The article seems to start from a misleading claim, one that misses a crucial part of the picture, and that is much easier to refute than the full story. The data is still super interesting to see.
‘Housing in ‘07 wasn’t a bubble” is a true statement that almost no one believes
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Re: ‘Housing in ‘07 wasn’t a bubble” is a true statement that almost no one believes
#22Paul Krugman described the effect memorably in 2005. https://www.nytimes.com/2005/08/08/opinion/that-hissing-soun... "Then there are the numbers. Many bubble deniers point to average prices for the country as a whole, which look worrisome but not totally crazy. When it comes to housing, however, the United States is really two countries, Flatland and the Zoned Zone. In Flatland, which occupies the middle of the count…
Paul krugman has been wrong on almost everything
Re: ‘Housing in ‘07 wasn’t a bubble” is a true statement that almost no one believes
#23Paul Krugman described the effect memorably in 2005. https://www.nytimes.com/2005/08/08/opinion/that-hissing-soun... "Then there are the numbers. Many bubble deniers point to average prices for the country as a whole, which look worrisome but not totally crazy. When it comes to housing, however, the United States is really two countries, Flatland and the Zoned Zone. In Flatland, which occupies the middle of the count…
And this is the driving force behind those cities going bankrupt, they're easy to build but not sustainable in the long term: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Nw6qyyrTeI
Re: ‘Housing in ‘07 wasn’t a bubble” is a true statement that almost no one believes
#24This analysis seems to be attacking a strawman "the economic recession caused housing to drop, not the other way around". I mean there were multiple, interconnected factors including lax lending standards, anticipation of ever increasing housing prices, overbuilding in some locations. It's pretty clear none of them were responsible on their own . And the fact that they use Canada as an example of a country "that neve…
Canada's housing market will see a roll back in pricing (lets say at an extreeme 20-30%) however that really is only pushing pricing back 1-2 years max (possibly not even that).
Re: ‘Housing in ‘07 wasn’t a bubble” is a true statement that almost no one believes
#25Earlier quoted context omitted.
Money laundering explains Vegas and New York.
But how exactly can you launder money through buying a house? If you buy, essentially you declare you have the money, thus question can be asked where you got it from.
https://www.icij.org/investigations/fincen-files/a-kleptocra...
That is an interesting bit from the lined article:
"One of the biggest issues that the report cites is the use of geographic targeting orders as the U.S.’s primary tool to identify potential money laundering events. GTOs impose reporting requirements on real estate purchases, but only in narrowly targeted scenarios — large cash purchases by legal entities in specific geographic areas."
Re: ‘Housing in ‘07 wasn’t a bubble” is a true statement that almost no one believes
#26Earlier quoted context omitted.
Which is crazy, because you would think that Australia was mostly Flatland! It's the size of the continental US, with a population lower than Texas. Everyone here lives in the capital cities, and last I looked there were almost no tech jobs at all further up the coast between Sydney and Brisbane. I wonder if pandemic working from home is going to change this, some of our devs have already moved up the coast...
Probably because it's mostly desert
Re: ‘Housing in ‘07 wasn’t a bubble” is a true statement that almost no one believes
#27A Wall Street insider high up at a major USA bank once told me that 2008 was a media created phenomenon. There was no mortgage crises, leverage for sure, but nobody went to jail. Why did no one go to jail? Nothing was done wrong. It was a panic sparked by the media.
Re: ‘Housing in ‘07 wasn’t a bubble” is a true statement that almost no one believes
#28Really? It seems pretty obvious to me that we're in the middle of a huge bubble. The problem is the bubble may not pop for decades because propping up the bubble is government policy at every level from federal to state to local. And if they ever stop, tons of people will be totally screwed. Never mind that even more people are getting screwed by the bubble...
Re: ‘Housing in ‘07 wasn’t a bubble” is a true statement that almost no one believes
#29A Wall Street insider high up at a major USA bank once told me that 2008 was a media created phenomenon. There was no mortgage crises, leverage for sure, but nobody went to jail. Why did no one go to jail? Nothing was done wrong. It was a panic sparked by the media.
There are PLENTY of sources documenting the the faulty assumptions and collective delusion that led to the 2008 mortgage crisis happen. Blaming the media for the panic without acknowledging the very real and very large underlying issues sound like post hoc self justification.
Re: ‘Housing in ‘07 wasn’t a bubble” is a true statement that almost no one believes
#30But I think another big factor is that we are measuring inflation wrong. I think the various QE had the same effect than any other money printing in history, to drive prices up. But I think the way it was introduced (directly in the financial system, rather than paying people with it), meant that the inflation was localised into financial assets, and to the cost of anyone benefiting from higher financial assets (VC, asset and hedge fund managers, etc). So stock prices skyrocketed, as prime real estate prices, college tuitions, expensive restaurants, etc. But that's not captured by the various CPI indices.
Then came covid, with its new, massive rounds of QE. But this time the money printing was distributed to ordinary citizens through various furlough schemes, financed by deficits, pretty much directly financed by the central bank. And oh surprise, about a year later we see inflation jumping up massively.
So it may be that these inflation adjusted real estate prices charts aren't adjusted as they should.