is a true statement that almost no one believes

#30
It's probably more than one thing. I agree with with the points on supply, plus the fact that cities can only grow so much before transportation becomes impossible, and then there is a huge premium to be near the center (watch the traffic in the streets in old movies or documentary from the 1970s compared to now in cities like Paris or London).

But I think another big factor is that we are measuring inflation wrong. I think the various QE had the same effect than any other money printing in history, to drive prices up. But I think the way it was introduced (directly in the financial system, rather than paying people with it), meant that the inflation was localised into financial assets, and to the cost of anyone benefiting from higher financial assets (VC, asset and hedge fund managers, etc). So stock prices skyrocketed, as prime real estate prices, college tuitions, expensive restaurants, etc. But that's not captured by the various CPI indices.

Then came covid, with its new, massive rounds of QE. But this time the money printing was distributed to ordinary citizens through various furlough schemes, financed by deficits, pretty much directly financed by the central bank. And oh surprise, about a year later we see inflation jumping up massively.

So it may be that these inflation adjusted real estate prices charts aren't adjusted as they should.

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